Photo: Kirby Lee, USA Today Sports

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Indianapolis Colts are heading to Dallas to take on the Cowboys as 10.5-point underdogs. The total is set at 44. The Cowboys are passing at one of the lowest rates in the league, and that is not likely to change as 10.5-point home favorites. It feels good to finally write up Tony Pollard ahead of Ezekiel Elliott, but they are both plenty viable this week. The Colts have been balanced over the past three weeks with Jonathan Taylor getting 20 touches per game while Matt Ryan still averages over 30 pass attempts. Game script doesn’t seem to matter. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jeff Saturday had a sticky note stashed away that says “Make sure Taylor gets 20 touches”. We’re paying up for Taylor even as a heavy underdog on the road and stacking the Cowboys.

INJURY ROUND-UP

For the first time this season, we are not expected to miss any players from this game.

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Jonathan Taylor
2. Dak Prescott
3. CeeDee Lamb
4. Michael Pittman
5. Tony Pollard

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Matt Ryan $9,200 – Flex

Matt Ryan passes at least 30 times a game, but his target distribution has been getting less predictable. The Colts’ pass catchers provide the best opportunity to get unique. We’ve got a small sample size and the Colts have yet to get blown out under Saturday so it would not be outside the realm of possibility for the Colts to pass at an above-average rate. I’m not looking to Ryan at Captain, but he’s a great flex play with one of his receivers in lineups containing four Cowboys.