FanDuel GPP Guide: Week 9

The Week 9 slate should be a fun one. There is no one single game that dominates the slate. In fact, when looking at the results of my sim runs, this is as flat as the optimal percentages for quarterbacks have been in any week. No quarterback lands in 10% or more of the optimals, and that flat structure carries over to the pass catchers as well. Unlike many weeks, you can find great plays at low projected percent rostered and get there without feeling like you are passing up good chalk in spots that can’t miss.

Fortunately, most of the injury news is settled heading into the weekend, and the biggest story is in San Francisco. Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel Sr. and Christian Kirk are all out against the Raiders, which leaves George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey as the clear top two targets in the passing game. McCaffrey practiced on Friday and has no injury designation, so the hamstring is not a concern. In Seattle, Sam Darnold is out, and Drew Lock will make his third start of the season after a limited Friday with an elbow injury, with Rashid Shaheed also out. In New England, TreVeyon Henderson is out again with an illness, and A.J. Brown will miss a second straight game, which pushes Rhamondre Stevenson back into a clear lead role. 

Cam Skattebo is doubtful after missing every practice this week, and Devin Singletary is expected to lead the Giants' backfield. Washington is down to three healthy receivers with Terry McLaurin out for the season, and Treylon Burks and Dyami Brown ruled out this week. The biggest injury news to watch is Hunter Henry, who is truly questionable in a spot where the Patriots are already down multiple key pass catchers. I’m also hoping to get more information about usage expectations for Amon-Ra St. Brown and George Pickens. Both should play, but it is hard to tell how much we should temper expectations there.

My fantasy point projections are built on a simulation of every game on the slate run ten thousand times. The simulation also solves the best possible FanDuel lineup in each of those ten thousand worlds, and how often a player lands in that best lineup is his optimal percentage, which is the best single number I have for how much tournament upside a player offers at his salary. At each position, I will go through the players expected to be the most popular (the chalk), with the ones I want to go heavy on marked as good chalk, and then a few other targets I like this week.

Slate Overview

The table below gives a big-picture view of the slate. It shows each team's implied total, how that compares to my season projection for the offense, how often that team's players show up in the optimal lineups across the ten thousand simulations, and how popular those players are projected to be.

This week's main slate has 11 games, and two of them are tied for the top total at 51.5 points: Las Vegas at San Francisco and Dallas at Indianapolis. San Francisco has the highest implied total on the slate at 30.75 points. The field is going to be heaviest on San Francisco, Kansas City, and Detroit, with all three showing up on more rosters than in the optimal lineups. Dallas, Seattle and Carolina are the offenses the simulation likes more than the field does.

San Francisco 49ers, 30.75, vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 20.75

San Francisco is a 10-point home favorite with the highest implied total on the slate, and with Evans, Samuel, and Kirk all out, the wide receiver position is a bit of a mess (though Demarcus Robinson should return), which means the tight ends and running backs should carry an even heavier load in the passing game. Kittle and McCaffrey are both good chalk, and Brock Purdy will be one of the most popular quarterbacks. Las Vegas has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, the seventh-most to running backs and the fourth-most to tight ends, so the matchup is as good as the implied total suggests. Plus, one of my favorite stats of the week is that each of the Raiders' last six games has totaled at least 56 points, with a defense that is a mess and an offense that has been frisky. On the Las Vegas side, Brock Bowers is the one Raider I want, since the backfield looks like it could be a committee again.

Dallas Cowboys, 28.0, at Indianapolis Colts, 23.5

The other 51.5-point game should be closer, with Dallas a 4.5-point road favorite. Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Javonte Williams are all good chalk this week, and Cowboys players fill about 63 percent of the optimal lineups. Indianapolis has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs, which sets up well for Williams, but the Colts have been tougher on receivers. This is one of the more fascinating games on the slate because it's a great matchup for the Colts' offense (Dallas has allowed the third-most fantasy points to both quarterbacks and running backs), and Indianapolis' implied total has not dropped as much as I would have expected with trade rumors swirling around Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor. The Colts' 23.5 implied total is 12 percent above my season number for them, so this is a reasonable game to bring a Colt back into a Dallas stack.

Detroit Lions, 28.0, at Miami Dolphins, 21.5

Detroit will be one of the three most popular offenses on the slate, and Lions players fill 67 percent of the optimal lineups, the most of any team. The problem is that the field is going to be even heavier on Detroit than the simulation is. Jahmyr Gibbs is projected to be the most popular player on the slate, and Jared Goff will be one of the most popular quarterbacks even though he lands in only about 5 percent of the optimal lineups. Sam LaPorta is the Lion I like most relative to his popularity, as Miami has allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends. On the Miami side, Malik Willis gets the best quarterback matchup on the slate against a Detroit defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to the position. That said, Devin Knotts made a great point on the Footballguys DFS Show this week that the Lions' pass defense is not as bad as the early-season numbers suggest, since the team is now healthy at safety.

