Sunday Showdown Week 14

Photo: Sam Navarro, USA Today Sports

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Miami Dolphins are heading to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers as 3.5-point favorites. The total is set at 53.5. After quite some time we’ve finally arrived at a true “play whoever you want” slate. We’ve got six players projected for 15 or more points, with a couple of others still bolstering slate winning upside. The Chargers have the highest pass rate in the league, while the Dolphins rank 8^th. With so many viable options, the most important factor will be roster percentage. Every week we’re looking to make unique viable lineups, but with two teams projected over 25 points scored, we can let the field make most of the decisions for us. I’m choosing to approach this game with Miami covering handily, so I can land on Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert more often.

INJURY ROUND-UP

River Cracraft – Calf – Questionable

Durham Smythe – Knee – Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Jaylen Waddle
2. Tyreek Hill
3. Tua Tagovailoa
4. Austin Ekeler
5. Keenan Allen
6. Justin Herbert

MIAMI OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Tua Tagovailoa $10,400 – Captain or Flex

Over the past five weeks, Tua Tagovailoa has hit the 300-yard-bonus twice and has been within 15 yards in each of the other three games. He’s attempted 30 or more passes in six straight. In week eight, Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jalen Waddle all scored roughly 30 Draftkings points. This offensive explosion came in a 31-27 win over the Detroit Lions who at the time ranked top-10 in pass rate. Tagovailoa has been the highest scorer on his team in two of the last five games. With so much attention being paid to Tagovailoa’s pass catchers, I will be playing him as Captain with at least three receiving options.