Prop Talk Week 9

Below are some props that you should keep your eye on as you head into Week 9.

All props are coming from DraftKings Sportsbook lines and be sure to keep checking back throughout the weekend as props are added over the course of the 24 hours prior to the game. The number of props will largely depend on the recommended plays, but typically we stay around 5. We will not be forcing the number of props just to meet a number as if it is on here, it is deemed a good play

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Week 8 Recap 2-3

Not the greatest week last week going 2-3. The Jacksonville/Seattle game was a killer as having the over on both sides of it and neither quarterback hitting was a tough one.

Trevor Lawrence Over 241.5 Passing Yards- Loss
Justin Fields Under 187.5 Passing Yards- WIn
Geno Smith Over 218.5 Passing Yards- Loss
Derrick Henry Over 103.5 Rushing Yards- Loss
Damien Harris Over 70.5 Rushing Yards- Win

Week 8 Plays

Baker Mayfield Over 232.5 Passing Yards

Look, if you’ve followed this article, or just any of my content, you’ll know that even as a Browns fan, I’m one of the biggest Baker Mayfield haters in the industry. However, this number is too low this week. Baker is a very emotional player, and he is going to want to do nothing more than come out and have a great game to prove the naysayers wrong (myself included) that he is not the problem. The matchup is looking like a very favorable one as the Bengals have a very strong run defense led by defensive tackle D.J. Reader, but their passing defense has left a lot to be desired. Mike White threw for 405 yards last week against this defense, and four quarterbacks this season have topped 300 yards against the Bengals. Look for Baker and the Browns offense to get back on track this week.

Mac Jones Under 233.5 Passing Yards

Carolina’s pass defense has been a significant investment this season and it is paying off. This is a defense that invested in A.J Bouye, Keith Taylor, Jaycee Horn (who is injured) in the offseason and made a big trade this season acquiring Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore played his first game last week (albeit 32% of snaps) and gets to see his former team this week. The Panthers have allowed just one quarterback to throw for over 203 yards since Week 1. Mac Jones has not topped 233.5 passing yards on the road this season.

A.J. Dillon Over 37.5 Rushing Yards

This one is a little bit confusing. With no Aaron Rodgers this week, one would think that we would expect to see a lot of the Packers rushing attack. Dillon has a fairly significant role in this offense even as the backup running back as over his last five games, Dillon has 15, 8, 11, 3, 16 with the 3 carries being a game against Washington who has one of the worst pass defenses in football. The Chiefs run defense is a middle of the pack defense, but they have allowed four running backs over their last three games to top 37.5 rushing yards.

David Johnson Under 37.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

The Sportsbooks believe David Johnson will play a role in this game, however the stats from last week may indicate otherwise. David Johnson was on the field for just 18% of the snaps last week which was behind Scottie Phillips and Rex Burkhead. Part of this was due to the blowout as the score became lopsided very quickly, but even when it was still close Johnson was splitting series with Scottie Phillips and Phillip Lindsay. With the Texans having nothing to play for at this point, the trade of Mark Ingram may indicate more about their desire to increase the workload for Scottie Phillips than it does the handing of the reigns to David Johnson.

Tyreek Hill Over 6.5 Receptions

Tyreek Hill’s usage over the last five weeks has been incredible as they are utilizing him more as a possession receiver than they have in years past. While his average yards-per-catch is just 11.5 (it hasn’t been below 14.7 since his rookie year), he is on pace to crush his season high catch total. Through 8 games, Tyreek Hill is averaging 11.3 targets per game, and over his last 5 games he is averaging 12.8 targets. With Travis Kelce struggling and his targets are down compared to last year (9.6 to 8.8). The Packers don’t have any corners to keep up with Hill’s speed, so expect them to once again go to him early and often.