The New Reality No.190: Dynasty Trade Deadline

The dynasty trade deadline begins in some leagues as early as Week 12 kickoff, about a week away. The key window is upon dynasty teams to explore team direction-specific trades, whether in or out for the 2022 season. Reference New Reality 183, which breaks down how to assess your team strength beyond a win-low record. Also, hedge on the side of contending. With four weeks to go in the regular season for most dynasty leagues, even being out of the sixth spot (typical playoff cut-off) by two games offers a legitimate chance to make a run. Be realistic but optimistic.

Also, something Jordan McNamara and I have discussed frequently on the Footballguys Dynasty Show is the big difference between not contending this season and still maintaining a focus on contending the following season. Making a trade tilted for the future beyond the current season is different than gutting a team and creating a steeper uphill climb to compete the following year.

Here are suggested target players, at each position, by team direction with their likely cost:

CONTENDING TEAMS

The biggest pieces of advice for contending team trades are:

Make a dynasty trade. Carefully select player profiles that are durable beyond 2022, ideally aiding your title journey for multiple seasons. Generally, older productive players are the ideal subset as their price is a fraction of their younger peers who are similarly productive due to age erosion in the trade market.

Older running backs are typically some of the more treacherous acquisitions if paying a premium, which is why the suggested roster-building methodology includes strongly using the waiver wire, plus drafting them in rookie drafts, preventing the need to trade for the position.

If trading away a future pick (as a contender), include 2023 picks instead of 2024. The phrase which applies here is "control the controllable". The known is you are a contending this year - the biggest factor to where those 2023 picks reside within the round. 2024 picks are unknown, especially relative to the data points known for 2023 picks. Being 10 weeks into this season is a significant advantage to projecting pick ranges compared to a null set of data yet known from the 2023 season.

• Geno Smith: Smith offers the best combination of production (QB9 in PPG through Week 10) and a low-cost addition in 1QB or Superflex formats. Smith's cost in Superflex centers around a 2nd round pick. For start-1QB formats, it is closer to a 3rd.
• Austin Ekeler: The overall RB1 and 3.1 PPG ahead of Christian McCaffrey through Week 10, Ekeler resides on the top HLO team in the NFL to insulate his floor and ceiling. At 27 years old, the age discount is already in effect with Ekeler despite the elite production. Ekeler also has a reasonable contract left to stick with the team in 2023. Ekeler ranges from a 1st+ to a 1st equivalent alone in cost.
• Mike Evans: Death, taxes, and top-24 seasons from Mike Evans. The Tampa Bay receiver is on track for yet another in 2022. While it might take a future 1st in some cases, start with offers a 2nd+ for Evans as a contender or even get a return of Evans+ for a Dameon Pierce type asset.
• Travis Kelce: If looking to be one of the 'haves' at tight end, the list essentially ends with Kelce and Mark Andrews, the only options averaging more than 13 PPG this season. Kelce is more affordable than Andrews and, if for some reason Kelce is not on a strong contender this year, is a clear target. Example deals from this week include Kelce, Keenan Allen for Amon-Ra St. Brown and Kelce for AJ Dillon, Michael Gallup, 23 2nd.

NON-CONTENDING TEAMS

Injured players, 2023 free agents, and quality profiles in a current production slump are common profiles to target once falling out of the 2022 playoff race. The goal is to contend in 2023 by resculpting a dynasty roster, not stripping a team from projected 2023 production as well.

It can be easy to focus solely on future rookie picks, especially Round 1 selections, as a non-contending team in the dynasty trade market. However, there can be significant variance from league to league on the accessibility of these selections. Know and explore your specific league market. In some, Round 1 picks are held with a vice grip and rarely traded for anything but a gold standard premium. Those same leagues might freely give up 2nds and beyond. If focusing the building your roster of assets through the best values, be open to picks, but also player profiles if picks are held tightly.

• Matthew Stafford: This season has gone straight sideways for the Rams and Stafford between a porous offensive line, minimal run game, Allen Robinson not panning out, and now Cooper Kupp (and Stafford) being injured. Stafford is QB32 on the season, but buy the dip and the profile for a discount (QB20+ easily in the market). Stafford's price centers in the Round 2 pick range.
• Ezekiel Elliott: Typically blasphemous to suggest a 27-year-old running back as a buy for a non-contender, but remember the key is to find profile value and contend in 2023. Elliott has fallen through the floor in valuation but has five top-12 seasons under his belt and is in the trio, including Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey, for most productive, active running backs. Elliott's value centers around a 2nd round pick.
• Treylon Burks: With injuries and yet to post a massive breakout game, Burks is accessible in the market, especially if offering a producer to a contender with Burks on their roster. Interesting deals in the market this week to buy Burks include Courtland Sutton, 3rd for Burks, 1st and Cole Kmet, 3rd, 3rd for Burks.
• George Kittle: An inarguable elite talent at the position, Kittle is dealing with a TE7 PPG season-to-date and an offense filled to the brim with talent but not passing attempts to fuel Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey on a weekly basis. Kittle has four top-five seasons to his record and is one of the few tight ends with TE1 overall upside in a given season. In start-1TE formats, recent deals for Kittle as examples include Kittle for two 23 2nds, Kittle, 23 3rd for Alec Pierce, 23 2nd, and Kittle for Evan Engram, 23 2nd, 23 3rd.

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