IDP Matchups, Living the Stream: Week 16

There's an unfortunate truth about this column. One its author is well aware of.

No one wants to have to use it. Not really. And certainly not this time of year.

What fantasy managers want is to roster Raiders edge-rusher Maxx Crosby up front. Foyesade Oluokun of the Jaguars at linebacker. Julian Love of the New York Giants in the secondary. They want to slot stud players in the starting lineup each and every week and just kick back and reap the rewards.

No one wants to live the stream.

But what we want and what we get are often two different. Players fail to meet expectations. Players slump. Players get hurt. Some players do all three. At this point in the season, any of the three can be all it takes to end a season.

Sometimes, you have to live the stream. And while it may not be ideal, it can work—like a charm.

Last week, in this very column, I recommended Jaguars safety Rayshawn Jenkins as a solid matchup play in a plus matchup. Jenkins didn't finish the week as a top-20 defensive back. Or top-10. Thanks to 18 total tackles and two interceptions (including a pick-six)m Jenkins was the No. 1 defensive back of Week 15. In fact, Jenkins had twice as many fantasy points (in the scoring I have long used as a personal benchmark) as any other defensive back in the league.

I'm not about to tell you that all my recommendations smash to that extent—if they did, I'd do less writing and more gambling. I can't even tell you definitively that all the players listed in this week's Living the Stream will hit at all.

But I can say with considerable confidence that matchup plays work. That you can win that way.

And all these players have enough going for them to be on the matchup radar in Week 16.

EDGE Leonard Floyd, LA Rams (vs. Denver)

There are multiple reasons why the Rams tied the 1999 Denver Broncos for the soonest a defending Super Bowl champion has been eliminated from postseason contention. The lack of a pass rush from the outside has been one—without Von Miller opposite him, Leonard Floyd's consistency and effectiveness have dipped in 2022.

However, when Floyd has had a big game this season, it has been a big game. After failing to log a sack over the first six games of the season, Floyd erupted for nine total tackles and two sacks in a Week 8 matchup with the rival 49ers. That marked the first of three two-sack outbursts from Floyd over the last eight weeks—including five stops and two sacks in Monday's loss to the Green Bay Packers.

Feast or famine IDP options aren't especially easy to trust at any point in the season, but it's that much harder to do at a juncture in the season where a disappearing act can mean no more fantasy football for eight-plus months. But this week's home date with the Broncos sets up as a feast—after surrendering seven sacks a week ago, the Broncos are tied for the league lead with the Rams in that category at 51.

EDGE Randy Gregory, Denver (at LA Rams)

The Broncos gave Gregory $70 million over five years in the offseason to help anchor the team's pass rush. As has been the case with so many of Denver's offseason moves in 2022, it backfired—after two sacks in four games, Gregory landed on injured reserve with a knee injury. Now, Gregory is back, and per Aric DiLalla of the team's website, veteran safety Justin Simmons expects his return to make a big difference.

"I like to call those types of guys game-wreckers," Simmons said. "Run game, pass game, he just goes in there and messes everything up. On paper, you have this run gap. But R.G. and those guys are in there and they blow the gaps up. You just are playing football at that point, and that's a lot of what he does and obviously is super talented at getting to the quarterback and helping us out in the back end with coverages and things like that. He's a game-wrecker."

Gregory's first game in two months was a quiet one—he logged one assist in 23 snaps against the Arizona Cardinals. But that snap count should continue to grow as Gregory works back into game shape, and this week the Broncos travel to face a Rams team that has allowed an NFC-high 51 sacks this season.

EDGE Yannick Ngakoue, Indianapolis (vs. LA Chargers)

Ngakoue isn’t generally a player who is mentioned among the best pass-rushers in the NFL, but the 27-year-old accomplished something this year that only six players total and one active player (Aaron Donald) have—log at least eight sacks in each of his first seven seasons. Per JJ Stankevitz of the Colts website, Ngakoue said the key to that consistency lies in a lack of complacency.

"I think a lot of it has to do with just having faith in God and I'm a big believer of Him. Also, just being able to not be complacent and not always thinking that you have it," Ngakoue said. "There are always things that you can work on each and every offseason. I just try not to fall off – the greats don't fall off, they always keep working. You know what I mean? They never let themselves get out of shape. Also just being able to be with great teammates – these guys are playing great football on the defensive side of the ball that I'm a part of and it's allowing me to be able to make plays."

Ngakoue ranks outside the top-25 defensive linemen in fantasy points, in large part because he's never been a big tackle producer—his season high in that regard is 41 back in 2019. But Ngakoue can absolutely take advantage of plus pass-rush matchups, and this week's tilt with a Chargers team that has allowed 34 sacks and the third-most fantasy points to defensive ends qualifies.

LB JaWhaun Bentley, New England (vs. Cincinnati)

The New England Patriots have no shortage of talent on defense, but the Pats have also long been a team where the whole was more than the sum of its parts. However, even the most cohesive of units need leaders, and all the way back before the season started, head coach Bill Belichick expressed confidence that JaWhaun Bentley could be that kind of leader for the team's linebackers.

“He’s a very good communicator. I know Jerod (Mayo) and Steve (Belichick) have spent a lot of time with him and encouraged that," Belichick said, via Sean McGuire of NESN. Of course, Jerod was probably the best communicator on defense we’ve ever had here, so I’m sure that Bent’s learned a lot from him, but at the same time, he has a lot of those natural qualities himself. He’s done a great job for us. I’m really glad we have him. He and Devin (McCourty) do a great job of leading the defense: Bentley in the front seven, McCourty in the back end. And they work together well.”

