A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. Value is available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. To point out this value, we asked our staff to look through IDP ADP from TheIDPShow.com and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
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Here are the defensive backs who received multiple votes:
And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
Kamren Curl, Washington Commanders
Gary Davenport: Two years ago, Curl came up just one stop-shy of the 100-tackle mark. Those tackle numbers dipped to 83 in 2022, but that was largely due to five missed games—the 24-year-old was on pace to pile up 117 tackles last season, numbers that would have slotted Curl fifth among safeties in total stops. You would like to see better big-play numbers from Curl, but there’s little reason to think he can’t flirt with 120 total tackles in 2023. If Curl can do that and bump the big plays just a tad, he could crack the top 10 at the position—for a low-end DB2 price tag. He’s an ideal target for IDP managers who (smartly) fade defensive backs.
Joseph Haggan: Curl is an easy choice here for me at DB20. He is a volume snap player (99%), with 71.66% of those snaps coming either in the box, on the defensive line, or in the slot. Curl has averaged 6.5 tackles over the past two seasons and just under seven tackles last season. The Commanders have one of the weaker linebacker groups in the NFL, with Cody Barton and Jamin Davis pegged as the two starters. This should allow Curl plenty of opportunities for tackle production, especially while posting just a 5.7% missed tackle rate over the last two seasons. Curl has easy 100+ tackle potential and should turn in easy DB1 numbers in 2023.
Tripp Brebner: The Commanders are one of the few remaining NFL teams with a clear disparity in base personnel safety deployment. Curl is the box safety. He collected tackles per snap at a solid rate of 11.4% in 2022. He was much less fortunate than his running mate, Darrick Forrest, with takeaways. The entire team forced turnovers at a very low rate despite playing solid defense. The Commanders used their first two draft picks on defensive backs and look for Chase Young to rebound in 2023. Curl's stock will rise with them.
Kyle Bellefeuil: Kamren Curl coming off the board as DB20 makes him not only a great value but an excellent target for drafters who wait on the defensive back position. After posting a career-high 99 tackles (62 solos) in 2021, Curl was well on his way to setting a new career mark last year (83 tackles in 12 games) before a thumb injury caused him to miss time. Curl also has an IDP-conducive role for defensive backs, spending 66.5% of his total defensive snaps in the IDP sweet spot (box, slot, and defensive line) over the past two seasons. There’s apparent DB1 potential in Curl’s game, and his current backend DB2 price tag feels like a bargain.
Player Receiving 2 Votes
Justin Simmons, Denver Broncos
Tripp Brebner: Simmons finished 2022 as a DB1 in fantasy points per game despite playing in a defensive scheme that prioritizes coverage first, second, and third. New coordinator Vance Joseph will use his safeties to attack the offensive backfield, adding both tackle and big-play opportunities for Simmons and his running mate. The one-time All-Pro should have little trouble repeating his DB1 feat in a role that propelled Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson to similar heights.
Kyle Bellefeuil: Before missing five games last season, Justin Simmons was the model of durability. From 2018 to 2021, Simmons didn’t miss a game, logging four consecutive 1,000+ snap seasons. The production also came with durability, as Simmons averaged 91.5 tackles, four interceptions, and 10 passes defended per season over those four years. Simmons was well on his way to hitting those marks last year had it not been for the injury. Simmons is reliable, productive, and, as Tripp pointed out, in a system with Vance Joseph where he should continue to flourish.
