Week 13 First Look

Photo: Charles LeClaire, USA Today Sports

In our Wednesday morning first look at the Week 13 Main Slate, we begin our weekly preparation process by taking a big-picture view of the slate. The goal here is to give you some info-packed visualizations and tables as an appetizer for the much more in-depth main courses that come later in the week. In addition, we want to start to identify the teams and players who are most likely to be popular so we can narrow our focus as soon as possible, and start digging deeper into the pluses and minuses of the players who stand out as potential top options.

Our Week 13 First Look will start out by breaking down the lines and team totals. We are looking both at the best spots overall, and the teams projected to score more than they typically do, which is a sneakier path to success. We are also going to identify the players that are popping out as top values in the early-week Footballguys Consensus Projections. Lastly, we will dig into usage stats and how each player on the slate ranks in key metrics.

Implied Team Totals and Spreads

The above visualization shows each team’s implied team total and how much they are favored by (negative numbers for underdogs).

• The upper right-hand quadrant shows teams that are favorites and expected to score an above-average amount of points. Players from these teams are prime targets for our DFS lineups this week. Another week, another huge team total for the Dolphins. Deciding how to handle De'Von Achane in his return is going to be critical this week. The Steelers (minus Matt Canada) make a rare appearance in the top right quadrant. C.J. Stroud and the Texans are also new additions to this quadrant but could become mainstays moving forward.
• The bottom right-hand quadrant contains favored teams but in what are expected to be low-scoring games. These game scripts often bode well for the team's running back. The Falcons, featuring Bijan Robinson, are the only team here this week.
• The upper left-hand quadrant is teams that are underdogs but still expected to score an above-average number of points in games with shootout potential. The game script should set up well for the passing games of these offenses. The Eagles, somewhat shockingly, are home dogs this week. The potential game script seems favorable for Jalen Hurts.
• The bottom left-hand quadrant is teams that are underdogs and not expected to score much. We want to approach rostering players from these teams with caution.