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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
UPDATED SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 21st @ 8 AM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Tampa Bay | NY Giants | -11 | 49.5 | 30.25 | ««« | ««« | « |
Kansas City | Dallas | -2.5 | 56 | 29.25 | «« | «« | |
Buffalo | Indianapolis | -7 | 49.5 | 28.25 | «« | ««« | |
Cleveland | Detroit | -12.5 | 42.5 | 27.5 | « | «« | ««« |
Tennessee | Houston | -10 | 44.5 | 27.25 | « | «« | «« |
New England | Atlanta | -6.5 | 47 | 26.75 | « | « | |
Dallas | Kansas City | 2.5 | 56 | 26.75 | « | « | |
LA Chargers | Pittsburgh | -5.5 | 47.5 | 26.5 | « | « | |
Cincinnati | Las Vegas | -1.5 | 50.5 | 26 | « | « | |
San Francisco | Jacksonville | -6.5 | 45 | 25.75 | « | ||
Baltimore | Chicago | -5 | 44 | 24.5 | « | ||
Las Vegas | Cincinnati | 1.5 | 50.5 | 24.5 | |||
Green Bay | Minnesota | -1 | 47.5 | 24.25 | |||
Seattle | Arizona | -2.5 | 46 | 24.25 | |||
Miami | NY Jets | -3 | 44.5 | 23.75 | |||
Minnesota | Green Bay | 1 | 47.5 | 23.25 | |||
Carolina | Washington | -3.5 | 43 | 23.25 | « | ||
Philadelphia | New Orleans | -3 | 42.5 | 22.75 | « | ||
Arizona | Seattle | 2.5 | 46 | 21.75 | |||
Indianapolis | Buffalo | 7 | 49.5 | 21.25 | |||
Pittsburgh | LA Chargers | 5.5 | 47.5 | 21 | |||
NY Jets | Miami | 3 | 44.5 | 20.75 | |||
Atlanta | New England | 6.5 | 47 | 20.25 | |||
New Orleans | Philadelphia | 3 | 42.5 | 19.75 | |||
Washington | Carolina | 3.5 | 43 | 19.75 | |||
Chicago | Baltimore | 5 | 44 | 19.5 | |||
Jacksonville | San Francisco | 6.5 | 45 | 19.25 | |||
NY Giants | Tampa Bay | 11 | 49.5 | 19.25 | |||
Houston | Tennessee | 10 | 44.5 | 17.25 | |||
Detroit | Cleveland | 12.5 | 42.5 | 15 |
Bye Weeks: Denver, LA Rams
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Buccaneers)
- Running Back: Leonard Fournette (Buccaneers), Devin Singletary/Zack Moss (Bills)
- Receivers: Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/Rob Gronkowski (Buccaneers)
- Defense: Browns
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Josh Allen (Bills)
- Running Back: Darrel Williams (Chiefs), Adrian Peterson/DOnta Foreman (Titans)
- Receivers: Tyreek Hill/Demarcus Robinson/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Stefon Diggs/Emmanuel Sanders/Cole Beasley/Dawson Knox (Bills)
- Defense: Titans
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Baker Mayfield (Browns), Ryan Tannehill (Titans), Mac Jones (Patriots), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Justin Herbert (Chargers), Joe Burrow (Bengals)
- Running Back: DErnest Johnson (Browns), Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), Austin Ekeler (Chargers), James Conner (Cardinals), Joe Mixon (Bengals)
- Receivers: Jarvis Landry/Donovan Peoples-Jones/David Njoku (Browns), A.J. Brown/Marcus Johnson/Anthony Firkser (Titans), Jakobi Meyers/Nelson Agholor/Kendrick Bourne/Hunter Henry (Patriots), Amari Cooper/CeeDee Lamb/Dalton Schultz (Cowboys), Keenan Allen/Mike Williams/Jared Cook (Chargers), JaMarr Chase/Tyler Boyd/Tee Higgins (Bengals)
- Defense: Buccaneers, 49ers, Ravens, Panthers, Eagles