IDP Matchups, Living the Stream: Week 16

Photo: Brian Fluharty, USA Today Sports

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There's an unfortunate truth about this column. One its author is well aware of.

No one wants to have to use it. Not really. And certainly not this time of year.

What fantasy managers want is to roster Raiders edge-rusher Maxx Crosby up front. Foyesade Oluokun of the Jaguars at linebacker. Julian Love of the New York Giants in the secondary. They want to slot stud players in the starting lineup each and every week and just kick back and reap the rewards.

No one wants to live the stream.

But what we want and what we get are often two different. Players fail to meet expectations. Players slump. Players get hurt. Some players do all three. At this point in the season, any of the three can be all it takes to end a season.

Sometimes, you have to live the stream. And while it may not be ideal, it can work—like a charm.

Last week, in this very column, I recommended Jaguars safety Rayshawn Jenkins as a solid matchup play in a plus matchup. Jenkins didn't finish the week as a top-20 defensive back. Or top-10. Thanks to 18 total tackles and two interceptions (including a pick-six)m Jenkins was the No. 1 defensive back of Week 15. In fact, Jenkins had twice as many fantasy points (in the scoring I have long used as a personal benchmark) as any other defensive back in the league.

I'm not about to tell you that all my recommendations smash to that extent—if they did, I'd do less writing and more gambling. I can't even tell you definitively that all the players listed in this week's Living the Stream will hit at all.

But I can say with considerable confidence that matchup plays work. That you can win that way.

And all these players have enough going for them to be on the matchup radar in Week 16.

EDGE Leonard Floyd, LA Rams (vs. Denver)

There are multiple reasons why the Rams tied the 1999 Denver Broncos for the soonest a defending Super Bowl champion has been eliminated from postseason contention. The lack of a pass rush from the outside has been one—without Von Miller opposite him, Leonard Floyd's consistency and effectiveness have dipped in 2022.

However, when Floyd has had a big game this season, it has been a big game. After failing to log a sack over the first six games of the season, Floyd erupted for nine total tackles and two sacks in a Week 8 matchup with the rival 49ers. That marked the first of three two-sack outbursts from Floyd over the last eight weeks—including five stops and two sacks in Monday's loss to the Green Bay Packers.

Feast or famine IDP options aren't especially easy to trust at any point in the season, but it's that much harder to do at a juncture in the season where a disappearing act can mean no more fantasy football for eight-plus months. But this week's home date with the Broncos sets up as a feast—after surrendering seven sacks a week ago, the Broncos are tied for the league lead with the Rams in that category at 51.

EDGE Randy Gregory, Denver (at LA Rams)

The Broncos gave Gregory $70 million over five years in the offseason to help anchor the team's pass rush. As has been the case with so many of Denver's offseason moves in 2022, it backfired—after two sacks in four games, Gregory landed on injured reserve with a knee injury. Now, Gregory is back, and per Aric DiLalla of the team's website, veteran safety Justin Simmons expects his return to make a big difference.

"I like to call those types of guys game-wreckers," Simmons said. "Run game, pass game, he just goes in there and messes everything up. On paper, you have this run gap. But R.G. and those guys are in there and they blow the gaps up. You just are playing football at that point, and that's a lot of what he does and obviously is super talented at getting to the quarterback and helping us out in the back end with coverages and things like that. He's a game-wrecker."

Gregory's first game in two months was a quiet one—he logged one assist in 23 snaps against the Arizona Cardinals. But that snap count should continue to grow as Gregory works back into game shape, and this week the Broncos travel to face a Rams team that has allowed an NFC-high 51 sacks this season.

EDGE Yannick Ngakoue, Indianapolis (vs. LA Chargers)

Ngakoue isn’t generally a player who is mentioned among the best pass-rushers in the NFL, but the 27-year-old accomplished something this year that only six players total and one active player (Aaron Donald) have—log at least eight sacks in each of his first seven seasons. Per JJ Stankevitz of the Colts website, Ngakoue said the key to that consistency lies in a lack of complacency.

"I think a lot of it has to do with just having faith in God and I'm a big believer of Him. Also, just being able to not be complacent and not always thinking that you have it," Ngakoue said. "There are always things that you can work on each and every offseason. I just try not to fall off – the greats don't fall off, they always keep working. You know what I mean? They never let themselves get out of shape. Also just being able to be with great teammates – these guys are playing great football on the defensive side of the ball that I'm a part of and it's allowing me to be able to make plays."

Ngakoue ranks outside the top-25 defensive linemen in fantasy points, in large part because he's never been a big tackle producer—his season high in that regard is 41 back in 2019. But Ngakoue can absolutely take advantage of plus pass-rush matchups, and this week's tilt with a Chargers team that has allowed 34 sacks and the third-most fantasy points to defensive ends qualifies.