Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites. It offers a fun and unique product. There are no salary caps and no need for lineup builders. You do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) plays in the same game, you can use correlation to your advantage. For example, if you assume that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback also is more likely to throw for more yards. This weekly article will count down the five best props of the week.
5: Thursday Night Special
- The Jaguars have come from out of nowhere to put themselves right into the middle of the playoff picture. Current odds have Jacksonville with a 54% chance of winning the AFC South. That number would leap to 67% with a win over the Jets. The resurgence has been led by Trevor Lawrence and the passing game.
- Since Week 9, Lawrence has a 111.2 QB rating. He has averaged 280 yards and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game over the recent six-game stretch.
“Over the past month, Trevor Lawrence has been exactly what was promised. Lawrence is the NFL’s next star quarterback.”@BenjaminSolak breaks down the ascension of the Jaguars franchise quarterback:https://t.co/T89FLMabpl— The Ringer (@ringer) December 21, 2022
- Christian Kirk is the best way to get exposure to the Jaguars passing attack this week. The Jets' stellar young cornerback duo of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed play outside and rarely travel into the slot. Kirk has played 76.5% of his snaps from the slot, while Zay Jones and Marvin Jones primarily play outside.
- Over the last six weeks, Kirk has averaged 6.3 catches for 78 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game (17.1 PPG). He has scored at least 15 fantasy points in five of his last eight games.
- While Zonovan Knight has provided a spark to the Jets offense, he could face tough sledding in Week 16. The Jaguars are allowing just 89.2 rushing yards per game to opposing backs.
- Knight struggled last week in his first game with Zach Wilson, rushing for just 23 yards on 13 carries. He played 48% of the snaps in the game and has played more than half the snaps just once this season.
4: AFC South Trends
- Two weeks ago, we wrote about Henry’s dominance in AFC South games, noting that he had rushed for 100-plus yards in 10 of his last 11 divisional games. He ran for 121 yards, easily topping his 89.5 yards rushing prop. Henry has now rushed for 100-plus in 11 of 12 division games.
- His recent dominance of the Texans has been even more incredible. He has run for 210-plus yards and at least two touchdowns in four straight games against Houston.
Derrick Henry’s last 4 games against the Texans:— Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 22, 2022
32 rushes, 211 yards, 3 TD, 39.1 FP
22 rushes, 212 yards, 2 TD, 40.4 FP
34 rushes, 250 yards, 2 TD, 35 FP
32 rushes, 219 yards, 2 TD, 35.8 FP pic.twitter.com/q1Z65rYdFx
- Henry has at least 35 fantasy points in each of his last four matchups against the Texans.
- Houston has given up a league-high 1,978 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns to opposing running backs this season.
- On the other side of the ball, Davis Mills also has a plum matchup. The Titans have given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, allowing a league-high 4,219 passing yards. The Titans defense has also given up 25 passing touchdowns, tied for second-most.
- Mills did cede some snaps to backup Jeff Driskel again last week but played 83% of the snaps overall and nearly led an upset of the Chiefs.
- He should finally have Brandin Cooks back in the lineup this week, which should provide a boost.
- Mills has had at least 11 fantasy points in four of five games.
3: Banking on Young WRs
- Brandon Aiyuk has not received the productivity many expected with Deebo Samuel out of the lineup, and that has led to his receiving prop this week coming in at a very favorable number.
- He has had 57-plus receiving yards in 8 of 14 games this season.
- Aiyuk ran a route on every Brock Purdy dropback last week and played 97% of the snaps overall.
- Washington has given up just 1,114 rushing yards to opposing running backs this season (fifth-fewest), so the 49ers should have to open things up more than they have in recent weeks with the passing game.
- On the other side of the ball, the 49ers run defense has been even more dominant. San Francisco has allowed a league-low 804 rushing yards to opposing backs. The Commanders are going to have to throw the ball to win.
- Jahan Dotson has been productive when healthy. He played more than 75% of the snaps the first three weeks before a Week 4 injury knocked him out for more than a month. He was eased back in and has only approached his early-season snap share over the last two weeks.
- In his two most recent games, he has played 79% of the snaps in each and averaged 4.5 catches for 79.5 yards and 1.0 touchdowns per game.
- In his five fully healthy games in which he played 75%-plus of the snaps, Dotson has averaged 6.8 targets per game and had a floor of five targets.
2: Lions stay hot
Amon-Ra St. Brown MORE than 74.5 receiving yards
DOnta Foreman LESS than 62.5 rushing yards
- Over his last six games, Amon-Ra St. Brown has averaged 8.3 catches and 95.8 receiving yards per game.
- He has topped 75 receiving yards in five of his last six.
Slice of how the Lions use Amon-Ra St. Brown. Three consecutive snaps from near/in the red zone vs. the Jets.— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) December 21, 2022
Including proof they'll actually hand it to him in those 21p looks. pic.twitter.com/eAWPZr5CWf
- The Panthers have allowed the 11th-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers.
- Carolina gave up 10 catches for 98 yards to Diontae Johnson last week.
- DOnta Foreman has been a complete non-factor for the Panthers in losses. In Carolina’s last three losses, he has averaged 18.7 rushing yards per game.
- Last week against Pittsburgh, Foreman managed just nine yards on 10 carries and played only 14 snaps.
- If you like the Lions to stay hot and beat the Panthers, then taking the under on Foreman is a great play, and it correlates with St. Brown having a solid game.
- Since Week 9, the Lions have given up just 66 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.
1: Christmas Day Play
- Jaylen Waddle has 85-plus receiving yards in 8 of 14 games. In a few of the games, he was held below 85. He was obviously limited by injury and carried a questionable tag going in.
- Waddle has been a big play machine this season and only needs to get behind the defense once to hit for more than 70 yards.
- Allen Lazard has been solid this season but has not emerged as the go-to target that many expected. On the season, he has 46 catches for 627 yards.
- He is coming off of his worst game of the season, with just one catch for seven yards against the Rams despite playing 67 snaps.
- Over his last three games, Lazard has averaged 2.7 catches for 32.7 yards on 3.7 targets per game.