Sunday Showdown Week 12

Photo: Bill Streicher, USA Today Sports

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Green Bay Packers are heading to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles as 6.5-point underdogs. The total is set at 46.5. The most important factor of this slate is how we build our lineups around Jalen Hurts. He’s come in at a hefty $11,600 but he will still be a staple of our lineups. The Eagles are scoring the fourth most points per game in the league, and Hurts is heavily involved as both a passer and a rusher. Draftkings has done a nice job pricing up some of the other options with similar ceilings in A.J. Brown and Aaron Jones, so we are forced to make difficult decisions with Hurts. The decision gets even tougher when considering whether to play Aaron Rodgers. Pairing Rodgers with Hurts forces us off one of Jones or Brown and requires multiple low-priced pass catchers. We’ll be looking to build around four Eagles while pairing Rodgers with Jones or one of his receivers.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Romeo Doubs– Ankle – Out
• Dallas Goedert – Shoulder - Out

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Jalen Hurts
2. Aaron Jones
3. Miles Sanders
4. Aaron Rodgers
5. A.J. Brown

GREEN BAY OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Aaron Rodgers $10,000 – Captain or Flex

Over the past two weeks, Aaron Rodgers has regained the efficiency he’s been known for throughout his career. Despite completing just 38 passes he’s managed to produce 451 yards and five touchdowns. This is only a partially fair assessment, as all five touchdowns miraculously went to Christian Watson. Even still, it is no safe assumption he would not have completed passes to other receivers. We’re going to look to pair Rodgers with some receivers outside of Watson in hopes that their roster percentage comes in lower than it should due to Watson’s incredible two-week stretch.