Thursday Showdown Week 16

Photo: Kyle Terada, USA Today Sports

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Disclaimer

These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options and in MME contests there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision making process is more interesting with the Captain having a salary premium to correspond with the scoring premium. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and flex, so just play either a quarterback or running back in that spot. There are scenarios where a wide receiver can pay off, but it’s difficult with it being the 0.5 per reception.

Game Strategy

This is going to be an interesting showdown slate as it matches up two teams that are very similar in that they are defensive oriented football teams that have a few star players that get a vast majority of the workload. There are some key injuries to manage through this slate as Eli Mitchell will miss this week with a knee injury, which means that Jeff Wilson will once again be the starter in San Francisco. Meanwhile, for Tennessee, they will get A.J. Brown back for this game which means the Titans will have both of their wide receivers in Brown and Julio Jones healthy for the first time since Week 8. This is likely a game where you probably don’t want to take the quarterbacks at the captain position as both Ryan Tannehill and Jimmy Garoppolo are expensive, but do lack the upside that you probably want in a captain this week.

Captain Consideration:

1. Jeff Wilson
2. George Kittle
3. A.J. Brown
4. Deebo Samuel
5. D’Onta Foreman

San Francisco 49ers

QUARTERBACK

Jimmy Garoppolo- Good Flex

There’s a lot to like about Jimmy Garoppolo this week, but the biggest problem for Garoppolo has been volume as he has thrown for 30 times or less in five of his last six games as this remains a run-heavy offense that limits Garoppolo’s upside. Where this game is interesting is the way to beat Tennessee is through the air, as they are allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, while allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. This could be a game that the 49ers could open it up a little bit more if they struggle running the ball.

RUNNING BACK/Wide Receiver/Tight End

Jeff Wilson- Great Captain/Flex

This is an interesting week as taking a player in Jeff Wilson who is facing a very strong defense is not normally advisable, but this is a situation where DraftKings simply messed up Wilson’s pricing thinking that Eli Mitchell was going to be available. At $7,200 as a captain and $5,200 as a flex, you’re getting a player who had 21 carries last week along with 2 receptions which the volume alone makes it worth a strong consideration this week. Wilson should be one of the highest rostered players, but the way to diversify against that is likely taking him as the captain this week and loading up on other positions with the salary savings.

Deebo Samuel- Low-End Captain Only

This is a bit of a tricky one, as the price is extremely high with him being the most expensive player on this slate. Since moving to primarily a running back, Samuel’s upside has taken a significant hit as he is averaging just 17 DraftKings points per game without topping 20 DraftKings points in that time. The bigger problem is how touchdown dependent Deebo has been as while he is averaging 17 DraftKings points per game, he has five touchdowns over that four-game period which when you’re only averaging 7 carries per game, is an unsustainable rate to be scoring touchdowns on 25% of your carries. Prior to his move to primarily a running back, Deebo had 25 DraftKings points or more in four of his last six games. Deebo still has the ability to breakout at any point as he showed earlier this season, but he’s very expensive for the lack of number of touches that he is seeing.

George Kittle- Great Captain/Flex

When looking at players with the most upside on this slate, George Kittle has to top the list as he has been dominant over his last three games topping 90 yards or more and having 37 DraftKings points or more in two of those three games. A big reason for Kittle’s recent surge has been the move of Deebo Samuel to more of a running back/hybrid role which has allowed Kittle to see 11 targets per game over the last three weeks. Tennessee has been strong against the run, so if they struggle to move the ball on the ground, could look to funnel the ball heavily to Kittle in this game.

Brandon Aiyuk- Flex

Brandon Aiyuk was extremely disappointing after not being able to build on a 10-target game two weeks ago as Aiyuk had just two targets in his last game. The problem for Aiyuk is that he is a secondary option in a low-volume offense that relies on big plays but lacks the big play speed to have a game changing performance. Aiyuk has not topped 100-yards this season and has topped 20 DraftKings points just once this season. While the matchup is a good one as they have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, there are simply better plays who are going to have the potential to have a massive game at the captain spot. He’s still a very good flex play as he has topped 50 yards in four of his last five games which is about where he will end up this week.

