A month into the season is enough sample size to draw conclusions about NFL offenses and player utilization. However, the fantasy season is barreling toward the business section of the calendar, where at least 1-2 teams in a league are looking toward 2027 already. Here are the key NFL and fantasy observations at the quarterback position:
One of the key pieces of analysis for the quarterback position is comparing how a quarterback is playing beyond the fantasy stat lines and their overt counting stats. A central method I use is being critical of their touchdowns and interceptions when compared to their big-time throws vs. turnover-worthy plays. This easily leads to the research of overrated and underrated performers early in the season.
Overrated Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins has led the new-look Raiders to a 3-1 record and went toe-to-toe with the Chiefs in their lone defeat this season. Cousins is QB6 in PPG and has multiple touchdown passes in every game, despite a weak wide receiver corps and missing Brock Bowers for a cross-section of the early weeks. With the Raiders playing well, there is no timetable for Fernando Mendoza displacing Cousins as the starter. However, this 11-4 TD-INT ratio is distorted. First off, his four interceptions are tied for fourth-most in the NFL, behind only Drake Maye, Justin Herbert, and Matthew Stafford - all of whom have had hand-wringing early moments (or mostly) early in the season. The other is that Cousins has a 1.00 big-time throw-to-turnover-worthy play (BTT) ratio on the season, which is below the NFL average. So Cousins has largely played average-ish, yet has flourished on the high band of his fantasy outcomes due to 11 touchdowns. His pressure to sack rate (P2S) is at an all-time low (a good thing) for his career and barely half his career mark. In short, Cousins is having a career year at 38 years old without quality wide receivers or offensive line play. Cousins is a classic example of a sell-high or rest-of-season regression candidate after a hot opening month. Also, the next month with NE-BUF-LAR-NYJ is one of the more difficult schedules for quarterbacks by Footballguys aSOS.
Trevor Lawrence is the biggest dynasty name on this list. His 8-2 TD-INT ratio is covering up the more descriptive summary of his play through the opening month, which is a 3-6 BTT Ratio. That 0.50 BTT Ratio gets you benched if you are losing games and/or do not have a franchise quarterback contract. Lawrence has both, so it is not like his job is in jeopardy. However, Lawrence has generally been overrated during his dynasty rise last season and this season. Liam Coen and situation counts for quarterbacks, creating more value, easier throws, and a supportive ecosystem where a quarterback does not need to play beyond slightly above-average to actually be a strong winning quarterback with good counting stats. Lawrence is in one of those situations through more than a season now. The important thing to remember is Lawrence is not elevating the situation at all. His BTT ratio between 2025 and 2026 is 33-30, and a 1.10 ratio is right at the NFL average. The year before, 2024, he was 13-13. For his career, Lawrence has a 1.17 BTT ratio. This is essentially who he is and has been, plus or minus a few hundredths.
The other quarterback I would feature here is Deshaun Watson. The Browns are 3-1, and Deshaun Watson, who was assumed to be benched by Week 3 after his dud in Week 1, is a reclamation header through the opening month. However, the secondary analysis of Watson points to a different picture than his 3-1 record and 6-2 TD-INT ratio. His 4-7 BTT ratio is easily in the "lose your job" zone historically. The three-game win streak includes Carolina's bad defense and Tampa Bay, who look rudderless after two more weeks of data following the Browns game. Even during the three wins, Watson has a 3-4 BTT ratio - again, enough to get benched. Watson's average depth of target is the lowest of his career, and he continues to hold the ball far too long, as has been the case throughout his career. In short, he holds the ball, takes too many sacks, and ultimately checks the ball down even when extending plays, plus makes more bad throws than elevating ones. Consider the Browns fortunate they are 3-1 and Watson is a strong sell candidate with a much tougher schedule coming up as well (NYJ-BAL-TEN-PIT) when looking at aSOS for quarterbacks.
Underrated Quarterbacks
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