Prop Talk Week 13

Photo: Bob Donnan, USA Today Sports

Article Announcement

We are shifting some times around on when articles released, and I’m happy to say that this article will be going back to a Saturday release as we’ve moved something off of my plate in order to accommodate.

Week 13 Plays

Mike White Over 257.5 Passing Yards

This one may be one of my favorite props of the season as Mike White and the Jets are being greatly disrespected this week. The reason his prop is as low as it is has more to do with the perception of the Jets that was largely built by Zach Wilson and the struggles the Jets passing attack had with him at quarterback. Mike White has thrown for over 300 yards in two of his three career starts, and this is a Jets team that when anyone besides Zach Wilson has been the quarterback, they’ve averaged 304 yards passing per game. This week they get to take on Minnesota who is allowing the most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks on the season at 293.

ROADMAP

Jalen Hurts Over 221.5 Passing Yards

The way to beat Tennessee is through the air as the Titans are allowing the second-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks (286). The reason here is that most teams do not even attempt to run the ball against this defensive front as they have one of if not the best run-stopping unit in the NFL. The Titans have allowed every quarterback except two this season to top 221 yards and those two who failed are Daniel Jones and Davis Mills. Hurts over the last three games has failed to top 200 yards, but has faced three very good defenses two of which are in the top 5 pass defenses in Green Bay and Indianapolis while Washington has been one of the better pass defending units over the second-half of the season.

Dameon Pierce Under 68.5 Rushing Yards

Dameon Pierce is a bit of an enigma as this is a player who prior to his last two games had 80 or more yards rushing in six of seven games. However, over the last two games he has completely fallen off the map as he had 10 carries for 8 yards and 5 carries for 8 yards. Pierce could be hitting a bit of a rookie wall as this is a player who never had more than 106 carries in any season in college, and he is already at 180 carries in 2022. With the Texans being 1-11-1, they may be more cautious on how they use Pierce going forward not wanting to run him into the ground when he almost certainly will be a building piece as this offense looks to improve in 2023.

Nick Chubb Over 94.5 Rushing Yards

This season Nick Chubb has been game script dependent as in wins, he is averaging 117 yards rushing and just 81 yards rushing in losses. This week, the Browns are taking on a Texans defense that is allowing a staggering 143 yards rushing per game to opposing running backs and they have one of the worst linebacking units in the NFL as Christian Harris and Christian Kirksey have been inconsistent to say the least when it comes to stopping the run. This should be a game where the Browns ease Deshaun Watson into it as he has only been with the team for two weeks, while relying on Chubb to ensure they win the game.

Chris Olave Over 59.5 Receiving Yards

Chris Olave still has a chance at winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, as he has been one of the Saints bright spots this season in an otherwise disappointing 4-7 start to the year. Olave has topped 59.5 yards in 7 of his 11 games this season and has done so in each of his last two games in difficult matchups against the Rams and 49ers. The Buccaneers are a defense that has taken steps back this season as they have not been the dominant unit against both the pass and run as they had been over the last two seasons. The Buccaneers have allowed 10 receivers to top 59.5 yards including Olave who did so back in Week 2. Look for the Saints to try to win this game through the air in what is still an important divisional game as the Buccaneers lead the division at 5-6, with the Saints just one game back at 4-7.