FanDuel GPP Guide: Week 8

There aren't too many moving pieces when it comes to late-breaking injury news this week. The one big question left is in New England. A.J. Brown did not practice all week with knee and ankle injuries and is listed as questionable, and I am projecting him to sit. TreVeyon Henderson is also questionable after missing Thursday and Friday with an illness, and I have him out as well. With both of them out, Rhamondre Stevenson moves to about 17 carries and five targets, and DeMario Douglas and Hunter Henry pick up most of Brown's targets, which makes the Patriots one of the offenses I most want to build around. If either Brown or Henderson plays, the Patriots' pieces lose some value, but with a 4:25 PM ET kickoff, we will know before that game locks.

The rest of the news is mostly settled. Carnell Tate and Tyjae Spears are out for Tennessee, which leaves Tony Pollard projected for nearly 20 carries but in a game where the Titans are 12.5-point underdogs. Jakobi Meyers is questionable after missing Friday's practice, and I am projecting him out, which pushes Parker Washington's projection to nearly 10 targets. Emeka Egbuka is out again in Tampa Bay, and Brian Robinson Jr. is out for Atlanta. Jaylen Waddle is questionable for Denver after a limited week with a chest injury, and I have him active. Ja'Marr Chase, Jahmyr Gibbs, Brock Bowers, Rashee Rice, and Jeremiyah Love all came off the injury report or were declared ready to play.

My fantasy point projections are built on a simulation of every game on the slate run ten thousand times. The simulation also solves the best possible FanDuel lineup in each of those ten thousand worlds, and how often a player lands in that best lineup is his optimal percentage, which is the best single number I have for how much tournament upside a player offers at his salary. At each position, I will go through the players expected to be the most popular (the chalk), with the ones I want to go heavy on marked as good chalk, and then a few other targets I like this week.

Slate Overview

The table below gives a big-picture view of the slate. It shows each team's implied total, how that compares to my season projection for the offense, and how often that team's players show up in the optimal lineups across the ten thousand simulations.

This week's main slate has 11 games, and two of them stand out with 54.5 totals: Arizona at Dallas and Baltimore at Buffalo. Dallas has the highest implied total on the slate at 30.75 points, and the Jets, Cowboys, Cardinals, Jaguars, and Bengals all have implied totals at least 10 percent above my season numbers for them. Kansas City, Denver and Indianapolis are the furthest below, each about 14 percent under. Dallas, Cincinnati and Jacksonville players each fill about 70 percent of the optimal lineups, well ahead of every other offense, and New England, Detroit, Buffalo, Arizona and the Rams make up the next tier at 51 to 54 percent.

Dallas Cowboys, 30.75, vs. Arizona Cardinals, 23.75

This is projected to be the highest-scoring game on the slate, and both offenses have implied totals well above my season projections. These are two relatively fast-paced, pass-heavy offenses playing defenses we want to target in DFS. Cowboys players fill 71 percent of the optimal lineups, tied with Cincinnati for the most on the slate. Dallas has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to receivers, and the seventh-most to running backs, which is why Michael Wilson and Love are both on my target lists, and Trey McBride lands in the most optimal lineups of any tight end. On the Dallas side, Dak Prescott will be a popular play against an Arizona defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Cincinnati Bengals, 29.5, vs. Tennessee Titans, 17.0

Cincinnati is a 12.5-point favorite with the second-highest implied total on the slate, and Bengals players fill 71 percent of the optimal lineups. Chase lands in more optimal lineups than any receiver, Joe Burrow leads all quarterbacks, and Tee Higgins is good chalk as well. The one concern is the spread, since a blowout could mean a lot of running in the second half. That being said, this Bengals passing offense should put up good numbers regardless of game script. On the Tennessee side, Pollard has a big workload but a tough game script, and I would mostly stay away from the Titans.

Buffalo Bills, 28.75, vs. Baltimore Ravens, 25.75

The other 54.5-point game is a closer one, with Buffalo a 3-point home favorite. James Cook III and Josh Allen are both popular for good reason, and Cook is one of my good chalk running backs. Buffalo has allowed the most fantasy points to receivers this season, which bodes well for Zay Flowers, but at $8,000, he is the fifth-most expensive receiver on the slate. Derrick Henry has historically fared very well against the Bills (he has scored in all seven games he has played against them, playoffs included), but at $8,500, he is priced near the elite backs, which makes him much tougher to fit in here than on DraftKings.

