Sunday Showdown Week 11

Photo: Jake Roth, USA Today Sports

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NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. A swing pass to the third-string fullback can heavily alter the leader boards. Showdown can be a fun way to enjoy a Prime Time game, or it can be an entire DFS portfolio. No matter the reason for playing, fortune favors the bold, and this article will never tell you a player is off-limits; even the third-string fullback. There are some cases where a great play will be so highly owned that their upside isn't worth losing the opportunity to be contrarian by fading them.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting with the Captain having a salary premium to correspond with the scoring premium. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and flex, so just play either a quarterback or running back in that spot. There are scenarios where a wide receiver can pay off, but it’s difficult with it being the 0.5 per reception.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head lineups use median projections but a little variation goes a long way towards not getting duplicated.

Game Strategy

After some speculation Ben Roethlisberger would miss this game, it seems as though both teams will be operating at full strength in week 11. Even with health on their side, neither team has put together a complete game on offense of late. The total sits at 47.5 with the Chargers favored by 5.5. Expect the total to hit the under, and build around a sloppy game. Defense will be over owned on this slate, especially after hitting at Captain recently, so it isn’t the best week to load up on the Steelers DST. Both starting running backs should be considered priorities even at high ownership. Although the Chargers will be higher owned, they are still the better option to stack around while finding other ways to keep ownership down.

Captain Consideration

1. Austin Ekeler
2. Najee Harris
3. Dionte Johnson
4. Justin Herbert
5. Keenan Allen
6. Mike Williams
7. Pat Freiermuth

Steelers Offense

Quarterback

Ben Roethlisberger – Flex

At $10,200 on DraftKings, Roethlisberger projects to be borderline unplayable. Nearly every core play is projected to out-produce him. This is a week where two Quarterbacks is not a priority, and no Quarterback is required given how much one could benefit from fading Justin Herbert at his massive ownership.

Running Back

Najee Harris – Captain or Flex

Najee Harris comes in at the highest overall projection, but just barely over Austin Ekeler, who is $1,000 cheaper. As previously mentioned, both running backs should be in most lineups. They both have the ability to produce as bell cows in positive game script, or as receiving weapons in negative game script. Playing Harris as the lone run-back to a Chargers onslaught is one way to get unique with both starting backs.

Receiver

Dionte Johnson - Captain or Flex

Dionte Johnson projects for a nearly 30% market share yet again. With the Steelers expected to be in negative game-script, Johnson should see a high target volume. He is projected just over 2 points less than Keenan Allen, but Johnson is the cheaper of the two. Johnson pairs well with Harris as the two Steelers in the flex with four Chargers, or as Captain with Roethlisberger in the flex spot with four Chargers.

Chase Claypool – Flex

Chase Claypool is over-priced relative to recent production, and projected market share in this game. At $7,000 he may be an excellent play due to low ownership. Ownership will gravitate towards Allen, and Johnson so much so that Williams, and Claypool should go overlooked. Claypool can benefit from the same negative game script as Johnson but with 15% less ownership.

Pat Freiermuth – Captain or Flex

Pat Freiermuth was the optimal Captain at very low ownership on the last Steelers showdown slate. The field won’t make that mistake again, but Freiermuth is cheap enough to make up for the added ownership. Eric Ebron will be active this week, and could limit Freiermuth’s upside, but it seems as though the starting job is Freiermuth’s to lose.

Other Targets -

James Washington – Flex

James Washington, and Ray-Ray McCloud both project similarly, and are excellent leverage plays off of Johnson or Harris. Because Washington is slightly more expensive, and is utilized more as a traditional receiver in this offense, he is the better play of the two with a good shot at being less owned.

Chargers Offense

Quarterback

Justin Herbert - Captain or Flex

Justin Herbert is the second most expensive player, and carries the second highest projection. His ownership is going to be through the roof, but while focusing on stacking the Chargers offense, he is impossible to completely fade. When rostering Herbert, be sure to get slightly more contrarian to counteract the massive ownership. Typically where the Quarterback’s ownership goes, the team’s ownership will follow. Normally the best play would be stacking the Steelers offense while running it back with Williams, and Ekeler without Herbert, but the Steelers don’t have enough fire power to make that work.

Running Back

Austin Ekeler – Captain or Flex

Austin Ekeler may be the best Herbert leverage. In lineups without Herbert, Ekeler should be strongly considered at Captain with the hope that he can punch in multiple touchdowns. Most lineups should have Ekeler, and Harris, and they will natually have Herbert. Getting unique with the remaining three roster spots will be tricky, and could require leaving an above-average amount of salary remaining.

Receiver

Keenan Allen - Captain or Flex

Keenan Allen has the best floor in this game. He is expected to see nearly 30% of the team’s targets. He will also be one of the top 5 most rostered players. If building around a sloppy, low scoring game, Allen can be faded in favor of Mike Williams, who profiles to do more with less targets.

Mike Williams - Captain or Flex

Mike Williams fits into just about every narrative for this game. He can benefit from increased targets if the Chargers find themselves down. He has shown the ability to be a possession receiver when Allen sees added attention. He is always a threat for a long touchdown. It has been quite some time since Williams was the dominant, but with such low ownership, and salary, he is the best play on this slate.

Jared Cook - Flex

Jared Cook falls into a price range at $4,000 where he should go overlooked. When stacking Los Angeles heavily, it will be important to fit in a low owned Charger or two. Cook would slot in well with Williams at Captain, Herbert, Ekeler, and two Steelers.

Other Targets

Josh Palmer - Flex

Josh Palmer, and Jaylen Guyton both played 31% of last week’s snaps. Palmer is $400 cheaper this week, and is likely the better player overall. Both Guyton, and Palmer are quality plays with so much emphasis on stacking the Chargers while keeping ownership down.