The Gut Check No.584: Isiah Pacheco Progress Report

Photo: Kim Klement, USA Today Sports

Preseason Thoughts on Pacheco

The excerpt below is from my preseason Top 10 feature about Pacheco, which includes a link to his scouting report from the Rookie Scouting Portfolio (by the way, there will be an early-bird discount for pre-ordering the 2023 RSP announced very soon).

The segment also discusses how the Chiefs implemented plays that fit Pacheco best. The decision to implement these plays was likely in response to how opposing defenses were using two-high looks from a nickel base to limit the vertical passing game. This makes a lot of units vulnerable to gap-style runs like Power and Counter.

At the same time, gap plays also dovetail nicely with Pacheco's decision-making strengths as a runner, which opened the door for Pacheco to become a bigger offensive contributor as the season unfolded.

The Chiefs drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire to fit a zone offense and valued him as a prospect with the potential to deliver offensive production on par with Brian Westbrook. While the jury is still out on that potential becoming a reality, and many fantasy GMs have shut the door on the possibility, the eternally reactive football public has moved on to their next preseason Chiefs darling in Pacheco.

Pacheco's scouting report has NFL-starter upside. He's a more powerful and explosive runner than Edwards-Helaire and an excellent pass-catcher. Although Pacheco lacks Edwards-Helaire's route acumen and advanced decision-making with zone blocking, he's capable of developing in both areas. At Rutgers, Pacheco ran a lot of gap plays behind an offensive line that didn't always reach their assignments in a timely manner and this made Pacheco's job more difficult. It also slowed his development with advanced decision-making concepts between the tackles because he didn't have a line he could trust.

This certainly factors into his fantasy future, but last weekend's preseason game against the Packers may have revealed that Pacheco could have the potential for a fantasy "present." The reason is the plays the Chiefs ran with Pacheco during the game.

Another good setup of a gap play by Isiah Pacheco #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/YaIcvpGBk3

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) August 28, 2022

The incorporation of gap plays for Pacheco could mean the Chiefs liked enough of what they saw from the rookie and decided they want to maximize his potential to contribute this year. Don't be mistaken, Edwards-Helaire is the starter. Still, the fact that the coaches incorporated plays that fit Pacheco's strengths could be an indication that they see the value of getting him on the field in packages favorable for big-play production.

Gap plays marshall the collective forces of the offense to the opening of one gap. The brunt of the work is on the line so the runner doesn't have to do too much manipulation of opponents, instead hitting the crease hard with explosive speed and quickness. An effective gap scheme is also fantastic at setting up play-action passing because defenders are more likely to respect the run when the offense pulls a guard.

This development doesn't increase Pacheco's current fantasy value, especially if you're drafting more teams this late in the summer. It does solidify his value as a contributor who could see his role increase as a committee option if the offense has success with these packages early in the year.

Here we are, entering Week 12, and Pacheco has sewn up the lead role as Kansas City's ballcarrier. His past two weeks of production place him at RB25 in PPR formats and RB21 in non-PPR leagues. Is this the sign of a draft day steal of epic proportions, or should we temper our expectations?

The film analysis shows that Pacheco is an improving player who fits into the Chiefs' offensive scheme as a runner with potential for growth in other facets of his game. It also reveals where the excitement over Pacheco may have a lower ceiling long-term than people hope.

Pacheco's Past Two Weeks of Tape

The Jaguars and Chargers are the 18th and 3rd most generous units for running back fantasy points. Even so, my style of film analysis examines a lot of what the player can do within his control that transcends the quality of the opposition.

Flaws with film analysis can lead to false positives and false negatives because it doesn't focus on movement, technique, processing speed, and decision-making concepts that drive the success of the running back position. Here are the insights you'll see discussed in these 15-minutes of plays from these two games:

• Pacheco's strengths at Rutgers were with gap schemes (Counter, Power, Trap, Toss) and the Chiefs run a lot of Counter that plays to his quick and decisive running style.
• He isn't a powerful runner, but his quickness, pad level, and high knees through contact require defenders to hit and wrap to end the play.
• The more downfield momentum Pacheco generates, the more yardage he can generate after contact.
• He will attack narrow creases when running gap schemes and demonstrates decision-making savvy in difficult scenarios.
• Pacheco is still learning to approach zone schemes with similar savvy in difficult scenarios and has lapses where he'll try to bounce runs that he shouldn't.
• He is improving with stair-stepping runs to the outside rather than forcing his way to the edge without manipulating unblocked defenders.
• His footwork to set up cutbacks on zone runs is still a work in progress, and he's prone to slips and stumbles with techniques common to cutting back on a zone play.
• An excellent pass catcher, Pacheco isn't earning a lot of receiving opportunities because his pass protection has lapses that allow opponents to run through him to the quarterback.