Week 7 First Look

Photo: Kirby Lee, USA Today Sports

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In our Wednesday morning first look at the Week 7 Main Slate, we start by taking a big-picture view of the slate as the first step in our preparation process. The goal here is to give you some information-packed visualizations to quickly set the table for the much more in-depth breakdowns and player recommendations that will come later in the week. In addition, we want to start identifying the teams and players who are most likely to be popular so we can narrow our focus as soon as possible and start digging deeper into some of the players who stand out as potential top options.

The Week 7 First Look will start out by breaking down the lines and team totals. We are looking at the best spots overall and which teams are projected to score more than they typically do. We will also identify the players that are popping out as top values in the early-week Footballguys consensus projections. Lastly, we will dig into some usage stats and how each player on the slate ranks in key metrics.

Implied Team Totals and Spreads

The above visualization shows each team's implied team total and how much they are favored (negative numbers for underdogs).

• The upper right-hand quadrant shows teams that are favorites and expected to score an above-average amount of points. Players from these teams are prime targets for our DFS lineups this week. The Chiefs and Bills are where we typically see them, in the far upper-right corner. The usual suspects for both teams are in good spots. It is worth noting that the Seahawks are right there as well. Geno Smith is very affordable this week, which may make him a popular play, given how much Seattle's team total pops out.
• The bottom right-hand quadrant contains teams that are favored but in what are expected to be low-scoring games. These games can often set up well for running backs. Josh Jacobs has been getting massive usage all season and is finally in a great spot.
• The upper left-hand quadrant is teams that are underdogs but still expected to score an above-average number of points in games with shootout potential. The game script should set up well for the passing games of these offenses. Last week, there was not a single underdog with an implied team total higher than the slate average, which was a sign that we were unlikely to see any shootouts. In Week 7, both the Chargers (facing the Chiefs) and the Broncos (facing the Packers) are dogs with high totals. Those two games should be near the top of our list for game stacks.
• The bottom left-hand quadrant is teams that are underdogs and not expected to score much. We want to approach rostering players from these teams with caution.