Thursday Showdown Week 15

Photo: Jerry Habraken, USA Today Sports

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The San Francisco 49ers are heading to Seattle to take on the Seahawks as 3.5-point favorites. The game total is set at 43.5. The Seahawks have dipped slightly since their incredibly hot start to the season, but they’re still sixth in the league in points scored. They’re taking on the number one defense in the league and an offense that just dropped 35 points on the Buccaneers. The total is indicative of multiple key injuries, but if both Ken Walker III and Brock Purdy are active and healthy, this game could easily hit the over. Most of the field builds around a hard-nosed, low-scoring NFC West matchup, so heavily stacking both passing games could be a worthy pivot.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Brock Purdy – Ribs – Limited
• Christian McCaffrey – Knee – Limited
• Deebo Samuel – Ankle – Out
• Ken Walker III – Ankle – Full Participant
• DeeJay Dallas – Ankle – Did Not Participate

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Christian McCaffrey
2. DK Metcalf
3. Geno Smith
4. Ken Walker III
5. Brandon Aiyuk

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Brock Purdy $9,600 – Flex

Brock Purdy logged two limited practices and is expected to be a game-time decision. We’ve seen enough NFL action from Josh Johnson for me to feel comfortable keeping him in the player pool if he starts, but he won’t be in Captain consideration for small-field tournaments. If Purdy is active, expect him to be highly efficient. We’ve seen two very different games from him in terms of passing, but both resulted in two touchdowns and roughly 200 yards. Another efficient game with two touchdowns will be plenty for Purdy to find his way into optimal lineups.