Targets and goal line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries is nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches 'empty calorie' opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for the high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
- Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
- HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score
- GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
- TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets
THE GOOD
Buccaneers
The elevation for Leonard Fournette continued in Week 5. After a sluggish (and surprising) start for Tampa's HLO weekly finishes (25th, 18th, 20th) this season, The Buccaneers have been the top HLO team in the entire NFL in each of the past two weeks. Their 25 weighted HLO score in Week 5 dwarfs their weekly average of 13 through the opening month, including their No.1 overall finish in Week 4. Fournette is a PPR force with this level of HLO, and Rachaad White is one of the elite backup running backs should Fournette miss time.
Titans
After a horrible start to the season (28th and 31st in the opening two weeks), Tennessee has finished in the Top 10 each of the past two weeks, including a top-five HLO finish in Week 5. Derrick Henry has 50 PPR points over the span, including a lid-lifting seven targets and 63 receiving yards. Henry is dominant enough that he can finish as a strong RB1 even without much receiving work, but his recent elevation in the passing game and Tennessee's promising HLO make Henry's elite upside far easier to achieve.
Jets
The Jets have been one of the great HLO stories of 2022. Breece Hall continues his breakout trajectory, and a major contributing reason is the offense's optimization of the running back position. The Jets have finished in the Top 10 every week this season, the only team left with such a blend of floor and ceiling HLO outcomes, even Week 5 being a down week with 16 weighted HLO produced quality games for Hall and Michael Carter. Hall will be an easy top-10 fantasy finish with this combination of talent and HLO.
Panthers
Like Leonard Fournette and the Buccaneers, Christian McCaffrey and Carolina were off to an uncharacteristic start to the season. Through three weeks, they were mirror images without a top-half weekly finish. Carolina finished No.9 in Week 4 as McCaffrey dominated in the passing game. The trend continued in Week 5 as Carolina finished as the No.2 overall team. They more than doubled (21) their weekly average HLO in the opening month (10), and their rise in the overall season rankings continues.
THE BAD
Packers
For having one of the best running back tandems in the NFL, Green Bay certainly has struggled to feature them for HLO touches. For the fourth week in a row, the Packers finished in the bottom half of the NFL. Aaron Jones is a disappointing 14th in PPR PPG, and A.J. Dillon is outside of RB40 with fourth straight games of single-digit fantasy scores. The Packers have been particularly poor in goal-line chances for the duo. As a result, Dillon has not scored since Week 1 and Jones since Week 2. Both are 'get well' candidates against the Jets in Week 6, but the HLO needs a quality uptick.
Cardinals
Arizona had their worst HLO finish of the season in Week 5. After averaging more than 16 weighted HLO per week, they managed a paltry eight against the Eagles. Their last two games have been the only results beyond the Top 10 in HLO, and they exit Week 5 with game-ending injuries to James Conner and Darrel Williams. Track this backfield closely this week, as Eno Benjamin could combine a workhorse role by attrition with a glorious matchup against Seattle as an elite streaming option.
THE UGLY
Cowboys
Dallas had a single target and zero goal-line carries for running backs, an especially anemic showing considering Cooper Rush was in 'close to the vest' mode on offense against the Rams. Dallas has been in the Bottom 10 of HLO every week except Week 2. Dak Prescott's looming return offers reason for optimism, but this has been a dreadful season start. It's no surprise that neither Ezekiel Elliott nor Tony Pollard is in the top-36 running backs in PPR points per game.
Seahawks
Rashaad Penny is now out of the season with his broken leg in Week 5. The poor HLO trend continued for Seattle as they were one of the worst teams in the NFL for the third time in five weeks and the lowest team in HLO score over the past two games. Ken Walker broke a long touchdown, which is likely the way he will need to reach a fantasy ceiling as Seattle has yet to see a goal-line carry for the position.
Ravens
After the Week 4 blip of being the No.2 HLO team to offer J.K. Dobbins promise of 'things will be different this time', Baltimore sagged back to their typical bottom rung of the HLO hierarchy in Week 5. Outside of Week 4, the Ravens have been in the Bottom 5 every other game this season. Gus Edwards is also slated to return soon to present a stronger RB2 presence than at any point this season.
LAST WEEK'S BIGGEST QUESTIONS: ANSWERED?
Is there value in Atlanta with Cordarrelle Patterson?
Week 5 was the first complete game with Patterson, now on the short-term IR, for the Falcons backfield. Atlanta's horrible HLO trend over the past month continued in Week 5 with yet another bottom-10 finish. Despite a weekly weighted average of six HLO entering the week, they managed to halve their typical poor output with just three. Fantasy upside will be nearly impossible for Tyler Allgeier, Caleb Huntley, or Avery Williams without a huge market share for one of them or a strong reversal of HLO course before Patterson returns.
Was Week 4 merely a one-week spike for Baltimore?
In short, yes. J.K. Dobbins was ignored for HLO, and the Ravens finished in the Bottom 5 of the metric yet again in Week 5. Their Week 4 No.2 overall finish looks like one of the biggest outliers in the entire NFL. Dobbins' fantasy finishes have mirrored their HLO by week with a strong 22 game in Week 5 and two invisible performances in his other two active games this season.
THIS WEEK'S BIGGEST QUESTIONS
Where is the ceiling for Alvin Kamara and the Saints?
The Saints' highest weekly HLO finish this year is a ho-hum 14th, and Week 5's nine weighted HLO was in line with their weekly average for the opening month. Alvin Kamara bunked this week's HLO by posting 24 PPR points by dominating the backfield with 29 touches, catching all six of his targets, and averaging more than 15 yards per reception. Kamara will need more stat lines like this to get back to his strong RB1 fantasy perch for the season in aggregate.
Does Washington's HLO matter?
Brian Robinson made his debut and traded off drives with Antonio Gibson. J.D. McKissic mixed into the rotation and created a murky three-headed committee in Washington. The Commanders sit second in overall HLO on the season but slicing the pie into now three pieces is a recipe for fantasy disappointment. Gibson has eroded in fantasy points by the week, and McKissic has been a decent floor but low-ceiling proposition. Robinson will siphon a few points from both and likely see some goal-line carries. McKissic missing time would benefit Gibson in the passing game, and Gibson missing time (or Robinson) would consolidate much of the ground game to the other. Outside of consolidating the three heads to two in this backfield, their strong HLO is largely being wasted on the fantasy side.
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