Contract Forecasts: New Orleans Saints RBs

Photo: Brad Rempel, USA Today Sports

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Green Bay Packers RBs | Cincinnati Bengals WRs

Forecasting contract situations is an underrated yet critical piece of dynasty roster construction. Players like Dalvin Cook, Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, and Stefon Diggs have instilled fear into managers in recent memory, but knowing about potential barriers to fantasy production or scene changes can benefit dynasty managers. This series will use Over The Cap to look at possible contract situations, analyzing their likelihood to become problematic for fantasy and how to approach each player's value now. Up next are the New Orleans Saints running backs.

Alvin Kamara

• Age: 28
• Contract: 5 years, $75,000,000
• 2024 Cap Hit: $18,877,000
• 2024 Cap Percentage: 7.4%

The uniqueness of how the Saints structured Alvin Kamara's contract makes his outlook incredibly murky, especially if the decline he showed in 2022 carries into 2023 and beyond. The Saints are notorious for utilizing void years to manipulate contracts, but they may have backed themselves into a corner with Kamara's deal. The team's only option is to restructure, though with the running back market, it's unlikely that Kamara will be very willing to do that. Cutting him next year, an option that may or may not be viable, depending on his performance, would result in just north of $17M in dead money. The only situation where that makes sense is going into full tank mode, something the Saints have traditionally refused to do.

Kamara reportedly gained back some burst and looks more explosive than he did a year ago. Assuming he makes it through his short suspension early in 2023 and remains an impact player for the Saints, he's almost a lock to stay with the team through his age-30 season in 2025. Kamara thus becomes a fine buy in Dynasty, as the market has shifted his value down to RB33 behind rookie Kendre Miller.

Jamaal Williams

• Age: 28
• Contract: 3 years, $12,000,000
• 2024 Cap Hit: $4,630,000
• 2024 Cap Percentage: 1.8%

Jamaal Williams is less of a lock to remain with the team past 2023 because the money is lighter, but it's worth noting that cutting him after 2023 saves just $700,000 when designated as a post-June 1st transaction. At his salary, Williams is a respectable injury replacement and piece of a committee backfield and could offer some of the same benefits that the Mark Ingram-Alvin Kamara backfield did when the Saints were still inside their offensive prime. Still, the team's interest in free-agent running backs indicates Williams may not be part of the long-term plans. The bottom line: Williams's contract is light enough that his performance in 2023 will dictate his presence within this backfield moving forward. Contending teams could look to move for Williams now before flipping him near the end of Kamara's early-season suspension.