One of the trickiest things to navigate as you approach your draft is how much -- or how little -- to react to soundbites from offseason workouts and the resulting swings in Average Draft Position (ADP). Sometimes when a player's ADP peaks this time of year, circumstances warrant it. But all too often, surges in ADP before training camps and preseason games begin are the results of groupthink and confirmation bias within the fantasy football community, creating landmines fantasy gamers must carefully avoid.
Below is a list of five wide receivers currently selected inside the Top 150 whose ADP has increased significantly in PPR leagues since June 1st (ADP data via Underdog Fantasy). Should you follow the herd and buy high, or is it time to bail on their inflated price tags?
Where we started: Pick 200
Where are we now: Pick 150
Why the rise? Both NBC Sports Boston's Tom Curran and The Boston Herald's Andrew Callahan expect Meyers to be the No. 1 wide receiver in New England despite the additions of Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne.
Do we have it right? No
There are caveats here. Meyers earned buzz in training camp as a rookie in 2019, was the best pass-catcher on the team in 2020, and enters 2021 as the only wide receiver on the team with experience in the offense. He was always deserving of a pick inside the Top 150, so in a sense, Meyers’ ADP is now where it belongs.
While you won’t lose your draft taking Meyers in Round 12, you will forfeit the chance to add a high-upside player to your bench. Meyers -- even as the WR1 in New England -- has no ceiling. Suppose the beat writers are correct, and Meyers leads the Patriots in targets.
Why should we care?
New England ranked 31st in pass attempts and 32nd in red-zone pass attempts in 2020, which led to Meyers scoring zero touchdowns. With Agholor, Bourne, Jonnu Smith, and Hunter Henry now competing for a slice of that tiny passing-game pie, how can you ever feel good about plugging Meyers into your starting lineup?
If you’re shopping for wide receiver help in this range of your draft, target the next player on this list in the previous round.
Where we started: Pick 151
Where are we now: Pick 135
Why the rise? Campbell said he is 100% recovered from the PCL tear that ended his 2021 season in Week 2, reminding fantasy managers of his existence.
Do we have it right? Yes
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