The Dynasty Trading Post: Week 7

Photo: Kyle Terada, USA Today Sports

Welcome to the dynasty trading post, where optimizing strategy, roster construction, format, and player value oscillations are examined weekly in example and completed dynasty trades.

*All trades are Superflex unless stated otherwise*

QUARTERBACKS

Theme of the Week: Kyler Murray

Trusting Kyler Murray and the Cardinals is becoming more difficult by the week. At his best, Murray is scrambling and play-making in a backyard fashion. Sustaining such a play style has proven difficult for Murray durability-wise and from opponent to opponent. My favorite Greg Cosell quote over the years of wisdom shared is "at some point, a quarterback must consistently win through the timing and rhythm of the offense." Murray is at a critical span of time in his career to pass the above threshold test: consistently win through the timing and rhythm of an NFL passing game.

On the macro level, Murray has a 0.80 TD-INT Rate Ratio, one of the key metrics I track for the quarterback position. The NFL average is around 1.15 and dropping below 1.00 for a quarterback's career (or extended amount of time) points to a job security risk. Murray is clearly below the marker in 2022 and has now dropped to exactly 1.00 for his career. He is having a down year but did not have much wiggle room built up previously. This for a quarterback who recently received a massive contract. on a team searching for anchor players on offense and defense. Once a quarterback gets the big contract, their supporting cast will take a hit, especially without quality drafting to collect rookie contract starters for multiple years.

The Cardinals have missed on Round 2 picks like Andy Isabella and Rondale Moore so far. Trey McBride has also caught a mere three passes (24 yards) as a Round 2 rookie of the 2022 class. They traded for Marquise Brown, now injured, and again with Robbie Anderson. A.J. Green looks done. We will see about DeAndre Hopkins now back from a suspension. In short, this is a precarious situation where Murray, like all mega-contract quarterbacks, needs to elevate his surrounding, not vice versa. Murray is valued like a core asset in dynasty, another tenuous situation to explore as a sell player.

• Key trade idea: Murray, Rondale Moore, 23 2nd, 23 2nd for Patrick Mahomes, 23 3rd

Even if adding more ancillary pieces to the Murray side this is a cheap upgrade to a no-brainer quarterback stud profile in Mahomes. Sometimes dynasty is not hard.

• Key trade idea: Murray, CeeDee Lamb for Justin Herbert, Brandon Aiyuk

While the drop from Lamb to Aiyuk is potentially significant at wide receiver, the gap from Murray to Herbert in long-term stability is even larger at quarterback. When assessing dynasty trades, players, and valuations for team building, ask the key question of "what profiles and positions are most difficult to acquire, fix, and get right?" The Herbert quarterback profile is difficult to get right.

• Key trade idea: Murray, DK Metcalf for Josh Allen, Allen Robinson

This is a more extreme example than above but with the same premise. Allen is a cyborg player and unicorn profile. Downgrading from Metcalf to a falling knife like Robinson is a substantial drop, but acquiring Allen solves many long-term potential problems on a dynasty roster.

RUNNING BACKS