This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
There has been a revolving door at corner for the Cardinals so far this season, and they are going to face a tough test this week against Brown and the Eagles. The shuffling of Marco Wilson and Trayvon Mullen to the outside will make what is already the seventh-worst perimeter defense an even bigger hole to attack. Brown lines up on the outside 75% of the time and should see a lot of Wilson. Wilson has been targeted on 24% of his coverage snaps and will likely be picked on early and often. This game has a lot of offensive potential, and Brown will likely land on the right side of it.
Gordon is having a season to forget so far as he is currently allowing 0.62 fantasy points per coverage snap, which is second worst only behind Terrance Mitchell from Tennessee. Osborn has seen only slightly less of a target share than Adam Thielen and has the better matchup of the two this week. Osborn scored the game-winning touchdown against the Lions two weeks ago. Look for him to see an increased share this week and to be a sneaky flex play in daily fantasy.
As mentioned above, Mitchell is currently allowing the most fantasy points per coverage snap in the league this season. The Titans’ secondary is currently allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers as well as the second-most to outside receivers. McLaurin has had a very up-and-down season so far this year but is walking into a great matchup. He is only being targeted on 15% of his routes run right now, but that could all change with a matchup against Mitchell looming. Curtis Samuel and Johan Dotson have been hogging the touchdowns, but McLaurin should be the more productive receiver this week.
Normally Adebo would line up against DK Metcalf on the left side, but the Saints typically use Marshon Lattimore to shadow big receivers like Metcalf. This will leave Adebo on Lockett for the majority of the game and that puts the advantage squarely on Lockett. Adebo is currently allowing 0.52 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted roughly 23% of the time. Geno Smith has started to click with Metcalf, and he will see his targets, but this week has the makings of the Lockett big game we have become accustomed to every season. Lockett moves squarely into a WR2 position this week with a WR1 ceiling.
The Rams' secondary has not looked good so far this year. They are currently allowing the most fantasy points to opposing receivers and are very thin behind Ramsey. There is no guarantee that Ramsey is going to stick with Lamb this week, but Ramsey is still allowing 0.35 fantasy points per coverage snap even if he does. Cooper Rush has done a good job getting the ball into Lamb’s hands, and there should be no downgrade this week. Look for the Dallas offense to run on all cylinders this week against a surprisingly down Rams defense.
TE Zach Ertz (ARZ vs PHI)
There are a lot of things working in Ertz’s favor this week. He has a revenge game against the franchise that traded him to the Cardinals, and he has already seen a lot of success this season. He is currently sitting at TE3 in fantasy scoring and has scored double-digit fantasy points in every game this season. He has been targeted 10 times in the red zone, and his four end zone targets are tied with Travis Kelce for most at the position. The Philadelphia defense has been tough so far this year, but Ertz has so many things working in his favor that he is a must start.
TE David Njoku (CLE vs LAC)
Cleveland has had a tough road so far this year, but Njoku is currently playing up to the massive deal he signed in the offseason. He had 5 catches for 73 yards and a fumble lost last week, but his usage numbers continue to be high. He currently leads the team in yards per route run and has been targeted on nearly 30% of those routes. He could see an increase in volume if the Browns are chasing points against the Chargers this week and is a good bet to approach double-digit fantasy points again this week.
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