Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Famer Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have over 50 years of experience as fantasy football analysts and have won three FSWA Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.
The final weekend of preseason action is underway across the NFL. Cutdown day looms next week. And in less than two weeks, the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys (An NFC East game in primetime. Go figure.) will play the first game of 2025 that counts.
And just like that, it will be on like Donkey Kong.
With just two big fantasy draft weekends left until go-time, approximately all the drafts ever are set to take place. Fantasy managers are looking for values to select. Busts to avoid. Sleepers to target late. Any edge they can get.
Fortunately, at least one member of this team is sharp.
It's Harris. Davenport's duller than an overcooked egg noodle.
Drawn and Quartered
With just two big fantasy draft weekends left, your readers (all seven of them) don't need pithy. They need production. So, let's get after it.
Overreacting to exhibition games is as annual an occurrence as kids returning to school and leaves changing colors. But the events of the past month also can't be wholly discounted as "Meh. It's just the preseason."
Is there a quarterback you are significantly higher on than when the summer began? And which signal-caller is now giving you colder feet than Julia Roberts in a '90s rom-com?
Harris: So, if we're here to overreact to things, sign me up for the Caleb Williams hype train. And no, not just because he led the Bears offense through Buffalo's second-team defense like a hot knife through butter this past weekend. There's more to it than that, starting with Ben Johnson, who's proven to be a capable and creative playcaller. Johnson made improving Williams' pocket awareness a priority this offseason. The goal is dialing back on the league-high 68 sacks the first pick overall took as a rookie. The Bears also improved the pass protection around Williams with the offseason additions of guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson and center Drew Dalman.
Beyond that? We've already seen Williams produce at a high level. He struggled under offensive coordinator Shane Waldron early last year, but once Waldron was fired after Week 10, we got an immediate bump with Thomas Brown calling plays from Weeks 11 to 13. Williams was QB4 over that span, averaging 22.4 points per game. In Weeks 12 and 13 alone, he was QB3, putting up 25.5 per game. I'm betting on Johnson to get more consistent high-end production from his second-year signal caller.
As enthusiastic as I am about Williams (and others), I can't get excited about Tua Tagovailoa. The good news is, he's QB22, so I'm not alone in that. As Footballguy Jeff Haseley put it, "[Tagovailoa] has two strikes against him -- lack of rushing prowess and a history of concussion concerns." Yes, he has a high-end supporting cast in De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle, but I'd rather invest in those pieces at cost than the triggerman.
Davenport: I don't know how much of it has to do with his 17 preseason passing attempts (although he admittedly looked sharp in that limited action with a passer rating north of 115), but I'm coming around to the idea of drafting Trevor Lawrence of the Jaguars as my QB2. His offensive line admittedly isn't great. And Jacksonville's backfield is muddied. But one man's muddied is another's deep. Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter have the potential to be an elite duo at wide receiver, and new Jags head coach Liam Coen just coaxed a QB3 fantasy finish from Baker Mayfield a year ago in Tampa.
Are we sure Mayfield is that much better than Lawrence? Are we really sure?
This one pains me (largely because I was high on him early in draft season), but training camp and the preseason have given me legitimate pause about Justin Fields of the New York Jets. No one (sober) expected Fields to throw for 4,500 yards this season--much of his fantasy value comes from his rushing upside. But at some point, it's going to become necessary to complete a forward pass or two, and Gang Green's passing game has been positively gangrenous this summer.
Running a Fever
Speaking of overreacting, this year's rookie class at running back has caused a pandemic of fantasy fever.
We'll keep this simple—and useful. Of all the rookie ball-carriers fantasy managers are going gaga over, who is the best value in drafts? Who is a disappointment waiting to happen?
Harris: It's impossible to ignore Bill, as Jacory Croskey-Merritt likes to be called. The seventh-round pick is currently RB59 available in the 16th round of your draft. That's going to change in short order, given the team's sudden decision to move on from Brian Robinson Jr. Watching our guy Bill, it's easy to see the appeal. As ESPN.com's Steve Muench explained, the rookie presses the line of scrimmage, makes late cuts, and sifts through traffic between the tackles. He sticks his foot in the ground and accelerates through the line of scrimmage when he gets a seam, too.
So I'm buying while the price is right, while noting that Ben Standig, a long-time Commanders beat writer who was first to suggest Robinson might not be long for the roster, reminded me this week that Croskey-Merritt will absolutely be sharing with Austin Ekeler and possibly with Chris Rodriguez Jr., who might get the goal-line work.
I'm out on Chargers first-round pick Omarion Hampton -- at cost. That is an important distinction.
Let me acknowledge that Hampton has shown at the college level that he can handle a workhorse role. He finished his last season at North Carolina with 2,033 yards from scrimmage, third-most in the nation. In 12 games in his final season, Hampton averaged over 175 total yards per contest.
But Hampton sharing carries -- whether it's with Najee Harris or another back while Harris gets back up to full speed after suffering an eye injury in July, isn't ideal considering the newcomer is being drafted as RB15 at the Round 3-4 turn. Remember, the Chargers still plan to lean on multiple backs to help a rushing attack that averaged just 110.7 yards per game in 2024, and there are a number of veteran backs I believe have more certain workloads and better paths to success.
Davenport: I 100 percent agree with Harris that Croskey-Merritt may well be the best bet among rookie running backs--at the right price. The problem is that "Bill Fever" is running rampant in fantasy leagues now--to the point that the questions in Washington's backfield and increased asking price make him more mid-round risk than late-round gem.
That's a theme with most of the rookie running backs this season. New England's TreVeyon Henderson is an electrifying talent, but after his preseason exploits, he's being drafted at his ceiling. There's a reason Ohio State brought in Quinshon Judkins last year, and for that same reason, Rhamondre Stevenson isn't going to go away. Henderson likely isn't a 300-touch player--and that means he'll have to be ridiculously efficient to return value.
Frankly, at this point, my favorite rookie targets may be the Cleveland backs--and Judkins isn't signed yet and could be suspended. But he's also a prototypical three-down back I've seen drafted after Croskey-Merritt. And while Dylan Sampson is undersized, he also just led the SEC in rushing and broke a 95-year-old record at Tennessee for rushing scores in a season.
As much as Hampton at Pick No. 33 is begging to be disappointed (watch--Harris is going to murder more seasons than Jason Voorhees), taking Denver's RJ Harvey the following round isn't much better. Many just seem unable to process the fact that J.K. Dobbins (who is available three-plus rounds later) is the RB1 for the Broncos. He's more proven. A better pass-blocker. And a better receiver out of the backfield. We've seen Sean Payton-coached teams produce multiple fantasy-relevant backs, but at cost, give me Dobbins all day, every day.