Week 18 is always tough because of varying team motivations. Some teams are treating their game as a must-win (because it is for some squads), and some are ready for the regular season to be over and using Week 18 as another bye. Our Jeff Bell has this covered in full here. But here's a brief rundown.
Teams Playing with Motivation
- Minnesota Vikings
- Green Bay Packers
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Atlanta Falcons
- New Orleans Saints
- Seattle Seahawks
- Dallas Cowboys
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Philadelphia Eagles (Can get the No. 2 seed with a win and a loss by the Cowboys)
- Detroit Lions (Have an outside chance to get the No. 2 seed)
- Chicago Bears (Can eliminate the rival Packers from the playoffs)
Favorite Fantasy Game Environments
- Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions - Over/Under 45.5
- Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers - Over/Under 44.5
- Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints - Over/Under 42.5
Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots
- Cowboys on the road against Commanders - Implied Team Total 29.5
- Seahawks on the road against Cardinals - Implied Team Total 25
- Jaguars on the road against Ttians - Implied Team Total 22.5
- Buccaneers on the road against Panthers - Implied Team Total 21.5
The Cowboys can win the NFC East title with a win or an Eagles' loss. They'll be motivated here. Dak Prescott has been fantastic this season and is in the literal dream matchup here against a Commanders defense that ranks dead last in both Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.
This is a literal do-or-die spot. The Bucs win the NFC South with a win over the Panthers and are eliminated from the playoffs if they lose. Baker Mayfield has a favorable matchup on tap against a Panthers defense that only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Jordan Love is on an absolute heater. He's thrown for two or more touchdown passes in seven of his past eight games and is priced affordably at home in a must-win game against the Bears.
The 49ers are resting their starters, but Sam Darnold will still have Kyle Shanahan, the architect behind the league's best offense, in his ear. Darnold is at home, priced at just $5,200, at gets to face backups on the Rams.
|Travis Etienne Jr.
This is a literal do-or-die spot. The Bucs win the NFC South with a win over the Panthers and are eliminated from the playoffs if they lose. Rachaad White ranks sixth in the NFL in opportunities per game (19.9), the Buccaneers are 5.5-point favorites, and White gets to attack a Panthers defense that only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Khalil Herbert has been busy over the past two weeks. Opportunities: 22 and 21, total yards: 121 and 129, and touchdowns: 1 and 1. Herbert is priced at just $5,700 and gets to attack a struggling Packers defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed since Week 8.
The Jaguars are fighting for a playoff spot. Travis Etienne Jr. ranks sixth in opportunities per game (19.9), and he has a favorable matchup against a Titans defense that only ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 19th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Like the other running back in this game, Khalil Herbert, Aaron Jones has also been heavily utilized over his past two games. Opportunities: 24 and 21, total yards: 135 and 130. Jones is at home in a must-win game. Chicago's defense has been solid as of late, but Jones is a dual-threat talent that can get there despite the tough spot.
Continue reading this content with a HALL OF FAME subscription.
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, NBC Sports EDGE