Kansas City Chiefs, 29.0, vs. New York Jets, 19.5

Kansas City is a 9.5-point home favorite, and the Chiefs' 29-point implied total is 13 percent above my season number for them. Ken Walker III will be one of the most popular backs, and Patrick Mahomes II lands in the most optimal lineups of any quarterback while also being the most popular quarterback on the slate. Rashee Rice, who has a big red-zone role in a high-scoring offense, is good chalk at receiver. There are some affordable and relatively attractive Jets bring-back options, since Garrett Wilson is out with a concussion.

New England Patriots, 23.75, vs. Green Bay Packers, 20.75

With Henderson and Brown both out, the Patriots' offense runs through Drake Maye, Stevenson, DeMario Douglas, and Henry (if healthy), and Maye and Stevenson are both on my lists below. Green Bay has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs but the fifth-fewest to quarterbacks. On the Green Bay side, the Patriots have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to receivers. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden both cost more than $1,000 more than they did in Week 1, so they are not the values they were early in the season, but don't forget about them this week, as Watson is still one of the receivers I want to go heavy on.

Seattle Seahawks, 24.0, vs. Arizona Cardinals, 15.5

This game has one of the lowest totals on the slate at 39.5 points, and Seattle is an 8.5-point favorite with Lock under center. That is part of why the field is lighter on Jaxon Smith-Njigba than it should be, as he lands in the most optimal lineups of any receiver. Arizona has allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and Lock threw for 235 yards and three touchdowns against the Cardinals back in Week 2, all three to Smith-Njigba, who caught nine passes for 155 yards that day. On the Arizona side, the Cardinals' 15.5 implied total is the lowest on the slate, and I would mostly stay away, though Trey McBride's volume makes him an interesting contrarian tight end.

Quarterbacks

Mahomes is projected to be the most popular quarterback on the slate. He lands in 9.6 percent of the optimal lineups, the most of any quarterback, but the field is going to be heavier on him than my sim is, so I would be a little under the field. Goff is my biggest fade at the position. Miami has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, so I understand the appeal, but my projection has Gibbs at more than 22 carries and a touchdown, and Goff offers almost nothing as a runner. The passing projection is too low to feel good about him hitting the high-end outcomes you need to win a tournament very often. He lands in only about 5 percent of the optimal lineups, and Willis, on the other side of the same game, lands in more optimal lineups at $1,200 less. Rushing upside matters. Purdy lands in 9.4 percent of the optimal lineups, right in line with how popular he is expected to be, and his last four games came in between 14 and 20 FanDuel points, so with so many touches going to Kittle and McCaffrey, I am fine being right at the field on him. Prescott, Maye, and Willis are the three chalk quarterbacks I want to go heavy on.

Dak Prescott, Cowboys, $8,000

Prescott lands in 8.6 percent of the optimal lineups, the third-most of any quarterback, and he should be less popular than Goff, Purdy, or Mahomes. He has 2,046 passing yards, 14 touchdowns and five interceptions through eight games, and he has topped 19 FanDuel points in each of his last two (three touchdown passes against Philadelphia and a rushing touchdown against Arizona). My projection has him at about 37 pass attempts, 279 yards, and nearly two touchdowns, one of the highest pass-attempt projections on the slate, in a game with a 51.5 total. Indianapolis has allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, so the matchup is neutral, but the volume and game environment are what make Prescott a strong tournament play. Lamb is his most common partner in the optimal lineups, followed by Pickens and Ryan Flournoy.

Drake Maye, Patriots, $8,200

Maye has scored at least 22.5 FanDuel points in each of his last four games, including 39.5 against Las Vegas in Week 5. He has 1,983 passing yards and 15 touchdowns through eight games, and he has added 216 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Green Bay has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, so this is not a great matchup on paper, but my projection has him at nearly seven carries for 31 yards on top of about 241 passing yards and 1.6 touchdowns, and the rushing gives him a floor that most quarterbacks in his price range do not have. Stevenson, Douglas and Henry are his most common partners in the optimal lineups, and with Brown out, the targets should be condensed among those three.

Malik Willis, Dolphins, $6,500

Willis is the cheapest of the chalk quarterbacks, and he gets the best matchup on the slate. Detroit has allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and Miami's 21.5 implied total is 21 percent above my season number for the Dolphins, the biggest jump on the slate. As a 6.5-point underdog, Miami should be throwing more than usual, and my projection has Willis at about 32 pass attempts for 223 yards plus six carries for 30 yards. He has 225 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground in seven games, and he scored 26.0 FanDuel points against the Jets two weeks ago. Malik Washington and Caleb Douglas are his most common partners in the optimal lineups, and Gibbs is the most common bring-back, which makes a Willis and Gibbs pairing a nice way to get exposure to this game.

Quarterbacks: Other Targets

Jayden Daniels, Commanders, $8,400