With the season finally upon us, preparation is necessary for the fast movement in values that take place at the beginning of the season. This is a good time to think about how you might profit in trades if a player gets off to a hot start to the season.
Maximizing Your Pivots
When you are looking to sell high in a dynasty trade, aim for a more durable asset in return. You can learn this lesson from the preseason in advance of the regular season when quick starts to the season can cause trade costs to increase. Dameon Pierce is a great lens for evaluating whether a more durable asset was returned.
Pierce was a fourth-round pick in the NFL Draft to an open depth chart. In the month after the NFL Draft, Pierce had a median draft position of 2.06 at RB5 in Superflex rookie drafts.
Pierce has been a source of consistent buzz since then. This escalated when Pierce broke out in Preseason Week 1 before he was held out of the final two games with the starters. His cost escalated further when Marlon Mack was cut from the team.
In May Superflex startup drafts, Pierce was selected at 11.04 as RB33. In August drafts, Pierce has a 9.11 median draft position at RB29, with Pierce’s stock escalating to 8.05 and RB25 in the final two weeks of August.
Overall, the price jump is not huge, but the reaction has been big in dynasty marketplaces.
When making a pivot, there are two ways to profit: trading for picks or trading for an elite asset.
Trade for Picks
Recent trades returning a future first-round rookie pick for Pierce include:
- Dameon Pierce for 2023 1st
- Dameon Pierce for Laviska Shenault and 2023 1st
- Dameon Pierce for Kevin Harris and 2023 1st
These deals are great opportunities to profit. A future first-round pick in Superflex leagues produces a starter season about 60% of the time. On the flip side, the average fourth-round running back hits about 19% of the time. If you trade a fourth-round rookie for a future first-round rookie pick every time you get the opportunity, you will be way ahead over the long term. Shenault and Harris are throw-ins for these deals.
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Package for Elite Assets
When a player increases in value, do not aim low. You should look for an upgrade to a more durable dynasty asset. This can be done by pivoting from the player to the more durable asset or adding to the player and going up a higher level.
- Dameon Pierce, 2023 1st, and 2024 1st for Deshaun Watson and Jerry Jeudy
Deshaun Watson may not be for every dynasty GM, but this is an elite upgrade. Watson is an elite asset at the quarterback position. His legal and suspension issue has clarity, with Watson returning to the field in Week 13.
On the field, Watson has been a top-six finisher his entire career. Overall, he has the production profile of a top-four pick in Superflex drafts. Watson has been demanding more than two future first-round rookie picks in trades since his suspension was finalized. Using Pierce in this manner is an upgrade, with the added kick-in of Jerry Jeudy.
Bad Pivots
Bad pivots occur when you either lose your nerve or fail to acquire a more durable dynasty asset. Recent trades that were bad pivots from Pierce include:
- Dameon Pierce and Kenneth Walker for 2023 1st and 2023 2nd
Pierce is hovering around the cost of a first-round rookie pick, and the GM that selected Walker likely did so with a top-five rookie pick. This represents a capitulation on Walker, a likely top-five pick by the dynasty GM trading him away.
- Dameon Pierce, Tyler Conklin, and a 2023 2nd for Miles Sanders and David Njoku
Over the past month, Sanders and Pierce are within a round of each other in startup drafts, pointing in opposite directions. Pierce is heading toward consolidating a role in the Houston offense. Meanwhile, Sanders is in the final season of his rookie contract with Philadelphia and has added competition with Trey Sermon along with holdovers Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell. Njoku is a fair return for Conklin and a second-round rookie pick in a 2PPR for tight end league but could be done independently of the Pierce trade.
Overall, the process of this deal is tough to figure out. Remember to look for more durable dynasty assets when trying to trade high.
Killing Your League BY 1000 Papercuts
You can capitalize on changing valuations by trading weak profiles for stronger ones at reduced prices. For example, when you get the chance to trade a rookie who was a late day-three pick for a rookie drafted on day two of the NFL draft, you should strongly lean towards the day-two pick. When you can do so and get additional future picks, you almost always must do it. This is a winning strategy historically, and if you do it every time you get the chance, you will be ahead in the long term.
- Tyrion Davis-Price and a 2023 2nd for Isiah Pacheco
Tyrion Davis-Price was a third-round pick. The average running back drafted in the third round of the NFL Draft has a hit rate of 43% in the first five years of their career.
Isiah Pacheco was a seventh-round pick. The average running back drafted in the seventh round of the NFL Draft has a hit rate of 5% in the first five years of their career.
When choosing between the two, you must be almost unreasonably confident to take the seventh-round pick over the third-round pick. When you get added future capital on top of it, this is nearly an unlosable trade for the person trading away Pacheco.
- Sam Howell for a 2023 2nd
As a day-three draft pick, the odds Sam Howell succeeds as a starter are worse than 10%. By trading a future second to acquire Howell, you are only tying up future flexibility by speculating. If you need a quarterback, you can make a trade for a cheap starter who has the chance to have a multiple-year tenure as a starter, like Baker Mayfield or Jameis Winston.
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