Below are some props that you should keep your eye on as you head into Week 19.
All props are coming from DraftKings Sportsbook lines and be sure to keep checking back throughout the weekend as props are added over the course of the 24 hours prior to the game. The number of props will largely depend on the recommended plays, but typically we stay around 5. We will not be forcing the number of props just to meet a number as if it is on here, it is deemed a good play
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Week 19 Recap
Just when I thought things couldn’t get worse this season, they did. Another winless week. The only thing lower than the bankroll at the moment is the confidence as both are just shattered. To be 4-15 over the last four weeks is simply embarrassing.
Damien Harris Over 56.5 Rushing Yards- Loss
Ja’Marr Chase Under 71.5 Receiving Yards- Loss
Leonard Fournette Over 31.5 Receiving Yards- Push
Rob Gronkowski Over 58.5 Receiving Yard- Loss
Kyler Murray Over 253.5 Passing Yards- Loss
|
Wk1 |
Wk2 |
Wk3 |
Wk4 |
Wk5 |
Wk6 |
Wk7 |
Wk8 |
Wk9 |
Wk10 |
Wk11 |
Wk12 |
Wk13 |
Wk14 |
Wk15 |
Wk16 |
Wk17 |
Wk18 |
Wk19 |
Total |
|
3-2 |
1-4 |
2-3 |
2-3 |
3-2 |
4-1 |
4-1 |
2-3 |
3-2 |
1-4 |
0-5 |
2-3 |
3-2 |
3-4 |
3-2 |
0-5 |
2-3 |
2-3 |
0-4 |
40-56 |
Week 20 Plays- 5 Plays this week
Derrick Henry Over 79.5 Rushing Yards
This is an interesting one as we have zero history of Derrick Henry coming back from a long-term injury as prior to this injury, Henry had missed just two games in his career. However, what we do have is history of how the Titans have handled other injuries. The Titans are a team in which they historically have not eased players back into the lineup as evidenced by A.J. Brown’s return and had 11 receptions for 145 yards against the 49ers. This is a game in which Henry has 20 or more carries in seven of his eight games this season with the only game that he didn’t was a Week 1 loss in which the game script eliminated Henry as the Titans were down 24-6 at half time. Footballguys has Henry projected for 90 rushing yards this week.
Joe Mixon Under 59.5 Rushing Yards
Mixon has been a bit lackluster since right tackle Riley Reiff was injured back in Week 12. Since Week 12, Mixon has ran for 54, 58, 58, 65, 46, and 48 yards. The Bengals have utilized Mixon over the last three games more as a receiver than usual as he has caught 17 passes over the last three weeks compared to 16 receptions in the prior 8 games. This indicates to me that the team recognizes there is a problem with the running game without Reiff and are trying to find other ways to get Mixon the ball. This week, the Bengals are facing one of the league’s best run defenses as the Titans have allowed just 64 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs which is the second-best in the NFL this season. The Titans have not allowed over 59.5 rushing yards since Week 8 where Jonathan Taylor ran for 70 yards.
Deebo Samuel Over 53.5 Receiving Yards
This is one of the biggest disparities in terms of projections and props that we’ve seen in quite some time. Footballguys has Deebo projected for 76 receiving yards this week. Over his last five games, Samuel has topped 53.5 yards in four of those appearances with the only one he failed to do so being the last game out against Dallas. Deebo is a mismatch wherever he is on the field and they the 49ers are going to find ways to get him the ball this week. The Packers did shut down Samuel in their first matchup as he had just 52 yards which is likely where this prop is coming from, but that was back in Week 3 which Deebo’s role has grown exponentially since Week 3 this season.
Travis Kelce Under 69.5 Receiving Yards
Travis Kelce has been boom or bust this season, but draws a very difficult matchup this week against the Bills who will likely be covering him with a combination of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde who are two of the best safeties in the NFL. On the year, the Bills are allowing the sixth-fewest yards to the tight end position and no tight end this year has topped 69.5 yards including Kelce back in Week 5 in which he had just 57 yards. Kelce has had a down season compared to his standard, but does have the ability to have a major game at any point, but expect the Chiefs to attack the Bills corners in this game who are without Tre’Davious White and their second corner in Dane Jackson has struggled this season trying to fill in.
George Kittle Under 51.5 Receiving Yards
Part of the losing streak that we’ve been on has been trying to bet on regression to the mean for certain players that are coming off of a big game, or that have struggled that will have a big game. This week, we’re going the opposite of what we would typically do and taking George Kittle under 51.5 Receiving Yards. Kittle has been abysmal over the last four weeks as he has just 78 total yards over the four-game timeframe (19.5 average). This week, Kittle faces the 49ers in frigid temperatures that should be around 5 degrees at game time. Kittle beat the Packers in their first game this season as he had 92 yards receiving, but with the Packers getting Jaire Alexander back this week, they should be able to put an extra emphasis on Kittle while Alexander stays in one-on-one coverage.
