The Fantasy Fallout of the Davante Adams trade.

Photo: Gary A. Vasquez, USA Today Sports

It's the opening week of NFL free agency, and it is safe to say that the teams have not left us wanting for action. While there have been a few big free-agent signings, the most significant moves have come via the trade. The Seahawks shipped Russell Wilson to Denver, and Amari Cooper now calls Cleveland home, but one trade outdid them all.

After Aaron Rodgers renegotiated his contract in Green Bay, it seemed that all was well, and the Packers would look to make another run at the NFC Championship. However, it was immediately evident that Davante Adams was not on board with this plan, as he announced that he would not be playing the 2022 season on the Franchise Tag contract. Most assumed that Green Bay would find a way to get it done, and they were right, just in all the worst possible ways. The Packers traded Adams to the Raiders for a 1st and 2nd round pick in 2022. This is a big move for both franchises and will immediately affect the fantasy value of some major players for 2022.

What It Means for Green Bay

When the No. 6 quarterback in fantasy loses the No. 2 wide receiver in fantasy, it will have a massive impact. Since 2016, Rodgers to Adams has been one of the most lethal combinations in the NFL. Thankfully, we have a few examples of Rodgers playing without Adams since 2019. Rodgers has played every game in that span; Adams has missed seven. Here are the results of those games:

The first thing people will look at is the fantasy points. In these games without Davante Adams, Rodgers averaged over 29 fantasy points. To put that in perspective, the best quarterback in fantasy last year, Josh Allen, averaged 27.9 fantasy points in 2021. While game by game, we saw both his best and worst performances of the entire 2019 season. So, while there may be more inconsistency than we are used to from Aaron Rodgers, his days as a top-5 quarterback might not be over just yet. Again, this is a small sample size, but the overarching theme is that Aaron Rodgers is likely to be just fine for fantasy purposes.

The Packers will need someone to step up at wideout. They are bringing Allen Lazard back and have made it known they would like Marquez Valdes-Scantling to return. It will not be surprising if they add another wide receiver or two via free agency or the draft. It is unlikely any of these players reach the heights of Adams, but they should fall into a fantasy top-30 value category weekly. The real benefactors of this trade might be Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.

It is clear that Rodgers will be dangerous without Adams, and defenses will not be able to fully commit to slowing down the run and the best two weapons the Packers have left. Jones is an excellent receiver out of the backfield and occasionally line up in the slot when needed. He's averaged 65 targets over the last three seasons, and there is an excellent chance that rises in 2022, and his PPR fantasy value will increase with it. With Jones taking more passing work, that frees up more touches in the running game for Dillon. He handled 52% of the carries in 2021, and that is another number we can expect to improve. More touches, especially for a bruising back like Dillon, will lead to more fantasy points and a lot of happy fantasy managers.

What It Means for Las Vegas

The most common thing you will hear about the Las Vegas Raiders is one of my least favorite cliches in all of football: There are too many mouths to feed. We heard this last year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and we'll hear again and again in the future until we all realize it's not true. The Raiders now have one of the best wide receivers in the game in Adams, one of the best slot wide receivers in Hunter Renfrow, and one of the best receiving tight ends in Darren Waller. They are all going to be great for fantasy football.

If you only look at new Raiders' head coach Josh McDaniels' recent history, you may not like the odds for anyone other than slot wide receiver Renfrow, but using that as your only data would be a mistake. This team is not built like the Patriots teams of the last two years. While Derek Carr is not Tom Brady, he is better than Cam Newton and Mac Jones. In fact, all three of these pass-catchers are better than their New England counterparts of the last two seasons. However, we have seen McDaniels run an offense with multiple star receivers, and the results were great for fantasy.

In 2007, Randy Moss caught 98 balls for 1493 yards and 23 touchdowns, all while Wes Welker caught 112 balls of his own. While this was pre-Rob Gronkowski, McDaniels has shown us he knows how to get the most out of an elite tight end. Yes, that was long ago, but this may be the best firepower McDaniels has had at his disposal since that time.

When you look over the Raiders, there are 140 targets vacated from last season, more than enough to keep Adams happy while still giving Renfrow and Waller the 128 and 93 they each saw last year. That also assumes they don't throw more in 2022. The Raiders threw the ball 7th most in the league last year but were a full 100 attempts behind the first-place Buccaneers. If they decide to open the offense up, we could see all three of these players meet and exceed the totals they put up in 2021.

The biggest benefactor on this side of the trade is by far Derek Carr. Carr hasn't had a true alpha-WR since Amari Cooper was traded in 2018 and hasn't thrown more than 30 touchdowns since 2015. His last top-10 finish was back in 2016. With the addition of Adams, defenses will have a much harder time keying on any one player. Do not be shocked if Carr puts up the best numbers of his career in year one of this new offense. It's hard to know what Carr's draft value will be this early in the year, but he seems like the perfect late-round quarterback that will help someone win their fantasy league in 2022, a la Matthew Stafford last season.

Overall, this trade helps far more players than it hurts for fantasy football. The AFC West alone will provide an entire year's worth of highlight-reel footage. As fantasy managers, we should all be salivating at what is to come for these teams in 2022.