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We’re entering the holiday season, which means the fantasy playoffs are around the corner. Hopefully, your squad is still fighting with a shot to make it to the dance. However, the NFL gave us another chaotic product in Week 11 for us to digest. We’ve got less time to react with the added games on Thursday, so let’s get to my lessons learned from this past week. Happy Thanksgiving!
Quarterback: Josh Allen, Bills
Week 11 Results: (Projected) 29.8, (Actual) 18.2
Josh Allen has been worth his draft cost through Week 11. He’s the QB3 and even ahead of Patrick Mahomes II in total points scored. But Allen hasn’t looked like the QB3, and the entire offense hasn’t made sense after baffling losses to the Jaguars and Colts. He’s finished outside of the Top 12 in two of the last three weeks and has a rough schedule ahead. There might be some growing pains, but he’s worth trusting as we get closer to the fantasy playoffs.
Advice Moving Forward:
Josh Allen is still a QB1 moving forward. However, adjustments to the Bills’ offense may cause more volatility in his week-to-week production.
It’s fair to be concerned about Allen after the last few weeks. But try finding a suitable replacement for him. The Bills are still top-5 in pass rate over expectation (PROE), and Allen is top-5 in total rushing and red-zone rushing attempts. However, we should try and understand what’s happening to Buffalo’s offense. Let’s start with how defenses are attacking them.
Like Patrick Mahomes II, teams have primarily used zone coverage to limit Allen. Defenses can keep the wide receivers in check while still holding Allen’s rushing in check. But theoretically, more defenders in coverage would leave fewer upfront resulting in less pressure. Not so fast. Allen was 9th in pressure rate through the first two months of the season. The offensive line has improved over the last two weeks, but the defensive scheme isn’t the only issue. Another part is the offense itself.
Buffalo’s passing rate, and Allen’s improvement as a passer, put them on the map in 2020. As I mentioned before, they’re top-5 in PROE. And, their pass-happy nature extends into their playcalling on first down. Allen has dropped back to pass 17% more than expected on a fresh set of downs. However, his early misfires have led to stalled drives and have directly impacted his fantasy point total, as the chart indicates a near-dependent relationship between the two.
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