Introduction
Before diving into the nitty-gritty of this week's bets, it is important to establish a few key concepts that will come up repeatedly throughout the season. First and foremost, all bets will be recommended with an accompanying unit amount, typically somewhere between 0.5 and 2.0 units. One unit should equate to approximately one-percent of your allotted bankroll that you use for wagering across various sports. Arguably the most important aspect of being a winning sports bettor is proper bankroll management. By wagering in accordance with the recommended unit amounts-- totaling to a small percentage of your bankroll each week- this will ensure that you are never risking more than you can afford to lose. Additionally, the sports betting market is just that, a market. Markets typically tend towards efficiency, especially when the market price- or betting line in this case- is established by many players risking large sums of money to establish the price. Historically, the most accurate estimate of what the correct price, or most accurate pregame projection of a game, is determined by the closing line of the game. The betting limits for games increase as more information, in the form of wagers, becomes available to bookmakers later in the week. Subsequently, the betting line movements leading up to kickoff ultimately move the betting line into place, settling at the most efficient public indicator of what the price should be at kickoff. Using the closing line, calculating closing line value becomes a fantastic measurement of a sound process in sports betting. Beating the closing line, or betting on a game at a better number than the game closes at, is extremely difficult, but also typically leads to sustainable long-term success.
One hypothetical example of beating the closing line would be betting on the Kansas City Chiefs at -4 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at -5.5. Here, the most efficient number is deemed to be -5.5, leaving the bettor with 1.5 points of closing value. Another hypothetical example, conversely, would be betting on the Carolina Panthers at +7 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at +4 at kickoff. In this example, there would be 3 points of closing line value for the wager on Carolina. As previously stated, consistently registering bets with positive closing line value is a great signal of a bettor who should find success in the future. This season, closing line value (CLV) will be tracked for all recommended wagers, along with the win-loss and profit-loss totals.
Results
Week 4 Review
- Buffalo Bills -3 (-112): WIN +1.25 units, CLV: +0.08pts
- New Orleans/Detroit u54 (-110): LOSS -1.1 units, CLV: +2.0pts
Week Profit: +0.15 units
Total Profit: -2.04 units
Total CLV: +5.88 points
In Week 4, we beat the closing line on both of our wagers. Surprisingly, we beat the closing line on the Detroit-New Orleans total by approximately 2.0 points, but that was the losing wager on the weekend. In breaking down that matchup, I noted that the dramatic uptick in defensive-pass-interference calls in 2020, which has been one of the driving forces behind the increased scoring across the league, would have minimal impact on this game. This season, Drew Brees had not pushed the ball down the field much whatsoever heading into Week 4, and DPI calls would not serve to benefit the Saints' offense at all in their matchup against the Lions if this continued, as expected. Surprisingly, both Drew Brees and Matt Stafford came out slinging the ball all over the field last weekend, including numerous deep attempts that drew critical DPI flags, and ultimately led to points on the board. The under, in this matchup, was doomed from the beginning. 14 points were scored within the first 5 minutes of the game, and 42 points scored throughout the first half, leaving us little hope of the full-game total staying under. Across the country, in Las Vegas, the Buffalo Bills handled business from start to finish in their matchup with the Raiders. As expected, Las Vegas' offense struggled to move the ball through the air efficiently without two starting wide receivers. Without Henry Ruggs, the Raiders' passing attack lacks a crucial deep-threat to stretch the field, allowing for Darren Waller to dominate on intermediate routes. On the other hand, Buffalo's offense continued to look like a well-oiled machine for the most part. Josh Allen's efficiency through the air continues to rank amongst the league's top quarterbacks. The team's optimized offensive attack should help Allen to sustain this remarkable level of play, and last weekend we were able to capitalize on his developments as a passer. In Week 4, we finished +0.15 units with over 2 points of closing-line-value. The recent results are encouraging, and now let's dive into where we will attempt to beat the market once again in Week 5.
NOTE: The second wager originally to be listed in this article involved the matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and New York Jets. This game's status is in jeopardy after at least one player on the Jets has tested positive for COVID. It remains to be seen whether or not this was a false-positive or whether any other players on the team have contracted the virus. At the time of this article's publication, the game has been removed from the list of available games to bet on this weekend. If/when the game is reposted for wagering, this article will be updated to include the analysis and recommended wager on the matchup. Follow me on Twitter for updates regarding article updates this week and throughout the season.
