Week 12 First Look

Photo: Douglas DeFelice, USA Today Sports

In our Wednesday morning first look at the Week 12 Main Slate, we take a big-picture view of the slate as a first step in our preparation process. The goal here is to give you some information-packed visualizations to quickly set the table for the much more in-depth breakdowns and player recommendations that will come later in the week. In addition, we want to start identifying the teams and players most likely to be popular so we can narrow our focus as soon as possible and start digging deeper into some of the players who stand out as potential top options.

Our Week 12 First Look will start out by breaking down the lines and team totals. We are looking at the best spots overall and which teams are projected to score more than they typically do. We will also identify the players that are popping out as top values in the early-week Footballguys consensus projections. Lastly, we will dig into some usage stats and how each player on the slate ranks in key metrics.

Implied Team Totals and Spreads

The above visualization shows each team’s implied team total and how much they are favored (negative numbers for underdogs).

• The upper right-hand quadrant shows teams that are favorites and expected to score an above-average amount of points. Players from these teams are prime targets for our DFS lineups this week. We have some usual suspects (Eagles and Chiefs), but we also have some teams that usually are not in this quadrant. The Colts and Falcons look to be in great spots this week. Jonathan Taylor and Bijan Robinson have expected game scripts that are very favorable.
• The bottom right-hand quadrant contains teams that are favored but in what are expected to be low-scoring games. The likely game script sets up well for Derrick Henry and Javonte Williams this week, despite low team totals.
• The upper left-hand quadrant is teams that are underdogs but still expected to score an above-average number of points in games with shootout potential. The game script should set up well for the passing games of these offenses. We have an abnormally large number of teams this week in this category. The passing games for Houston, Arizona, and Buffalo should be in positive game scripts.
• The bottom left-hand quadrant is teams that are underdogs and not expected to score much. We want to approach rostering players from these teams with caution. As a Bengals fan, it is sad to see the team down here and realize this is the new reality for the remainder of the 2023 season.