Pick-a-Player: Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Patrick Mahomes

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The premise of a Pick-a-Player question is as follows:

• Three comparable players are available.
• The draft is at a stage where these players are usually drafted.
• You can take one of them or pass on all three for someone else.

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Today's Pick-a-Player

It's the 1.02 pick in a 12-team, PPR, superflex draft. The players listed below are off the board. Would you take Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, or Patrick Mahomes II? Or would you pass on all three?

Starting Lineup:

• 1 quarterback
• 2 running backs
• 3 wide receivers
• 1 tight end
• 1 superflex (QB/RB/WR/TE)
• 1 kicker
• 1 defense

Players Taken:

• RB Christian McCaffrey, Carolina

The Results

And the winner is -- Mahomes. See the percentages below.

Comments from the Footballguys Staff

Jason Wood

Dalvin Cook is the choice. While Mahomes is great, I don't think there's enough of a gap between him and the other top quarterbacks to justify the selection at 1.02. Cook remains one of the few workhorses left in the NFL, on a team as committed to the run as any organization outside of the Tennessee Titans.

Troy King

Patrick Mahomes II. If I had the 1.01 pick in this draft, I would have taken him there. In superflex, I always want a stud quarterback, so this choice was fairly easy for me.

Anthony Amico

I would take Cook in this spot for a lot of the reasons Jason said. Even in superflex, there are a lot of starters required at the skill positions. I don't mind being a little lighter at quarterback.

Andy Hicks

I take Patrick Mahomes II if I don’t know my leaguemates. superflex can cause a run on quarterbacks early. The choice between starting Patrick Mahomes II and, let’s say, Matt Ryan or starting Matt Ryan and Baker Mayfield is an easy choice. With 21 selections between picks here, if there is a run between my first and second choices, I can potentially spend the rest of my draft chasing my tail. If I take Mahomes, I am confident that elite options at all other positions will be available at my next two picks.

If I know my league and believe a quarterback run will not happen, Alvin Kamara is my choice. In four seasons, his floor is 81 receptions. In three of his four seasons, 13 touchdowns are his floor. Dalvin Cook has his injury injuries and now has two strong backups at running back.

Phil Alexander

Team Cook. Let the other managers in your league fight over the top quarterbacks in the first two rounds while you load up on studs at the skill positions, where there is more variance in weekly scoring. As long as you come out of the first five to six rounds with two quarterbacks, you'll be in fine shape at the position and should have edges elsewhere on your roster.

Jeff Haseley

In superflex, I'm looking at three players in the top three, and two of them are quarterbacks. The second pick depends on who is selected #1. Patrick Mahomes II has proven that he belongs among the top quarterbacks in the league every year, provided he has Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill as his mainstay targets. Mahomes without one or both is another story. He'll need to prove to me that he is still in that upper echelon of talent if and when that happens. For now, he is my 1.01. The second pick for me is Josh Allen. Not only is he a capable quarterback in the pocket, but he can also run and be a dual-threat fantasy scorer. The rapport he has established with Stefon Diggs should continue in 2021 and beyond. I can also make an argument for Allen ahead of Mahomes; it all comes back to his rushing ability in addition to his strong-armed talents with an adequate supporting cast.

Jordan McNamara

In superflex, Patrick Mahomes II is the great equalizer. He can make up for mistakes at other points on your roster or lineup and has a combination of elite floor and ceiling that running backs don't have. I agree with the idea of waiting on a quarterback but after Mahomes.

Ryan Weisse

Take Mahomes as fast as you can. He should have gone first. McCaffrey is nice. However, in superflex, quarterbacks will go as quickly, and you aren't picking again until the end of the second round.

Matt Waldman

Mahomes. While there is greater scoring variability with non-quarterbacks, there is also a higher annual turnover among top fantasy performers at those positions. Most superflex formats see passers leave the board early, and I want at least one quality option. Give me Mahomes early, and I can then watch how the draft unfolds to determine whether I prefer to take another passer or wait for my second and third options.

Ryan Hester

Despite increased demand at quarterback due to the superflex format, the running back and wide receiver positions are still more valuable. An elite RB1 typically provides more points over the RB16 than the QB1 does over the QB16. Every year, we see quarterbacks emerge off the waiver wire as well. Because of that, I'd prefer to select Cook.

Victoria Geary

Mahomes. There's more likely to be a run on elite quarterbacks by the time you get to your second pick.

James Brimacombe

Dalvin Cook if I am chasing the potential upside. He showed that he was a league-winner last year, and he is right in the prime of his career, which still feels like the arrow is pointing up for him. Mahomes would be the pick if I just wanted to play it safe and hope for a huge stats and MVP-like season from him.

