Week 13 Plays
Justin Herbert Over 303.5 Passing Yards
To put it mildly, the Titans pass defense is absolutely abysmal. Over the last two weeks, the Titans have allowed 368 and 380 yards passing and are averaging allowing 300 yards passing per game. Meanwhile, Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense are clicking now that they are fully healthy as Herbert has thrown for 335 and 367 yards over the last two weeks. The Titans are without Amani Hooker at safety, and are missing three corners this week. The Titans boast one of the best run defenses in the NFL which the Chargers are one of the teams that are fully comfortable abandoning the run and going with a pass heavy approach by getting the ball in space to Austin Ekeler through the air as an extension of the run game.
Trevor Lawrence Under 249.5 Passing Yards
Trevor Lawrence has looked great the last three weeks as he has averaged 289 yards passing in that span. However, these numbers are a little bit skewed as Lawrence threw for 321 against the Ravens and 368 against the Titans. Both of these defenses are in the top 10 in passing yards per game. This week, Lawrence has to go up against the Cowboys who are allowing the third fewest passing yards on the season and have only allowed one quarterback to top 250 yards all season. The one weakspot for the Cowboys has been the loss of Anthony Brown as Kelvin Joseph has struggled in replacing him. Even still, this is the best pass rush in the NFL with Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence that forces opposing quarterbacks to get rid of the ball quickly which makes up for the weakspot in Joseph.
Miles Sanders Over 69.5 Rushing Yards
The way to beat the Bears is on the ground, as the Bears are allowing 114 rushing yards to opposing running backs on the season. Sanders has been great, as he has topped 140 yards rushing in two of his last three games both of which were favorable matchups against the Giants and Packers. The Eagles boast the best offensive line in the NFL, and are facing one of the weakest front seven’s in the NFL. The Bears defense have allowed six running backs to top 69 yards this season, they have been propped up by a fairly weak schedule over the second-half of the season as they have primarily faced committee running backs. Since Week 8, the Bears have faced Miami, Detroit, Atlanta, NY Jets, and Green Bay all of which boast a committee approach, but Sanders has been dominating the snap counts as of late as he had 66% of the snaps last week in a 48-22 blowout win.
Isiah Pacheco to score a touchdown -110
The Chiefs are projected to score 31.5 points as 14.5 point favorites this week against the Texans. The way to beat the Texans is on the ground as the Texans are allowing the most rushing yards to opposing running backs this season (141). The Texans have allowed 18 touchdowns to opposing running backs which leads the NFL this season. While the Chiefs are known for historically inconsistent volume with the running backs, this is Pacheco’s backfield as he has 15 or more touches in each of his last 5 games.
Zonovan Knight Under 83.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Since Week 8, the Lions have had one of the best run defense in the NFL as they have not allowed a running back to top 10.6 fantasy points while facing a gauntlet of running backs in Saquon Barkley, Dalvin Cook, Travis Etienne, David Montgomery, and Aaron Jones. No running back has topped 83.5 against the Lions since Week 7 in which Tony Pollard had 109 yards. As great as Zonovan Knight has looked, the offense was much improved overall with Mike White at quarterback. With White out, the offense goes back to Zach Wilson who struggled to consistently move the ball which should hurt the number of touches that White will get this week.
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