Winning on FantasyDraft - Week 9

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Footballguys has partnered with FantasyDraft and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FantasyDraft's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FantasyDraft's prices:

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

• Everything is sorted by position
• I have converted my projections to FantasyDraft Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
• The Price column reflects FantasyDraft's Week 9 Price
• The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
• H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
• ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
• In the 2017 Cracking DFS books, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
• I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position. Players in blue represent potential boosts due to others scratching.

Expected Team Points

Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Here are the six NFL teams expected of scoring at least 24 points on this slate. Listed by descending expected team points:

• Seattle Seahawks (vs TB) - 28.75 points
• Oakland Raiders (vs DET) - 26.50 points
• Green Bay Packers (at LAC) - 25.75 points
• Minnesota Vikings (at KC) - 25.25 points
• Buffalo Bills (vs WAS) - 24.25 points
• Detroit Lions (at OAK) - 24.00 points

and two near misses

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at SEA) - 23.75 points
• New England Patriots (at BAL) - 23.75 points

Injury/Inactive Watch

• RB Rex Burkhead (Q) - I am currently projecting for him. If Burkhead scratches, RB James White ($8,400) is a must-play.
  
• WR Curtis Samuel (Q) - I am projecting him to play. If he scratches, D.J. Moore ($9,500) will get a significant boost. He is already a solid play, but this will be further entrenched on a Samuels scratch.
• WR Marquise Brown (Q) - I am projecting him to play. TE Mark Andrews would get the biggest bump if Brown scratches.
• WR Dede Westbrook (Q) - I am expecting him to play, but he has only partially practiced all week. If he scratches WR D.J. Chark becomes much more appealing.
• WR Davante Adams (Q) - I have him projected for a smaller than normal role, but he could also be held out of this contest. Fellow projector, Sigmund Bloom expects him to miss. If he misses, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling will take on an expanded role.

Situations that stand out to me this week

• RB Jaylen Samuels ($7,800) - He is the only healthy running back on the Steelers for this week and should see nearly all of the offensive snaps. At just $7,800 he is the free square of the week.
  
  
• Detroit Passing Offense vs Oakland Passing Defense - The Lions have averaged 324 yards and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game since week 5 while the Raiders are yielding 313 yards and 3.3 passing touchdowns during the same time frame.
  
  
• Oakland Passing Offense vs Detroit Passing Defense - The Raiders have generated 281 passing yards and 2.0 touchdowns through the air over the last 4 weeks. The Lions can't stop the pass and have yielded 314 yards and 3.3 touchdowns through the air over the same timeframe.
  
  
• Seattle Passing Offense vs Tampa Bay Passing Defense - The Seahawks are averaging 247 passing yards and 2.2 touchdowns over the last 4 weeks. The Buccaneers have yielded 255 yards and 3.0 touchdowns through the air during that same timeframe.
  
  
• Kansas City Passing Offense vs Minnesota Passing Defense - The Chiefs have averaged 264 yards and 2.0 passing touchdowns per game since week 5 while the Vikings are yielding 254 yards and 1.8 passing touchdowns during the same time frame.
  
  
• Minnesota Rush Offense vs Kansas City Rush Defense - The Vikings are averaging 165 yards and 1.0 touchdowns rushing per game over the last 4 weeks. Over those same 4 weeks, the Chiefs have yielded 140 yards and 1.5 touchdowns on the ground.
  
  
• Green Bay Rush Offense vs Los Angeles Chargers Rush Defense - The Packers are averaging 117 yards and 1.5 touchdowns on the ground since Week 5. The Chargers have yielded 144 yards and 1.0 touchdowns rushing over the last 4 weeks.
  
