Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
Updated on Sunday, September 26th @ 8 AM
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Kansas City | LA Chargers | -7 | 54.5 | 30.75 | ««« | ««« | |
Arizona | Jacksonville | -7.5 | 51.5 | 29.5 | ««« | ««« | |
Baltimore | Detroit | -7.5 | 50.5 | 29 | ««« | ««« | |
Seattle | Minnesota | -2 | 55 | 28.5 | ««« | ««« | |
Tampa Bay | LA Rams | -1.5 | 55.5 | 28.5 | ««« | ««« | |
Dallas | Philadelphia | -3.5 | 51.5 | 27.5 | «« | «« | |
LA Rams | Tampa Bay | 1.5 | 55.5 | 27 | «« | «« | |
Minnesota | Seattle | 2 | 55.5 | 26.75 | «« | «« | |
San Francisco | Green Bay | -3 | 50 | 26.5 | «« | «« | |
Buffalo | Washington | -7 | 45.5 | 26.25 | «« | ««« | « |
Cleveland | Chicago | -7.5 | 44.5 | 26 | «« | ««« | « |
Tennessee | Indianapolis | -4.5 | 47 | 25.75 | «« | «« | |
Denver | NY Jets | -10 | 41.5 | 25.75 | « | «« | ««« |
Carolina | Houston | -8 | 43 | 25.5 | « | «« | « |
NY Giants | Atlanta | -2.5 | 47.5 | 25 | « | « | |
Philadelphia | Dallas | 3.5 | 51.5 | 24 | |||
Las Vegas | Miami | -3.5 | 44 | 23.75 | |||
LA Chargers | Kansas City | 7 | 54.5 | 23.75 | |||
Green Bay | San Francisco | 3 | 50 | 23.5 | |||
Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | -3 | 43 | 23 | |||
New England | New Orleans | -3 | 42.5 | 22.75 | |||
Atlanta | NY Giants | 2.5 | 47.5 | 22.5 | |||
Jacksonville | Arizona | 7.5 | 51.5 | 22 | |||
Detroit | Baltimore | 7.5 | 50.5 | 21.5 | |||
Indianapolis | Tennessee | 4.5 | 47 | 21.25 | |||
Miami | Las Vegas | 3.5 | 44 | 20.25 | |||
Cincinnati | Pittsburgh | 3 | 43 | 20 | |||
New Orleans | New England | 3 | 42.5 | 19.75 | |||
Washington | Buffalo | 7 | 45.5 | 19.25 | |||
Chicago | Cleveland | 7.5 | 44.5 | 18.5 | |||
Houston | Carolina | 8 | 43 | 17.5 | |||
NY Jets | Denver | 10 | 41.5 | 15.75 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Kyler Murray (Cardinals), Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
- Running Back: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs), James Conner/Chase Edmonds (Cardinals), TySon Williams (Ravens), Devin Singletary/Zack Moss (Bills), Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt (Browns)
- Receivers: Tyreek Hill/Mecole Hardman/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), DeAndre Hopkins/A.J. Green/Christian Kirk/Rondale Moore (Cardinals), Marquise Brown/Sammy Watkins/Mark Andrews (Ravens)
- Defense: Broncos
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Josh Allen (Bills), Tom Brady (Buccaneers), Matthew Stafford (Rams), Baker Mayfield (Browns), Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Ryan Tannehill (Titans)
- Running Back: Chris Carson (Seahawks), Ezekiel Elliott/Tony Pollard (Cowboys), Leonard Fournette/Ronald Jones II (Buccaneers), Sony Michel (Rams), Dalvin Cook (Vikings), Derrick Henry (Titans), Melvin Gordon/Javonte Williams (Broncos), Christian McCaffrey (Panthers)
- Receivers: Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf/Dee Eskridge/Gerald Everett (Seahawks), Amari Cooper/CeeDee Lamb/Dalton Schultz/Blake Jarwin (Cowboys), Stefon Diggs/Emmanuel Sanders/Cole Beasley (Bills), Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/Antonio Brown/Rob Gronkowski (Buccaneers), Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp/Tyler Higbee (Rams), Anthony Schwartz/Donovan Peoples-Jones/David Njoku (Browns), Justin Jefferson/Adam Thielen/K.J. Osborn (Vikings), A.J. Brown/Julio Jones/Anthony Firkser (Titans)
- Defense: None
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Teddy Bridgewater (Broncos), Sam Darnold (Panthers), Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers), Daniel Jones (Giants)
- Running Back: Elijah Mitchell (49ers), Saquon Barkley (Giants)
- Receivers: Courtland Sutton/Tim Patrick/Noah Fant (Broncos), D.J. Moore/Robby Anderson (Panthers), Deebo Samuel/Brandon Aiyuk/George Kittle (49ers), Sterling Shepard/Kenny Golladay/Darius Slayton (Giants)
- Defense: Panthers, Bills, Browns