Dynasty Trade Value Chart: November

When I first started writing this article every month more than a decade ago, it felt like I had to save up takes for the entire month between articles, and I was always overflowing with thoughts I wanted to share by the time the next one came around. One of the biggest improvements to my dynasty coverage since then, however, has been DTVC Plus, which gives me an outlet to change individual player values more quickly and explain each move in real time. Since the October article, I have made 245 player value updates, each with a sentence or two in the change log explaining the reasoning behind the move.

With the change log already covering the week-to-week moves, I want to spend a bit less time this month on the most recent movers from Week 8 and instead zoom out slightly to answer four questions:

• Who were the biggest value movers in October?

• At the midway point of the season, which quarterbacks are inside my Superflex circle of trust, and which ones sit just outside it with the clearest path in?

• The trade values for veteran running backs in my trade database feel a bit high to me. Do the rest-of-season projections justify those prices?

• Similarly, do the rest-of-season projections at wide receiver and tight end justify the values of the top players at each position?

We will go position by position, answering each of those questions and covering the biggest movers at each spot. But before that, let's take a look at the 2027 rookie picks and how we are valuing them.

2027 Rookie Picks

Mike Kashuba has been updating his 2027 prospect rankings throughout the college season, and the 2027 pick values in DTVC Plus now come straight from his board. So, for example, if you see a value for an early 2027 1st-round pick, that pick value is worth the average value of the prospects expected to be available in that range of the draft, so when Mike moves a prospect up or down, the pick values move with him. They also adjust to your league size and settings like everything else in the tool, and you can read Mike's notes on each prospect on the 2027 board. 

Measuring Value With PPGAR

As longtime readers know, my dynasty values are based on the idea of points per game above replacement (PPGAR). This is an especially useful frame of reference at this point in the season, so it will be the main focus of this month's article. I am doing rest-of-season projections for Footballguys this year (which I update every Tuesday morning), and from those, it is easy to figure out PPGAR for the remainder of the 2026 NFL season in any format.

For this article, I chose the format that my research shows is currently the most popular in the dynasty community: a 12-team Superflex league with tight end premium (1.5 points per reception for tight ends, full PPR for everyone else, and four points per passing touchdown) that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, two flex spots, and a superflex spot.

Replacement level is set half a point per game below the last projected starter at each position once the flex and superflex spots are filled, which works out to 15.5 points per game at quarterback, 10.7 at running back, 10.1 at wide receiver, and 10.0 at tight end. Keep in mind that PPGAR is measured per game, so for an injured player like Lamar Jackson, it is not a perfect stand-in for his current-season value. But overall, it is the best metric for judging how much each player will help you compete for a fantasy championship this season.

The tables at each position below show my current Superflex value for the top players next to their PPGAR, which is listed as 2026 Value. Players at or below replacement level show as zero, as do players who are out for the season.

Quarterbacks

Here are the top 30 quarterbacks in my Superflex values, along with their PPGAR based on my latest rest-of-season projections:

Value Movers

Brock Purdy, SF (Superflex): 28 -> 35 (+7.0). Purdy was the QB1 through five weeks and ranks third at the position in my rest-of-season projections. He has now been a top-tier producer for multiple seasons and is still only 26. 

Caleb Williams, CHI (Superflex): 35 -> 41 (+6.0). Williams is back from the hamstring injury and ranks fourth at the position in my rest-of-season projections. With Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland both emerging, and with good reason for confidence in Ben Johnson's offense overall, his long-term outlook is extremely positive.

Drake Maye, NE (Superflex): 39.6 -> 45 (+5.4). Maye looks to be past the rough patch that dragged his value down in September, averaging 24.9 points over his last three games. He is 24, and the Patriots' offense should only get better once A.J. Brown is back (if he can ever regain his peak form). Even so, it is notable that Maye continues to win games and put up big numbers with a lackluster supporting cast. He has a floor that is not dependent on the surrounding talent and an unknown ceiling if the Patriots ever figure out how to draft and develop wide receivers.

Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Superflex): 29 -> 33 (+4.0). Lawrence has thrown 17 touchdowns in seven games and has been a slow and steady riser all season. What is most impressive about his solid production so far is that game script (a number of blowouts) has actually held him back a bit. 

Lamar Jackson, BAL (Superflex): 40.5 -> 30 (-10.5). An ankle injury cost him two games, and then he hurt his right thumb on his first pass back in Week 8, had surgery, and went on injured reserve with what the Ravens called a potentially season-ending injury. He turns 30 in January and should be healthy for 2027, but this continues a trend, and his long-term future in Baltimore is much more of a question than it was a month ago. That being said, changing teams would not necessarily hurt his value, since the real concern is his health.

