Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) is playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week. With the Holiday week, we are going to do things just a little bit differently. We are going to give our two favorite Thanksgiving Day props on Thursday morning and then add the top three weekend plays on Friday.
Week 14 Review
- Last Week: +7
- Season Total: +6
We had a big week and it was primarily due to going 2-for-3 on the 4X touchdown props we have been running hot on.
Week 14 Picks
- 5: Steelers-Vikings TDs (+3): We got a combined five touchdowns from Najee Harris, Justin Jefferson, and Dalvin Cook and cruised to the over of 2.5 touchdowns.
- 4: Bucs-Bills TDs: (-1) We got the high-scoring game we hoped for but a pair of quarterback rushing touchdowns combined with some random scorers (Breshad Perriman, Gabriel Davis, etc.) kept us under 2.5 for our trio.
- 3: Windy in KC?: (+2) The blowout helped here because it looked like Patrick Mahomes II was headed towards more than the 258 yards he ended up with. Derek Carr came in just below his 267.5 line with 263 passing yards.
- 2: Reading the Room For Rams: (0) Darrell Henderson scratched so this one was null.
- 1: Rams-Cardinals TDs (+3) James Conner has been one of the MVPs of our 4X touchdown hot streak and came through with another two-touchdown game. Cooper Kupp came through with a touchdown to get us our over.
5: Wily vets on Thursday night
- Footballguys consensus projection is 71 receiving yards for Kelce, so we are getting some value on the over. The consensus projection for Allen is 79 receiving yards, so also getting a handful of yards worth of value on this side, as well.
- Allen has at least 10 targets in each of his last five games against the Chiefs. He averaged 8.0 catches for 81.4 yards and 0.8 touchdowns in those games.
L’Jarius Sneed (personal reasons) and Willie Gay Jr Jr (COVID list) won’t play tomorrow. Andrew Wylie (knee) is questionable.— Matt McMullen (@KCChiefs_Matt) December 15, 2021
- The Chiefs defense may be without a number of key starters. L'Jarius Sneed and Willie Gay Jr are out. Plus, there are some reports that Chris Jones and potentially others will be out for tonight’s game.
- Kelce has been on a cold streak but this could be a strong spot for him. The Chargers defense is designed to try to take away the deep ball and live with completed passes underneath. Kelce had his second-biggest game of the season (104 receiving yards) against this defense in Week 3.
Travis Kelce has been held under 30 yards in two consecutive games.— Scott Loring (@ChiefsChannel) December 14, 2021
That’s the first time in 136 career games in which that has happened.
4: Low Bar in Pittsburgh
- While we probably should not expect major passing fireworks in Pittsburgh, both of these numbers feel a bit too low. We also have a very strong correlation play because this game has such clearly divergent potential game scripts. If Tennessee controls the game, it will likely be with a slow-paced run-heavy attack. If the Steelers are able to stop the run and force the Titans to pass, we get more plays on both sides and a higher-scoring game becomes much more likely.
- To put it more succinctly, if Ryan Tannehill throws for 200-plus yards, Ben Roethlisberger is highly likely to throw for 241-plus. In a spot where we get 3X, this correlation pushes this dual prop towards +EV territory.
- Getting Julio Jones back last week, even in a limited role (45% of snaps), gave Tannehill a small boost. He threw for 191 yards despite the fact that the defense shut out Jacksonville and there was no need to be aggressive any time in the second half.
- For one of the first times all season, in the second half of the Week 14 matchup against the Vikings, Roethlisberger looked closer to the guy who led the league in passing yards just three years ago.
- Roethlisberger is averaging a very healthy 37.9 passing attempts per game this season.
- This play is also based in part on a gut feeling that Roethlisberger is going to go out on a relatively high note. He has only two more career games left in Pittsburgh. Expect him to be laser-focused in preparation this week.
Over his last eight games, Ben Roethlisberger is averaging 254 passing yards per game with 15 touchdown passes and three interceptions. That's a 4,000-yard season with 30 TDs and 6 ints over a 16-game stretch.— Dale Lolley (@dlolley_pgh) December 16, 2021
3: TB-NO tds?
- We should not be getting 4X for a 2.5 touchdown total in these types of games, so we should take advantage of the opportunity while we can. We have this trio projected for 2.4 touchdowns, so this prop would look solid even at a 2X payout.
- These touchdown props are clearly positive EV in games with solid totals that feature dominant running backs. We get a pair of Top 5 backs in this matchup.
- In the Footballguys running back rankings for Week 15, Leonard Fournette and Alvin Kamara rank second and fourth, respectively.
- Fournette is second in the NFL in red zone carries (41) and tied with Davante Adams for 5th in red-zone targets (18).
- He has been getting true workhorse usage in what is arguable the league’s best offense. Fournette played 80% or more of the snaps just one in the first 11 weeks of the season. He has topped 80% of snaps in every week since then, scoring six touchdowns in those three games.
- While the Buccaneers have a tough run defense, Kamara has still scored at least one touchdown in each of his last three matchups against Tampa and has 10 touchdowns in 9 career games.
- Kamara has scored at least one touchdown in five straight games.
- The third member of our group is very much up for debate. A strong case can be made for any of the Buccaneers' top three pass catchers: Rob Gronkowski, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin. However, our lean is very slightly towards Godwin given his recent usage and the individual matchups.
- Godwin has been targeted 32 times over the past two weeks and looks to have emerged as Brady’s favorite target. He was targeted 12 times in the Week 8 matchup against the Saints when he put up an 8-140-1 receiving line.
- The Saints have only allowed three touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season, tied for fourth-lowest in the NFL making this a difficult matchup for Gronkowski. Evans is likely to have yet another battle with top cornerback Marshon Lattimore.
2: Rushing Value in Chicago
- While this is not necessarily a great correlation play, there is too much value on both sides of this to pass up.
- Dalvin Cook and David Montgomery rank third and eighth in our Week 15 running back rankings, respectively.
- The Footballguys consensus projection is 98 yards for Cook and 75 yards for Montgomery. That is 9.5 yards of positive value on Cook and 15.5 on Montgomery.
- We are getting two true workhorse backs in offenses that have been heating up in recent weeks.
- Montgomery played the 4th-most snaps amongst all running backs in Week 14 (83%) and is one of just six running backs who has had at least 15 touches in every game since Week 9.
- Cook had 27 carries for 205 yards last week in a must-win matchup against the Steelers. He is again going to get as many touches as he can handle.
- Cook ran for 228 yards in two matchups against the Bears last season, with 34 touches in the first meeting and 29 in the second.
- The last time Montgomery faced the Vikings, he had a career-high 32 carries for 146 yards.
1: Bears-Vikings TDs
- We are going to double down on our belief in this spot for Dalvin Cook and David Montgomery (see above for reasoning).
- When these two teams matched up in Week 15 last season, Montgomery and Cook touched the ball a combined total of 62 times and scored three touchdowns. Both these teams are going to want their offense to flow through their star backs.
- Montgomery again played 100% of the Bears' red zone snaps last week and Cook missed just a single red-zone snap for the Vikings.
- Not only do we get a sweet one-two punch at running back, but we also get one of the top wide receivers in the league, Justin Jefferson, as the cherry on top of our sundae.
- Over the last five weeks, Jefferson has averaged 12.0 targets, 7.8 catches, 131.2 yards, and 0.8 touchdowns per game.
- Not only is Jefferson still seeing as many deep targets as any player in the league, but he has also stepped into a more prominent red zone role since Adam Thielen got injured. Over the first 10 games, he saw double-digit red zone targets just two times. Since the Thielen injury, he has had double-digit red-zone targets in every single game.