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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
UPDATED SUNDAY, DECEMBER 26th @ 9 AM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
LA Chargers | Houston | -11 | 45.5 | 28.25 | «« | ««« | « |
Dallas | Washington | -9.5 | 46.5 | 28 | «« | ««« | « |
Kansas City | Pittsburgh | -10.5 | 45.5 | 28 | «« | ««« | « |
Tampa Bay | Carolina | -10.5 | 43.5 | 27 | « | «« | «« |
Green Bay | Cleveland | -7.5 | 45.5 | 26.5 | « | «« | « |
LA Rams | Minnesota | -3.5 | 48.5 | 26 | « | « | |
Philadelphia | NY Giants | -10.5 | 40.5 | 25.5 | « | «« | ««« |
Arizona | Indianapolis | -1 | 49 | 25 | « | « | |
Atlanta | Detroit | -7 | 42.5 | 24.75 | « | ||
San Francisco | Tennessee | -3.5 | 45.5 | 24.5 | |||
Seattle | Chicago | -7 | 41.5 | 24.25 | « | ||
Cincinnati | Baltimore | -7 | 41.5 | 24.25 | |||
Indianapolis | Arizona | 1 | 49 | 24 | |||
Minnesota | LA Rams | 3.5 | 48.5 | 22.5 | |||
New England | Buffalo | -1 | 43.5 | 22.25 | |||
NY Jets | Jacksonville | -2 | 41 | 21.5 | « | ||
Buffalo | New England | 1 | 43.5 | 21.25 | |||
Tennessee | San Francisco | 3.5 | 45.5 | 21 | |||
Las Vegas | Denver | 0 | 41.5 | 20.75 | |||
Denver | Las Vegas | 0 | 41.5 | 20.75 | |||
Miami | New Orleans | -2.5 | 37.5 | 20 | |||
Jacksonville | NY Jets | 2 | 41 | 19.5 | |||
Cleveland | Green Bay | 7.5 | 45.5 | 19 | |||
Washington | Dallas | 9.5 | 46.5 | 18.5 | |||
Detroit | Atlanta | 7 | 42.5 | 17.75 | |||
Pittsburgh | Kansas City | 10.5 | 45.5 | 17.5 | |||
New Orleans | Miami | 2.5 | 37.5 | 17.5 | «« | ||
Baltimore | Cincinnati | 7 | 41.5 | 17.25 | |||
Chicago | Seattle | 7 | 41.5 | 17.25 | |||
Houston | LA Chargers | 11 | 45.5 | 17.25 | |||
Carolina | Tampa Bay | 10.5 | 43.5 | 16.5 | |||
NY Giants | Philadelphia | 10.5 | 40.5 | 15 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: None
- Running Back: Ezekiel Elliott/Tony Pollard (Cowboys)
- Receivers: None
- Defense: Eagles
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
- Running Back: Justin Jackson (Chargers), Ronald Jones II (Buccaneers), A.J. Dillon/Aaron Jones (Packers), Miles Sanders (Eagles), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs),
- Receivers: Amari Cooper/Michael Gallup/CeeDee Lamb/Dalton Schultz (Cowboys)
- Defense: Buccaneers
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Justin Herbert (Chargers), Tom Brady (Buccaneers), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Matthew Stafford (Rams), Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Jalen Hurts (Eagles), Kyler Murray (Cardinals)
- Running Back: Darrell Henderson/Sony Michel (Rams)
- Receivers: Keenan Allen/Mike Williams/Jared Cook (Chargers), Mike Evans/Tyler Johnson/Rob Gronkowski (Buccaneers), Davante Adams/Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Allen Lazard (Packers), Cooper Kupp/Odell Beckham/Tyler Higbee (Rams), Mecole Hardman/Byron Pringle/Demarcus Robinson (Chiefs), DeVonta Smith/Quez Watkins/Dallas Goedert (Eagles), A.J. Green/Christian Kirk/Rondale Moore (Cardinals)
- Defense: Chargers, Seahawks, Dolphins, Cowboys, Chiefs, Falcons, Packers, Saints