  

Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest RATIO)

• QB Philip Rivers / WR Keenan Allen (Cost = $22,100, FP = 35.4, Ratio = 1.60)
• QB Jameis Winston / WR Chris Godwin (Cost = $24,600, FP = 38.9, Ratio = 1.58)
• QB Carson Wentz / TE Zach Ertz (Cost = $19,600, FP = 30.7, Ratio = 1.57)
• QB Carson Wentz / WR Alshon Jeffery (Cost = $20,200, FP = 31.4, Ratio = 1.55)
• QB Mason Rudolph / WR Diontae Johnson (Cost = $18,800, FP = 29.2, Ratio = 1.55)
• QB Lamar Jackson / TE Mark Andrews (Cost = $22,100, FP = 33.8, Ratio = 1.53)
• QB Derek Carr / TE Darren Waller (Cost = $22,400, FP = 34.0, Ratio = 1.52)
• QB Jameis Winston / WR Mike Evans (Cost = $25,000, FP = 38.1, Ratio = 1.52)
• RB Lamar Jackson / WR Marquise Brown (Cost = $21,500, FP = 32.6, Ratio = 1.52)
• QB LeVeon Bell / TD New York Jets (Cost = $20,800, FP = 31.6, Ratio = 1.52)
• QB Philip Rivers / TE Hunter Henry (Cost = $20,700, FP = 31.4, Ratio = 1.52)
• QB Kyle Allen / WR D.J. Moore (Cost = $19,700, FP = 29.5, Ratio = 1.50)
• QB Philip Rivers / WR Mike Williams (Cost = $19,300, FP = 29.0, Ratio = 1.50)
• QB Josh Allen / WR Cole Beasley (Cost = $19,900, FP = 29.6, Ratio = 1.49)
• QB Josh Allen / WR John Brown (Cost = $22,800, FP = 33.3, Ratio = 1.46)
• QB Russell Wilson / WR Tyler Lockett (Cost = $27,400, FP = 39.5, Ratio = 1.44)
• QB Mason Rudolph / WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (Cost = $21,900, FP = 31.3, Ratio = 1.43)
• RB Matthew Stafford / WR Marvin Jones Jr (Cost = $24,000, FP = 33.9, Ratio = 1.41)
• QB Dalvin Cook / TD Minnesota Vikings (Cost = $22,300, FP = 31.0, Ratio = 1.39)
• QB Matt Moore / WR Tyreek Hill (Cost = $24,000, FP = 33.3, Ratio = 1.39)
• QB Matt Moore / TE Travis Kelce (Cost = $22,700, FP = 31.5, Ratio = 1.39)

Players for GPP differentiation

• QBs: Lamar Jackson, Matt Moore, Carson Wentz, Mason Rudolph, Mitchell Trubisky
• RBs: James White, Royce Freeman, Austin Ekeler, Damien Williams, Marlon Mack
• WRs: Diontae Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Mike Williams, DeVante Parker, Julian Edelman
• TEs: Jonnu Smith, Dallas Goedert, Mark Andrews, Noah Fant, TJ Hockenson
• Def: Miami, Tennessee, LA Chargers, Washington, Minnesota

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash Projected Points = (159.3)

• QB Russell Wilson, SEA - $13,900
• RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT - $7,800
• RB Nick Chubb, CLE - $13,100
• TE Zach Ertz, PHI - $8,700
• WR D.J. Moore, CAR - $9,500
• WR Keenan Allen, LAC - $11,900
• Flex: RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR - $18,700
• Flex: RB Philip Lindsay, DEN - $9,500
• TD Buffalo Bills - $6,800

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Cash+ LAC Stack Projected Points = (158.4)

• QB Philip Rivers, LAC - $10,200
• RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT - $7,800
• RB Nick Chubb, CLE - $13,100
• TE Darren Waller, OAK - $11,500
• WR Chris Godwin, TB - $13,700
• WR Keenan Allen, LAC - $11,900
• Flex: RB Le'Veon Bell, NYJ - $14,300
• Flex: RB Derrick Henry, TEN - $10,600
• TD Buffalo Bills - $6,800