Bentley has answered that call from Darth Hoodie—his 97 total tackles lead the team by a wide margin, and Bentley's snap share has steadily grown as the season wore on. Bentley has now played at least 80 percent of the snaps in five straight games, and he's riding a two-game stretch with double-digit stops ahead of a top-five IDP matchup for linebackers with the Bengals.

LB Troy Andersen, Atlanta (at Baltimore)

Talent was never really a question with Anderson. Neither was range. Or athleticism. Or productivity in college. But given that production came at tiny Montana State, there was a question of how the converted quarterback would fare in making the jump to the NFL. As D. Orlando Ledbetter wrote for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, linebackers coach Frank Bush has been impressed by how quickly the second-round rookie acclimated to the pros.

“He gets what we are saying," Bush said. "He’s played a lot of different positions. He has a natural feel for football and all of the things that go along with it. “When his opportunities have come, he gets out there, and he’s been doing a good job for us. Now, it’s just about having his feet in the technique and getting reps at practice, in the game and gaining confidence.”

Apparently, the Atlanta coaching staff has gained confidence in Andersen as he gained it on the playing field—last week against the Saints, he played a much larger role than Mykal Walker, and the Week 16 depth chart made it official that Andersen has supplanted Walker as a starter. That could mean big things this week against a Ravens team that has become more and more reliant on the run as the season has progressed.

LB Joe Thomas, Chicago (vs. Buffalo)

Christmas came early for some IDP managers in 2022. When Roquan Smith was traded to the Ravens, undrafted free agent rookie Jack Sanborn was thrust into the starting lineup—and he immediately exploded. Over a five-week stretch from Week 9 to Week 13, Sanborn averaged over 10 tackles a game and was the highest-scoring linebacker in fantasy football.

Then, after the Bears returned from their Week 14 bye, the Grinch skulked into Whoville and stole Christmas. Sanborn was carted off the field during last Sunday's loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, and it was revealed on Tuesday that his injured ankle was severe enough to land him on season-ending injured reserve.

You're a foul one, Mr. Grinch.

If veteran Nicholas Morrow is available in your IDP League, he stands to benefit the most from Sanborn's injury—he was already playing full-time and saw a sizable bump in production Sunday relative to his numbers with Sanborn on the field. But Journeyman veteran Joe Thomas also stepped into a three-down role with Sanborn sidelined, logging six total tackles and a sack. For some fantasy managers with a hole at linebacker, he may well be the best waiver option available this late in the season.

S Reed Blankenship, Philadelphia (at Dallas)

Blankenship has enjoyed quite the ride as an undrafted rookie. First, he made the 53-man roster out of training camp. Then, the former Middle Tennessee State standout shined on special teams. Then, after starter Chauncey Gardner-Johnson went down, Blankenship entered the starting lineup for the NFC's best team. As Dave Spadaro wrote for the team's website, defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon said Blankenship has impressed every step of the way.

"He's very smart, he's instinctive, and has a unique skill set. When I say unique skill set, he's not a post safety or a box safety. He can do it all. He tackles and he processes fast, and he just needs some reps and time on task," Gannon said. "There are certain things, as a rookie, he hasn't seen like some of the older vets have seen. I really like, though, that he's a guy that when he makes a mistake, he's not a repeat offender. From that, you know he's going to continue to keep progressing."

Blankenship was a spectator last week against the Bears, but with KVon Wallace nursing a hip injury and Blankenship back at practice at full capacity, it appears the youngster is trending toward returning for one more start before Gardner-Johnson's potential return—a start that comes against a Cowboys team leading the league in fantasy points allowed to safeties.

S Quandre Diggs, Seattle (at Kansas City)

Much has been made this year of Seattle's struggles against the run—and with good reason. Lost sometimes is that the Seahawks have quietly assembled a quality secondary. That secondary is young on the outside, but with Jamal Adams sidelined, the veteran leader of the unit is two-time Pro Bowler Quandre Diggs, who head coach Pete Carroll said is a cornerstone of not just the back end but the defense overall.

"He's been a really steady force," Carroll said via John Boyle of the team's website. "He's been obvious. His hitting, his alley play in the running game, it's really as good as it gets, and he's a real ball hawk… He's just a really complete football player, and he's a very important leader, the guy back there calling the shots and directing traffic and all that, so he's doing everything."

In more weeks than not, Diggs is a better NFL player than IDP option—his reliance on big plays for production tends to make him a high-variance fantasy play. Diggs isn't going to match last year's career-high 94 tackles, but he has shown the ability on multiple occasions to make hay when the matchup is right. Say against arguably the most dangerous passing attack in the NFL.

CB Damarri Mathis, Denver (at LA Rams)

There may not be a harder position to make the leap from college to the NFL than cornerback. Even high-end, first-round picks often find themselves struggling early. Damarri Mathis of the Broncos didn't have that first-round pedigree, but he has had first-year struggles. As Jon Heath wrote for Broncos Wire, though, head coach Nathaniel Hackett said he has been encouraged by the growth Mathis has shown as the season progressed.

“I think he’s done a really good job," Hackett said. "Any corner — they have to battle. They have to battle. They get matched, they get man coverage and all those things. The more that he gets confidence, the better he’s going to get. You definitely see that grow over time.”

Mathis has rather been the embodiment of the "rookie corner rule" in 2022. He has been good enough to avoid getting the hook but not so good that opposing quarterbacks have been at all reluctant about targeting him. This week Mathis and the Broncos face a Rams team that has been surprisingly generous to opposing cornerbacks given their offensive issues—fourth in fantasy points allowed to the position.