Jalen Hurts, PHI (Superflex): 30 -> 18.5 (-11.5). Hurts is out for the season with blood clots in his lungs, and his future in Philadelphia is cloudy. Even if he remains the starting quarterback in Philadelphia, the Eagles' long-term outlook on offense is very much up in the air, and the league-best offensive line he played behind early in his career is a major question mark in 2027 and beyond.

The Circle of Trust

In Superflex, short-term PPGAR is only a small part of the equation. The bigger part is a quarterback's long-term viability as an NFL starter. As someone who plays in a lot of devy leagues, one way I often think about this is by asking myself how confident I am that my two current starters will still be starting for somebody three years from now. If my confidence level is low, I need to start taking some swings on college quarterbacks. If I feel great about the longevity of my current quarterbacks, I can instead focus on high-upside skill-position players.

The quarterbacks I am confident will still be starting three years from now make up what I think of as my circle of trust. It is not a ranking, and there is a wide range of value inside the group, since Josh Allen and Jared Goff both look like great bets to keep starting over the medium term, but with very different PPGAR because of Allen's rushing upside. The main idea is that, in an ideal world, you have at least two quarterbacks inside the circle of trust that you can lean on as long-term starters.

Right now, 17 quarterbacks are inside my circle of trust: Josh Allen, Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes II, Brock Purdy, Trevor Lawrence, Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Tyler Shough, Jordan Love, Dak Prescott, Jaxson Dart, Bryce Young, Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, and C.J. Stroud.

Four of those 17 are in the circle with less confidence than the rest:

• Tyler Shough has been one of the best surprises of the season, averaging 18.8 fantasy points per game, but he was a second-round pick, and at 27, he is older than most second-year quarterbacks. A late-blooming second-rounder has a shorter leash than a first-round pick, and his last three games (14.5 points per game) were a reminder that he still has more to prove. For now, though, he is inside the circle of trust, and I’m excited to see what he can do with Jordyn Tyson set to make his debut.
• Bryce Young ranked third at the position through four weeks and looked headed for a big extension. He has averaged 12.9 points over his last three games, though, and until Carolina commits to him long term, I can't quite put him alongside the more established names. He is still inside the circle because he does not look to be at serious risk of being replaced any time soon, but my confidence has wavered slightly in recent weeks.
• Justin Herbert has the resume and the contract of a long-term starter, but this has been the worst season of his career. He is averaging 11.5 fantasy points per game with five touchdowns and 10 interceptions; the Chargers are 0-7; and seasons like this one usually lead to big changes. I still expect him to be starting in three years, though I am a lot less sure than I was a couple of months ago. Still, when there is speculation that he would cost three or four first-round picks if he were ever traded, it is clear he has a lot of believers around the NFL.
• C.J. Stroud is playing well again, with 11 touchdowns against one interception, and the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. gives him another weapon. After a couple of seasons where he failed to build on his rookie year, though, he needs to finish this one strong and land an extension before I would call him a lock. But I do feel confident there are not 32 better quarterbacks in the world. 

Just Outside the Circle

Six more quarterbacks sit just outside the circle but have a real path into it, and I wouldn’t fault anyone who sees it differently and has these quarterbacks inside their circle.

• Fernando Mendoza was the first overall pick in April, and that draft capital all but guarantees him a long runway once he gets on the field. The only thing keeping him out of the circle is that he has not played meaningful snaps yet. Kirk Cousins is averaging 20.3 points per game, so the Raiders have no reason to rush him, and there is a real chance Mendoza sits for most of his rookie season. 
• Jalen Hurts would be an easy call if this were only about his track record. Between the blood clots, the offensive line concerns I mentioned above, and a contract that could become an albatross, his future in Philadelphia is cloudier than it has been at any point since he took over. Plus, I’m not fully convinced his game would fit everywhere if the Eagles do decide to move on.
• Bo Nix is averaging 14.0 points per game, and the Denver passing offense has taken a step back this season. He is still only 26, continues to perform well in the clutch, and the Broncos are sitting at 6-2.
• Baker Mayfield turns 32 in April but landed a long-term extension just before the season kicked off. The big-money extension gives him some security for the next couple of years, but he’s going to need to play better than he has so far this season to justify his massive 2029 base salary.
• Michael Penix Jr. has made the Falcons' offense look much better since returning to the lineup, but there is still too much inconsistency. Between his injury history and the fact that he has not yet put together a full, healthy season, he is not in the circle yet, but he is trending in the right direction.
• Cam Ward has been the most disappointing young quarterback of the season, averaging 12.4 points per game with six touchdowns and five interceptions. He was the first overall pick in 2025, so Tennessee will give him time, but another season like this one could have the Titans looking at other options. On the bright side, he has made some progress over the last few weeks.

Running Backs