Pat Fitzmaurice

Mahomes. Forcing picks at quarterback isn't necessary for superflex leagues, but it's still worth paying respect to the basic economy of superflex. You can win with a late-round quarterback strategy, but why swim upstream when presented with an opportunity as good as this? The chance to lock in a high-ceiling, high-floor star at this critical position is too good to pass up, especially knowing that all the other difference-making quarterbacks will be gone by the time you pick again.

Chad Parsons

In redraft, I side with stud running back over stud quarterback at these high-end price points. In dynasty, that flips to quarterback, especially if the running backs in question are 25-26 years old like Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara. One aspect not discussed thus far is scoring playing a factor. Most formats are four-point passing touchdowns. If venturing to six-point passing touchdowns, the gap widens between the top quarterbacks and the field. Give me Dalvin Cook here in the workhorse role over Kamara with some variable of quarterback and being more high-target-mandatory for a high-RB1 ceiling.

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mstrpalmer

Gotta be Mahomes in superflex. Running back is a gamble, and neither of those options is definitively better than the other. (But if I were in that position, I'd probably try to be super smart and take Kamara to prove everyone wrong, LOL).

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Nick Danger Mean

I wouldn't draft a quarterback until the 10th round unless somebody falls super far.

Joey Landry

Dalvin cook without a doubt! The first round is way too early to take a quarterback! I also think Kamara’s numbers will be down with a quarterback who can throw downfield.

Select Comments from The Shark Pook

Gally

I go Mahomes as the safest of the three (injury-wise). With my early picks, I want safe with an extremely high floor, and Mahomes in a superflex is the best of both worlds for that. Add in that he also has a high ceiling, which makes for an easy pick for me.

Duckboy

I went with Cook here as the only other consideration. He and McCaffrey are the only ones I would consider to be as safe a bet to be the top running back. Otherwise, Mahomes and then likely several other quarterbacks would be next before Kamara or the next running backs or wide receivers. I would rather take Cook and grab a couple of quarterbacks at the next turn if they make sense.

RC94

I would take Mahomes at 1.01 in a superflex, so if I'm picking 1.02 and he's available, I would run to hit the draft button.

That one guy

Going at it from a redraft vantage point and wanting to force myself to think differently than normal:

Using one of my superflex leagues for reference, the gap between overall QB1 and QB13 was 8 points per game, and the gap down to QB25 was a mere 13 points per game. For running backs, the gap from overall #1 to #13 was 10 points per game, and the gap down to #25 at 14 points per game.

I was expecting to find the scoring to favor running backs and create the position scarcity we always reference in trade evaluations. It’s certainly a larger points-per-game differential, but nothing wild by any stretch.

Maybe I’ll zig here for running back while others would zag for a quarterback, but more than likely, I’m succumbing to conventional wisdom once on the clock and taking Mahomes.

rockaction

I never want to be weak at quarterback or have had a quarterback run before I've even picked mine, so Mahomes, Jackson, or Kyler Murray depending on the scoring format. If it's standard four-point touchdown passes and four points for every hundred yards passing while still having standard rushing points, I'd seriously think heavily about Jackson or Murray.

Gally

The only thing that would prevent me from going that route is that the risk is much higher on Jackson/Murray than on Mahomes. With my first-round pick, I want to minimize risk because I can find upside later, and risk early really hurts if that risk happens. Plus Mahomes still has the high ceiling potential so you aren't losing too much there either.

rockaction

I thought of your reasoning when picking mine and was going to point the average finishes of Jackson and Murray in either median points per game (a stat that is posited as being stickier than average points-per-game) or rank-ordered finish the past two years under the aforementioned scoring standards, but didn't have an effective resource off the top of my head.

I think Jackson was by far No. 1 in 2019 for four-point passing touchdown leagues. He was eighth or ninth last year in a six-point passing touchdown league last year, so it's not like you're missing out on an expected top twelve guy by taking him, especially in the four-point format, because I think that he had a clear below-average year last year compared to what we can expect. But that's my personal take on Jackson. I think last year was, if not his floor (that's too extreme given he missed no games to injury), then at least a year where we saw a downturn in production that will have been an aberration for him.

But I think I'm with you on sticking with Mahomes. It's just, to be honest, I don't like his supporting cast anymore. I don't care for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and I don't like that they have Kelce, Hill, and nobody else to really speak of. So the other guys (Jackson and Murray) and their rushing dynamism creep up in there.

One last thing: I didn't list Josh Allen because he's rushing touchdown-dependent for his overall rushing points and I expect him to regress in the number of goal-line and inside-the-five touches he keeps for himself. I think Moss will eat into that, even though they were largely by design. I think they'll call for less punishment up there in Buffalo. Can't have him getting hurt. Jackson's the same in that he can't get hurt, but that's another story altogether as his running is more integral to his game, even more so than Allen. Murray has already said this off-season that he'd like to scramble less this year, but we'll see about that. Edmonds and Conner are not likely to be workhouse backs that siphon off Murray's carries. Edmonds's size and Conner's looking bad from injury might not give the Cardinals that luxury.

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