Jacksonville Jaguars, 28.25, vs. Indianapolis Colts, 18.25

Jacksonville is coming off its bye as a 10-point home favorite, and Jaguars players fill about 70 percent of the optimal lineups. With Meyers projected out, Washington is the clear top target in this passing game, and he lands in the second-most optimal lineups of any receiver. Trevor Lawrence, Brenton Strange, and Bhayshul Tuten are all on my lists below, and the Jaguars defense is one of my favorite plays at the position. Indianapolis has an 18.25 implied total, about 14 percent below my season number for the Colts, and I would mostly avoid that side of the game. With trade rumors swirling around Jonathan Taylor, Seth McGowan is an interesting dart throw if you are playing a bunch of lineups.

New England Patriots, 25.25, at Miami Dolphins, 18.25

With Brown and Henderson both projected out, the Patriots' offense runs through Stevenson, Douglas, and Henry, and Patriots players fill 54 percent of the optimal lineups. Miami has allowed the third-most fantasy points to both running backs and tight ends, so Stevenson and Henry are in great spots, and Drake Maye is a strong tournament play as well. Douglas is more about the role than the matchup, since Miami has been much tougher on receivers.

Detroit Lions, 24.75, vs. Minnesota Vikings, 21.75

Detroit will always be one of the most popular offenses on any slate, but this is a tough spot. Minnesota has allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and running backs and the fourth-fewest to receivers, and Detroit's implied total is about two points below what I project for this offense moving forward. Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown are the two Lions I would be lightest on. Gibbs is still the most optimal running back on the slate, so I want exposure to him, but I would be a little under the field. The Lions defense is good chalk against a Vikings offense with a 21.75 implied total.

Quarterbacks

Prescott is projected to be the most popular quarterback on the slate. Arizona has allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, so I understand the appeal. The concern here would be Javonte Williams getting a touchdown or two on the ground, and you probably need three or four touchdowns from Prescott to have a chance in GPPs. Goff is the clearest fade of the week against a Minnesota defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, and he lands in fewer than 2 percent of the optimal lineups. Allen is a fine play in a 54.5-point game. We've seen him hit his ceiling in some of these projected shootouts in the past. Burrow and Lawrence are the two chalk quarterbacks I want to go heavy on, however, as the cap savings from Allen opens up a path to higher-end options at wide receiver.

Joe Burrow, Bengals, $8,300

Burrow lands in 13.6 percent of the optimal lineups, the most of any quarterback on the slate. He has 15 touchdown passes through six games, including four in each of his last two games against Miami and Baltimore. My projection has him at about 35 pass attempts, 294 yards and more than two touchdowns, and Cincinnati has a 29.5 implied total as a 12.5-point home favorite. The big spread is the one concern, since a blowout could mean a lot of running late. Chase and Higgins are his most common partners in the optimal lineups, but my sims don't love the double stack, as only about 4 percent of his optimal lineups include both. I think you pick one or the other to pair with Burrow.

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars, $7,700

Lawrence has 14 touchdown passes against four interceptions through six games, and his last game before the bye was his best of the season (306 yards and four touchdowns against Houston). My projection has him at about 33 pass attempts, 272 yards, and nearly two touchdowns against an Indianapolis defense that has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and Jacksonville has the fourth-highest implied total on the slate. Washington is his most common partner in the optimal lineups, followed by Strange, and that three-man Jaguars stack is one of my favorite builds this week. I'm also keeping Travis Hunter in my player pool for the first time this season if Jakobi Meyers is ruled out.

Quarterbacks: Other Targets

Drake Maye, Patriots, $8,200

Maye is the quarterback I want in my Patriots stacks. He has scored at least 23.8 FanDuel points in each of his last three games, including 39.5 against Las Vegas in Week 5, and he has added 211 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Miami has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and my projection has him at about 239 passing yards and nearly two touchdowns, plus about seven carries for 34 yards. The rushing is what gives Maye a high floor even without Brown (who I am assuming will be out). Douglas, Henry, and Stevenson are his most common partners in the optimal lineups, and a Maye stack with one or two of them is a good way to build around the Patriots. The stacking options are cheap, and with a good chance the Patriots have only three wide receivers active this week, the targets should be condensed.

Geno Smith, Jets, $7,000

Smith is one of the cheaper paths into a game environment I like. The Jets have a 23.5 implied total, 17 percent above my season number for them and the biggest jump on the slate, and Las Vegas has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Smith is coming off one of his best fantasy games of the season (287 yards and three touchdowns against Miami), and my projection has him at about 31 pass attempts, 242 yards, and nearly two touchdowns. At $7,000, he makes it easy to fit two expensive running backs, and Garrett Wilson is his most common partner in the optimal lineups. The squeaky-wheel narrative has to bear fruit for Wilson at some point.

Running Backs