Terry McLaurin Is Riskier Than You Think

Photo: Jeff Hanisch, USA Today Sports

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“If you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all”. It’s an adage as old as time for most of us, hammered into our heads from an early age. While there is plenty nice to say about Terry McLaurin, it appears that fantasy analysts are choosing to focus only on the good. McLaurin is being drafted as a top-12 wide receiver and, to this point in his career, he has done very little to earn that rank.

This could be the season he finally breaks out. He has a new quarterback and the team finally added offensive counterparts that will demand defensive attention. The circumstances seem favorable but some bad comes with this good. We could easily end up with more of the same from McLaurin and you might get a WR25 with a WR12 price tag. The risk in drafting Terry McLaurin early in your draft is at least equal to the reward.

What We Have Seen

As we entered 2019, hopes were high for a rookie wide receiver in Washington: Kelvin Harmon. Despite being taken three rounds after McLaurin, Harmon was somehow favored based on his preseason. Predictably, the receiver with the higher draft capital outperformed the one with lesser, by a lot. It didn’t take long for Washington to realize that McLaurin was its best wideout and they funneled the rookie the ball. McLaurin finished with a team-leading 93 targets, 35 more than the next best player. He ended the year with 58 receptions, 919 yards, and seven touchdowns. It was a great way to start a career and good enough for a WR29 fantasy finish. He did this in just 14 games played and with poor play from Case Keenum and Dwayne Haskins at quarterback.

Heading into his second season, attention was now firmly on McLaurin. As the team’s established top wide receiver, expectations were high, and, for the most part, he delivered. Despite another year of tumultuous quarterback play, McLaurin bettered his target, reception, and yardage numbers. He also improved his fantasy points per game and finished as fantasy’s 20th best wide receiver. His touchdowns, however, dipped to just four. The combination of four subpar quarterbacks during the season did nothing to help his efforts.

There is very little negative to say about McLaurin’s first two years in the league. He was the best player on bad teams and he still found ways to shine. The concern is that it hasn’t exactly translated to fantasy success. His WR29 and WR20 finishes are far behind his current WR12 ADP. He has never averaged more than 15 fantasy points per game, his mediocre season-end finishes can’t be blamed on the three games he missed. Over his first 29 games, he was a weekly top-12 fantasy wide receiver just six times. He also missed the weekly top-36 in 18 games. If McLaurin is going to live up to his 2021 ADP, we are going to need to see a leap in production and consistency.

What We Might See

If there is an issue to be addressed about McLaurin’s first two seasons, other than consistency, it’s volume. In 2019, he was targeted on 19% of Washington’s pass attempts. Last year, that number jumped to 22%, and Washington threw the ball 9th most in the league. Two other things were constant in both of the seasons: 1. There was no viable wide receiver besides McLaurin. 2. Washington lost more games than they won. Washington has worked to improve both of these concerns and McLaurin’s volume is not guaranteed.

Washington signed Curtis Samuel for three years and $35 million. Samuel played for head coach Ron Rivera during his time in Carolina and played college football with McLaurin. He should be familiar with the system and able to make an immediate impact. The accepted thought is that Samuel will steal targets from tight end Logan Thomas and running back J.D. McKissic. They both topped 100 targets last season and have the most to lose. The WR2 for Washington last year, Cam Sims, was targeted just 49 times.

While a 22% target share for McLaurin is far from abnormal, there is at least a possibility that we see that number fall to account for some of the targets headed Samuel’s way. Washington also added a rookie wide receiver in the 3rd Round of this year’s draft, Dyami Brown from UNC. The addition of new weapons, and a possible expanded role for second-year running back Antonio Gibson, could push McLaurin back to the 20% target share range. While a 2% drop doesn’t sound like much, what if the passing volume drops too?

Washington looks poised to put together their first winning season since 2016. They won the division last year but that was with a laughable 7-9 record coming from a division dubbed the “NFC Least”. With improvements on defense and the addition of a better quarterback, this team should win more games and, likely, throw the ball less. Now, let’s talk about that new quarterback.

Ryan Fitzpatrick comes to town to play the “stop-gap savior”, a role he’s more than familiar with. He’s not the future of the franchise, but he is also far better than what they’ve had in the last two years. Fitzpatrick is a fan favorite and instantly created a new hype around McLaurin. Hence, the top-12 wide receiver average draft position. He’s also 38 years old and time is not on his side. He’s spent the last two seasons in Miami. In 2019, he was a big part of the DeVante Parker resurrection, but there was no viable second wide receiver in Miami. He funneled the ball to Parker. Last year, Fitzpatrick split time with Tua Tagovailoa, and no Miami wide receiver finished better than 40th in fantasy football.

Conclusion

Overall, it’s easy to point to Ryan Fitzpatrick and say “He is going to realize Terry McLaurin’s true potential”. When you’ve been stuck with Case Keenum, Dwayne Haskins, Alex Smith, Kyle Allen, and Taylor Heinicke, it’s easy to fall in love with Fitzpatrick. The reality is a bit more complicated. We want to believe in McLaurin’s ceiling and imagine a season with 140+ targets, tons of yards, and plenty of touchdowns. What if Washington only throws the ball 600 times and McLaurin falls back to a 20% market share? Then, we are looking at 120 targets and another middling top-25 fantasy season.

This is not to knock the projections you’ll see below. McLaurin’s ceiling is real and it is glorious. This is just to remind you that the downside does exist. McLaurin has shown the ability to put up stellar numbers time and again, but with no consistency. By the end of each of his first two seasons, he was nothing more than a quality 2nd wide receiver for fantasy. While the additions made by Washington will likely improve overall, they may not play out in such a positive manner for McLaurin.

The team could improve so much that they throw the ball less? Curtis Samuel might cut into McLaurin’s heavy target share. What if Dyami Brown proves himself early? Each of these things is within the realm of possibility for 2021. Taking on that baggage with your fantasy team’s top wide receiver feels like an unnecessary risk. McLaurin could and should be great, but if we continue to focus only on the positive, we might end up with a big disappointment by the end of the fantasy season.

2021 Projections