It's Not Just About Waiting Anymore
This was supposed to be my annual late-round tight end article.
Every year around this time, I make the same argument:
Spending a second- or third-round pick on a tight end carries too much opportunity cost now that no one offers the weekly edge over the average starting tight end that peak Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski used to.
The middle rounds are typically worse. The next 10 tight ends after Brock Bowers and Trey McBride are packed so tightly in our projections that you often end up paying a premium for production you can find much later.
Waiting until the late rounds lets you stockpile depth at running back and wide receiver, where you'll need multiple starters and enough depth to survive injuries and draft busts, without sacrificing much at tight end compared to your leaguemates.
Then I started drafting.
A few teams in, I realized late-round tight end isn't the only way to win the position this season. It's still my favorite approach. You'll still get my favorite late-round breakout candidates. We'll get there eventually. But this year, the conversation has to start at the top.
The Luxury Tier
From 2018 through 2022, Travis Kelce routinely outscored replacement-level tight ends by six points per game. Last season, Bowers, McBride, and George Kittle offered roughly half that advantage, making it hard to justify passing on similarly priced running backs and wide receivers. This year feels different.
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas
If you want the in-depth bull case for Bowers as a true difference-maker, Jeff Bell has you covered in our Player Spotlight series. The short version is that Bowers remains on a historic career trajectory despite an injury-marred sophomore season. He gets a meaningful coaching upgrade, at least a modest improvement at quarterback, and plays in a passing game without a high-end wide receiver to challenge him for targets.
In half-point PPR, our projections have Bowers at 14.33 points per game. His projected edge over a mid-range starter is five points per week, which borders on prime-Kelce territory. Spending up for Bowers probably means passing on a receiver in the A.J. Brown range or a running back like Ken Walker III. Both could easily return full value at ADP. Neither can give you the head start against your opponent each week that Bowers does.
Why Not Trey McBride?
McBride is defensible as a late-second or early-third-round pick. In setting the NFL single-season record for receptions by a tight end and catching 11 touchdowns, he outscored league-average starting tight ends by 5.5 points in 2025.
But to say McBride had a lot of wind at his back in 2025 would be putting it mildly. Marvin Harrison Jr. missed five games. Arizona's running back room was strafed by injury. The Cardinals defense gave up the most points in franchise history and, as a result, averaged the most pass attempts of any team in football.
It would take a minor miracle for all those conditions to line up the same way this year. Jeremiyah Love, Tyler Allgeier, and James Conner give Arizona one of the league's deepest backfields. A healthier defense should keep more games from turning into pass-heavy shootouts. And none of that accounts for the possibility the Cardinals decide they need a long look at Carson Beck before next year's draft, which would leave McBride with a rookie third-round quarterback during the fantasy playoffs.