Rushing Matchups Conference Round

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Top Rushing Matchups

Cincinnati at Kansas City

After a disappointing season rushing the ball, the Bengals turned to their rushing attack to carry them to the surprisingly dominant victory against Buffalo last week. Joe Mixon had 105 yards on 20 carries which was just the second time that Mixon had topped 100 yards this season. The Bengals have offensive line issues as left tackle Jonah Williams and right guard Alex Cappa missed last week and are not practicing so far this week. Joe Mixon and the Bengals’ rushing attack have had a year to forget this season as Mixon totaled just 814 yards on the year, and volume over the second half of the season has been a concern as he averaged 17.3 carries per game in his first seven games of the season compared to just 11.6 in his last seven games. It’s a great sign for the Bengals that Mixon was able to get 20 carries this past week.

The Chiefs’ run defense is far from a perfect unit as the team is built to anticipate high-scoring games with defensive ends specializing in rushing the passer, while safeties Juan Thornhill and Justin Reid are coverage-first type players. The Chiefs, on the season, are allowing just 91 yards per game to opposing running backs which is the 14th-best in the NFL, but that does not tell the full story as the Chiefs are allowing the eighth-fewest rushing attempts per game at 20 but are allowing 4.5 yards-per-carry to opposing running backs this season. When teams commit to the run, this is a defense that has struggled to stop the run as they’ve allowed four running backs to top 100 yards this season, including 106 yards to Samaje Perine and the Bengals back in Week 13. What makes Kansas City’s overall run defense statistically as good as it is, is primarily that their offense gets out to an early lead, as they are second in the NFL in first-half points at 15.7 per game.

San Francisco at Philadelphia

The big story heading into this week is the health of Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey will play, but both he and Eli Mitchell both missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday, and while McCaffrey has stated that there is zero chance that he will miss this week, there is a decent percentage that McCaffrey will be less than 100%. As a runner, McCaffrey has been up and down this season since coming over to San Francisco. Over the last eight games, McCaffrey has topped 100 yards four times, while failing to top 50 yards in three of those games. The 49ers' offensive line is one that is built from the outside in. The tackles are elite with Trent Williams and Mike McGlinchey, but the interior has some holes as rookie guard Spencer Burford has struggled run blocking this season.

The Eagles run defense is one that is filled with talent but was primarily built to rush the passer instead of being an elite run-stopping unit. However, the team did address this mid-season by adding significant size to their defensive line in Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh, who were both added in Week 9, as they allowed just 77 yards in their last eight games of the season. Last week, the Eagles defense held strong for most of the game outside of a 39-yard run from Saquon Barkley once the game was already out of hand as the Eagles were up 28-0. As talented as the Eagles are on the defensive line with players such as Javon Hargrave, Fletcher Cox, and Josh Sweat, this is a defense that is incredibly deep as they rotated 10 defensive ends and tackles. If there is a weakness for the Eagles, it is in the secondary, as Darius Slay, James Bradberry, and C.J Gardner Johnson, while excellent pass defenders, have struggled at times against the run.

Bottom Rushing Matchups

Philadelphia vs San Francisco

The Eagles utilized their elite offensive line this past week to carry them to a dominant offensive performance against the New York Giants. The league’s best offensive line, led by center Jason Kelce, ran the ball 44 times for 268 yards while throwing the ball just 24 times. The Eagles' offense is extremely dynamic and can beat you in so many ways, but at its core, they’re a run-first attack that then utilizes that running game to set up the passing game with the dangerous weapons in AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. This is an offense that is fifth in the NFL in rushing yards, as they average 147.6 rushing yards per game. One encouraging sign for the Eagles is that Miles Sanders' volume concerns seem to be resolved. Heading into the playoffs, he had 12 or fewer carries in three of his previous four games, but Sanders had 17 carries this past week in a 38-7 blowout victory where Sanders did not play most of the second half.

The 49ers continue to be the best run defense in the NFL. Last week, they completely neutralized the Cowboys rushing attack, holding Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard to just 48 rushing yards on 16 carries. Where the 49ers excel is at the linebacker position as Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw make up the best linebacker unit in the NFL, while safety Tashaun Gipson is an elite run-stopping safety. The 49ers have not allowed a running back to top 70 yards his season, and only two teams have had a combined running back total of over 100 yards, which was Atlanta in Week 6 and Las Vegas in Week 17. If there is one area of weakness for the 49ers, it could be against mobile quarterbacks. On the season, they’ve allowed seven quarterbacks to top 20 yards rushing, including Marcus Mariota, to run for 50 yards on six carries back in Week 6.

Kansas City vs Cincinnati

The Chiefs’ rushing attack is going to be relied upon to get them to the Super Bowl as Patrick Mahomes II is dealing with an ankle injury that will be difficult to be the same elusiveness that makes him so dangerous. The good news for Kansas City is that Isiah Pacheco looked great this past week, rushing the ball 12 times for 95 yards, including a 30+ yard run for the second straight week. Volume remains a concern for Pacheco, however, as over his last three outings, he is averaging 9.7 carries per game. In the seven prior games, he averaged 15.6. Last week, we saw Jerick McKinnon get involved in the rushing attack as he had 11 carries but was mostly unsuccessful with just 25 yards. McKinnon has primarily been utilized as a receiver this season, as it was just his second game with 10 or more carries. The Chiefs boast one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, led by center Creed Humphry and left tackle Orlando Brown, so it will be critical that the Chiefs get Pacheco going in order to win this game this week.

The Bengals' run defense completely shut down Buffalo last week, holding Devin Singletary and James Cook to a combined 38 yards rushing yards in the dominant victory. The Bengals defensively are a unit that has evolved from a struggling defense early in the season to one of the better run-stopping units in the NFL. This transition is mostly due to the return of defensive tackle D.J. Reader who, since he returned from injury, the Bengals have allowed just 68 yards rushing per game to opposing running backs. However, the transition is more than just Reader, as his presence has elevated the linebackers in Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt, who have become good run-stopping linebackers after struggling to start the season, and Jessie Bates at safety has become one of the best in the NFL at stopping the run. This is a defense that has not allowed a 100-yard rusher since the return of Reader, and only one running back has topped 70 yards - Najee Harris in Reader’s first game back from injury.