Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
UPDATED SUNDAY, OCTOBER 10th @ 6 AM
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Kansas City | Buffalo | -3 | 56.5 | 29.75 | ««« | ««« | |
Minnesota | Detroit | -10 | 49.5 | 29.75 | «« | ««« | |
Dallas | NY Giants | -7 | 52 | 29.5 | ««« | ««« | |
Tampa Bay | Miami | -10 | 48 | 29 | ««« | ««« | « |
LA Rams | Seattle | -2.5 | 53.5 | 28 | «« | «« | |
Arizona | San Francisco | -5.5 | 48.5 | 27 | «« | «« | |
Green Bay | Cincinnati | -3 | 50.5 | 26.75 | « | « | |
Buffalo | Kansas City | 3 | 56.5 | 26.75 | «« | «« | |
Baltimore | Indianapolis | -7 | 46.5 | 26.75 | «« | ««« | |
Tennessee | Jacksonville | -4.5 | 48.5 | 26.5 | « | « | |
Seattle | LA Rams | 2.5 | 53.5 | 25.5 | « | « | |
Las Vegas | Chicago | -5.5 | 45 | 25.25 | « | « | |
LA Chargers | Cleveland | -2.5 | 47 | 24.75 | |||
Carolina | Philadelphia | -3 | 46 | 24.5 | |||
Atlanta | NY Jets | -3 | 45 | 24 | |||
Cincinnati | Green Bay | 3 | 50.5 | 23.75 | |||
New England | Houston | -8 | 39 | 23.5 | ««« | ||
New Orleans | Washington | -2.5 | 43.5 | 23 | |||
NY Giants | Dallas | 7 | 52 | 22.5 | |||
Cleveland | LA Chargers | 2.5 | 47 | 22.25 | |||
Jacksonville | Tennessee | 4.5 | 48.5 | 22 | |||
San Francisco | Arizona | 5.5 | 48.5 | 21.5 | |||
Philadelphia | Carolina | 3 | 46 | 21.5 | |||
NY Jets | Atlanta | 3 | 45 | 21 | |||
Washington | New Orleans | 2.5 | 43.5 | 20.5 | |||
Denver | Pittsburgh | -1.5 | 39.5 | 20.5 | |||
Chicago | Las Vegas | 5.5 | 45 | 19.75 | |||
Detroit | Minnesota | 10 | 49.5 | 19.75 | |||
Indianapolis | Baltimore | 7 | 46.5 | 19.75 | |||
Pittsburgh | Denver | 1.5 | 39.5 | 19 | « | ||
Miami | Tampa Bay | 10 | 48 | 19 | |||
Houston | New England | 8 | 39 | 15.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Tom Brady (Buccaneers)
- Running Back: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs), Ezekiel Elliott/Tony Pollard (Cowboys), Leonard Fournette (Buccaneers), Dalvin Cook (Vikings), TySon Williams/Latavius Murray (Ravens)
- Receivers: Tyreek Hill/Mecole Hardman/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Amari Cooper/CeeDee Lamb/Dalton Schultz (Cowboys), Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/Antonio Brown/Rob Gronkowski (Buccaneers)
- Defense: Buccaneers
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Matthew Stafford (Rams), Kyler Murray (Cardinals), Josh Allen (Bills), Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
- Running Back: Darrell Henderson (Rams, James Conner (Cardinals), Devin Singletary/Zack Moss (Bills)
- Receivers: Adam Thielen/Justin Jefferson/K.J. Osborn (Vikings), Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp/Tyler Higbee (Rams), DeAndre Hopkins/A.J. Green/Christian Kirk/Rondale Moore (Cardinals), Stefon Diggs/Emmanuel Sanders/Cole Beasley/Dawson Knox (Bills), Marquise Brown/Sammy Watkins/Mark Andrews (Ravens)
- Defense: None
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Ryan Tannehill (Titans), Derek Carr (Raiders)
- Running Back: Aaron Jones (Packers), Chris Carson (Seahawks), Derrick Henry (Titans), Josh Jacobs (Raiders)
- Receivers: Davante Adams/Allen Lazard/Robert Tonyan Jr (Packers), Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf/Will Dissly (Seahawks), A.J. Brown/Julio Jones/Anthony Firkser (Titans), Henry Ruggs/Bryan Edwards/Darren Waller (Raiders)
- Defense: Buccaneers, Broncos, Ravens, Vikings, Raiders