If there is value elsewhere on the board throughout the weekend, should this matchup between the Cardinals and Jets get postponed/canceled, this article may be updated with a second wager from another game as well.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-8.5, -105) | TOTAL: 54
Pick: Dallas Cowboys (-105), risk 1.05 units to win 1.0 unit at FanDuel Sportsbook
This weekend, the Dallas Cowboys play host to the New York Giants. At first, a clash between teams with a combined 1-7 record across the first four weeks of the season appears to be an unreasonable spot to find an eight-point spread at the betting market. In this case, however, the eight-point is not as high as the underlying metrics for each team suggest it truly should be, leading us to a 1.05-unit wager on the Dallas Cowboys -8 to win 1.0-unit.
Through four games, the Cowboys find themselves at 1-3 overall, and a half-game behind the NFC East-leading Philadelphia Eagles. Fortunately for Cowboys' fans, after digging deeper into each team in the division, this team is undeniably the most talented in the division, and they are still the favorites to finish atop the standings. Under Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys' offense has transitioned to a more analytically-sound and pass-heavy attack this season. The bad news, to this point in the season, for Dallas is that they have been one of the unluckiest teams in the NFL thus far. Research has proven that, for the most part, the ability to generate turnovers on defense and avoid them on offense consistently is primarily attributable to luck, except at the extremes-- like Jameis Winston throwing 30 interceptions last season. One month into the season, the Cowboys have turned the ball over nine times on offense while generating just two turnovers on the defensive side of the ball-- this -7 turnover differential is the worst mark in the league. Expect Dallas' horrid turnover luck to turn around in the coming weeks, resulting in an improving win-loss record to go along with their more impressive underlying numbers. Overall, once a few bounces finally go in favor of the Cowboys, it will spell trouble for their opponents, especially with the variety of weapons scattered around this offense, which features 4 different players averaging over 50 receiving-yards-per-game. This weekend against the New York Giants, the Cowboys' offense will have a massive advantage over the Giants' defense, which has struggled against one of the league's softer schedules across the opening month of the season.
On the offensive side of the football, the opening to the New York Giants' season has been one of the worst in recent memory. Through 16 quarters of football, the Giants have mustered only 3 offensive touchdowns. While it certainly does not help that the G-men have been without a handful of their top playmakers across these four games, struggling to this extent is extremely concerning. Simply put, there are no redeeming qualities for this unit-- Daniel Jones ranks 29th in the NFL in net-yards-per-pass-attempt, New York's rushing attack ranks 31st in the league in total rushing yards and 24th in yards-per-carry, and the offensive line is to blame for much of these struggles. The Giants' offensive line is one of the worst units in the NFL; according to FootballGuys' Matt Bitonti, this unit grades as the fourth-worst unit in the league overall. Earlier this season, I noted that I was skeptical of Joe Judge as a head coach, especially when paired with Jason Garrett as the team's offensive coordinator. After re-evaluating this stance four games into the season, this coaching staff may truly be worse than I originally expected. Garrett's old-school philosophies calling the team's offense, especially when combined with a horrific offensive line and a young quarterback that struggles to process information quickly, is the biggest hinderance to this offense's productivity. There are simple ways to make a quarterback's job easier in the modern NFL-- like pre-snap motion, play-action, and an up-tempo offense-- and Garrett neglects all of these subtle edges available to him that could surely improve his offense's efficiency. In sum, even against Dallas' defense, which has struggled throughout the first month of the season, there is no reason to believe that the Giants will turn in anything resembling a league-average performance on the offensive side of the football.
Given the Cowboys' remarkable edge on the offensive side of the football, coupled with the Giants' ineptitude with the ball in their hands, the Cowboys should be approximately 10.4-point favorites this weekend. At the current line of -8.5 (-105) available at FanDuel Sportsbook, we have a 1.05-unit wager on Dallas to cover the spread and potentially net 1.0-units.
Summary of Picks
- Dallas Cowboys -8.5 (-105), risk 1.05 units to win 1.0 unit
As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any feedback, questions, comments, or concerns about this article!
