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Disclaimer
NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. A swing pass to the third-string fullback can heavily alter the leader boards. Showdown can be a fun way to enjoy a Prime Time game, or it can be an entire DFS portfolio. No matter the reason for playing, fortune favors the bold, and this article will never tell you a player is off-limits; even the third-string fullback. There are some cases where a great play will be so highly owned that their upside isn't worth losing the opportunity to be contrarian by fading them.
This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting with the Captain having a salary premium to correspond with the scoring premium. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and flex, so just play either a quarterback or running back in that spot. There are scenarios where a wide receiver can pay off, but it’s difficult with it being the 0.5 per reception.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head lineups use median projections but a little variation goes a long way towards not getting duplicated.
Game Strategy
The Internet sleuths strike again after sniffing out Vegas' casual flip of the spread from Dallas -2.5 to Minnesota -3. A 5.5 point swing is massive, and is a clear indicator that Dak Prescott will not be available for the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. With Cooper Rush getting the starting nod, all Cowboys fantasy options will be downgraded; at least marginally. The total is still a healthy 52, with Dallas' implied team total remaining generously in the high twenties; so there is some optimism surrounding their offense. The run game will get a slight boost in volume, but it will be offset by a decrease in scoring opportunities.
Captain Consideration
Cowboys Offense
Quarterback
Cooper Rush - Captain or Flex
Often times "bad" quarterbacks go under-owned in Showdown, even in games with a high total. That will not be the case on Sunday Night with Rush bolstering a lowly $6,000 price tag. Although his ownership may be high, he is still a great option to build around, and provides easy leverage. The Vikings side of the ball is fairly straight forward, and will consume most of the ownership. Builds predicated around Rush having the game of his life will be naturally unique. Tonight will be a great night to break out the Cowboys onslaughts while picking your poison from one of the Vikings' big three.
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott - Captain or Flex
After creating a minor meltdown in the fantasy community over the first couple games, Elliot settled into averaging 71.8% of the offensive snaps. Tony Pollard did not go away, so much as Kellen Moore figured out how to be creative with both backs on the field. Elliot ranks 5th in the NFL with 28 redzone opportunities. Tonight will be a a true "chicken or the egg" conundrum as viewers find out if Elliot creates those redzone opportunities or if he benefits predominantly from Prescott's offensive efficiency. Either way, if the Cowboys make it to the redzone, expect Elliot to be a focal point.
Tony Pollard - Flex
Pollard has been on the field for virtually every snap which Elliot has missed, in addition to occasionally sharing the field. Pollard's price has settled to a reasonable $5,400 after being overpriced much of the year. He is averaging over twelve opportunities a game as the sixth highest priced Cowboy. Pollard should go overlooked as he is sandwiched between two popular options in Dalton Schultz, and Cedrick Wilson.
Wide Receiver
Amari Cooper - Captain or Flex
Amari Cooper, and CeeDee Lamb share similar target shares thus far this season. Mostly due to a nagging foot injury, Cooper has seen less snaps. He is listed over Lamb in this article, and is in captain consideration mainly because he is $1,800 cheaper. With both players sharing similar ownership projections, and median point projections, just take the discount. Both Lamb, and Cooper have over 70 snaps in the slot, so there is no clear edge in terms of conduciveness to Rush's play-style.
CeeDee Lamb - Flex
On the flip side of the coin, Lamb's price-tag could lead to less ownership. With both of Dallas' primary receivers being strong plays, focus on builds including Rush at captain with 3-4 Dallas receiving options. Include both Cooper, and Lamb in most Cowboys onslaughts while cycling through Schultz, Pollard, and Wilson as the 4-5 flex options.
Other Targets -
Dalton Schultz - Flex
Blake Jarwin entered the season considered the starting tight-end in Dallas, but it is Dalton Schultz who has kept a stranglehold on the position. Schultz is averaging 6 targets per game, and can be expected to see an above average market share with Rush at quarterback. Although Jarwin factors in occasionally, and has caught two touchdowns on the year, Schultz is playing on nearly 80% of total snaps. At $6,600, Schultz is slightly overpriced relative to Pollard, and Wilson. At a similar price and projection, Zach Ertz carried a hefty 28% ownership on Thursday. If Schultz is projected ownership over 30%, Pollard and Wilson will be easy pivots.
Cedrick Wilson - Flex
Wilson has been the primary benefactor of Michael Gallup's inactive status. With Gallup returning to the lineup soon, Wilson's days in the starting lineup are numbered. Wilson has averaged roughly 50% of offensive snaps since Gallup's week 1 injury. He is seeing a fair amount of opportunity, but he's more of a leverage play over Tyler Conklin. Vikings onslaughts should be popular, which will boost the ownership of Conklin, and K.J. Osborn. Pollard, and Wilson will be direct leverage.
Vikings Offense
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins - Captain or Flex
Cousins will be an interesting case study for the season. Non-rushing quarterbacks have been far less owned at captain than their rushing counterparts. Cousins should be the third most rostered captain, but could potentially be seventh. The Vikings are top five in pace, and Cousins is top five in completion percentage. The team as a whole has been pleasantly efficient. Cousins won't be a flashy captain with so many great options in this game, but he has a case for being the best. The fact that he is the most expensive player on the slate should help get his ownership even lower.
Running Back
Dalvin Cook - Captain or Flex
Any running back will get a boost from being a home favorite, but it certainly helps to be Dalvin Cook. The Cowboys defense has been surprisingly dominant this season, especially against the run. Cook has the second highest median projection on the slate, and is $600 cheaper than Jefferson, but if looking for a lone Vikings run-back, either Jefferson or Thielen will have an easier go of it against the Dallas defense, with less ownership.
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson - Captain or Flex
Jefferson is top ten in the league in both receptions, and receiving yards. He has played a huge role in Cousin's efficiency. In builds that subscribe to fading Cook, Jefferson at captain makes sense. Since the Vikings offense will be highly owned, it wouldn't be the worst idea to try fading both Cook, and Thielen in lineups with Jefferson at captain. Jefferson at captain with Cousins, Osborn, and Conklin plus two Cowboys would be a productive build if stacking Minnesota.
Adam Thielen - Captain or Flex
At 31, Thielen is having yet another productive season while being overshadowed by the sophomore phenom Justin Jefferson. Similar to the conversation had about Cooper in the earlier segment, Thielen is $1,600 less than Jefferson. The only difference being that the swap from Jefferson to Thielen costs roughly 4 points in median projection. In this case it would be more productive to include Thielen at captain while still playing Jefferson in the flex. In lineups with four Vikings it's best to include two of Jefferson, Thielen, and Cook with Cousins, and a cheaper receiving option. Fading Jefferson also works with Thielen at captain, and Cook in the flex.
Other Targets
Tyler Conklin - Flex
The Vikings have to feel fortunate to have Conklin's production after losing Irv Smith for the season. Conklin is averaging five targets a game. He has the same median projection as Schultz at $2,200 less. Building around Rush, Lamb, Cooper, and Elliot, with a high priced Viking, and Conklin as the run back would give leverage over the highly owned Vikings stacks, and the over-owned Schultz.
K.J. Osborn - Flex
The Vikings have been searching for a third option at wide receiver for years. Through seven games it seems as though they may have found a solution. Osborn is playing well over 50% of the snaps with Dede Westbrook barely factoring in. He's receiving roughly five targets a game. Osborn is also in the same price range as Schultz with the same median projection. The same build suggestion for Conklin would work with K.J. Osborn, depending on which high-priced Cowboy is rostered at captain.