OTHER TARGETS

San Francisco Defense- Flex

The 49ers defense has the 10^th most sacks on the season, while the Titans have been sacked the 6^th most times in the NFL. This could open up an opportunity for the 49ers to have a big day led by Nick Bosa who has 15 sacks on the year. The Titans will also be without three of their starting offensive lineman which could create problems.

Tennessee Titans

QUARTERBACK

Ryan Tannehill- Flex

This is an interesting one as we don’t know which Titans offense we are going to get in this game. If healthy, there could be some upside in taking Ryan Tannehill and the passing offense of the Titans as we have not seen a game this season with Julio Jones and A.J. Brown that did not have Derrick Henry in the game which completely changes everything from a schematic perspective. The question is how healthy A.J. Brown will be as they just activated him from IR this afternoon. Stacking the Titans passing option could be one way to build a lineup as this game is expected to be a close one with the Titans being slight underdogs.

The problem with Tannehill is that he is a good flex play, but not a great captain play simply because he does not have the upside to likely finish as the optimal captain this week. Tannehill has only topped 20 DraftKings points twice this season and has not topped 25 and what’s even more amazing about that is that he has 7 rushing touchdowns on the season. The matchup is also a difficult one as San Francisco’s passing defense is allowing the 7^th-fewest passing yards per game at just 229 yards per contest.

RUNNING BACK/Wide Receiver/Tight End

D’Onta Foreman- Flex/Low-End Captain

After the Titans experimented with players such as Adrian Peterson, Dontrell Hilliard, and Jeremy McNichols, it has been D’Onta Foreman that has emerged amongst the group to become the lead running back. Foreman has been impressive as he is averaging 4.5 yards-per-carry but is averaging 4.9 yards-per-carry over his last three games when he took over as the lead runner. Foreman is coming off of a 22-carry performance against Pittsburgh and looked fantastic topping 100 yards for the first time this season.

Foreman is a power running back who gets better with volume which he should see this week but is not a great receiver which does limit his upside making him a better flex play than as a captain. The matchup this week is a difficult one as the 49ers are allowing just 79 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs which is 10^th best in the NFL this season. The Titans also have some offensive line issues as Kendall Lamm (Covid), Taylor Lewan (Back), and Rodger Safford (Covid) will all miss this game which should make running lanes difficult for Foreman in this game limiting his overall upside.

A.J Brown- Captain Only

Playing A.J. Brown this week is a play that is very risky in that we don’t know how healthy he is and whether the Titans are showing some desperation with the surging Indianapolis Colts as a win this week would essentially clinch the division. The one thing that Brown has going for him this week is that Julio Jones is in the lineup, which Brown has shown an inability to be the solo player this season as he struggled without Jones, but he has tremendous upside this week as evidenced by his three game stretch this season where he had 90 yards or more while topping 130 yards in two of those three games. There’s likely going to be no middle ground this week in that he is either going to have a massive game, or he is going to have 3-4 catches for 40 yards.

Julio Jones- Flex Only

It’s hard to trust Julio Jones at this point in the season as things have not gone accordingly to plan for Jones and the Titans. The biggest issue has been volume for Julio as he has not topped 6 targets in a game since Week 2 and has topped 50-yards just twice on the year. Health has also been a factor as while he goes into this game without an injury designation, that’s seemingly hard to believe after not being able to finish last week’s game and not practicing on Monday and Tuesday. At $6,800 the price should be lower as it appears you’re paying somewhat of a premium for the Julio Jones name

Dontrell Hilliard- Flex Only

Hilliard could be a great flex in a 49ers stack as if the 49ers get out to a big lead, Hilliard will likely be the player who sees the most playing time this week in Tennessee. Hilliard had 6 targets last week and is a great price at just $2,800.