DFS First Look: Week 9

DFS First Look is back for Week 9. As always, every projection in this article is my own, and they come from simulating every game on the slate 10,000 times. The optimal column in each table shows how often a player landed in the best possible lineup under the salary cap across those sims. For GPPs, comparing those optimal percentages to our percent rostered projections (Devin Knotts puts those together later in the week) is one of the best ways to find the guys who are overvalued or undervalued.

The downside of writing this on a Wednesday morning is that I have to do a lot of guessing on injuries. Any news that comes out after this goes live will change my projections (I update them daily on Footballguys), and that can shuffle the top plays for both cash and GPP. I still love getting started this early, though, and trying to suss out the top plays before a consensus forms. Making these injury calls and adjusting as the news comes in is a big part of building winning DFS lineups anyway.

Each week I’ll start with a quick list of the key questionable players and whether I have them in or out. These guys are below 50 percent to play in my projections, so they’re out of the sims for now:

• Travis Etienne Jr., Saints (hamstring)
• DeVonta Smith, Eagles (hamstring)
• Rashid Shaheed, Seahawks (knee)
• Terrance Ferguson, Rams (ankle)

And these guys are at 50 percent or better, so they’re in for now, but any of them could flip with this week’s practice reports:

• Christian McCaffrey, 49ers (hamstring)
• Mike Evans, 49ers (Achilles), in at a reduced workload
• Deebo Samuel Sr., 49ers (hamstring), in at a reduced workload in his first game back
• Breece Hall, Jets (quad), in at a reduced workload in his first game back
• Hunter Henry, Patriots (foot)
• David Montgomery, Texans (groin), in at a reduced workload
• Cam Skattebo, Giants (hamstring), in at a reduced workload
• Jake Ferguson, Cowboys (ankle), in at a reduced workload
• Jordyn Tyson, Saints (hamstring), in at a reduced workload, assuming he comes off injured reserve

Three of these really matter for cash games. The first is the 49ers receivers. San Francisco has the top implied total on the slate, and I have both Evans and Samuel playing, but the New York Post reported that the 49ers could be without Evans again, and Samuel’s status likely won’t be decided until later in the week. If either one sits, George Kittle gets the biggest boost. He projects for 17.4 DraftKings points with both receivers playing, 20.3 with Evans out, and 19.2 with Samuel out.

Hunter Henry is the second. He hurt his foot last week, and I have him right at 50 percent for now. If he sits, Efton Chism III and DeMario Douglas each gain about two DraftKings points, and Chism is already in all ten of the top DraftKings cash lineups at $3,600.

The third is Breece Hall. He’s expected back from the quad injury that cost him the last five games, and Aaron Glenn said this week that Hall won’t be traded, which sets up a split with Braelon Allen (Allen has 504 rushing yards over his last five games). I have Hall at a reduced workload in his first game back, and that drops Allen, who is a little banged up himself, to 8.4 DraftKings points, about half of what he projected with Hall out.

Slate Overview

The slate overview is built around implied team totals and how each one compares to that team's average implied total for the full season (based on my estimated lines for future weeks), plus my Matchup Rating for each position, which is my best guess at how much this week's opponent will help or hurt that position. A rating of +10% means players at that position should score about 10 percent more than usual. It blends this season's games with last season's and the betting lines, and it trusts this season's results a little more each week. The DST column rates the offense each defense is facing.

The main slate is 11 games, with Pittsburgh and Tennessee on bye and Atlanta and Cincinnati playing Sunday morning in Madrid. Seven of the 11 main-slate games kick off at 1:00, with Las Vegas at San Francisco and Houston at the Chargers at 4:05, and both Arizona at Seattle and Green Bay at New England at 4:25.

San Francisco has the top implied total on the slate at 31.25 as a 10-point home favorite over Las Vegas, and the 52.5 total is the highest of the week. The 49ers are coming off their bye, and my Matchup Rating likes every San Francisco skill position, with the running backs second-best on the slate. That puts Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle near the top of my list this week. Over the last six weeks, every Raiders game has gone over the Vegas total, with at least 56 combined points in each one. Over that stretch, their opponents have averaged 33.8 PPG. While the Raiders defense has cratered after a strong start in the first two weeks, the offense has been fine, averaging 28.0 PPG over their last six. Brock Bowers has the highest projection of any tight end on the slate and makes for a strong bring-back option for 49ers stacks.

Dallas at Indianapolis has the second-highest total at 51.5, with Dallas (28.75) a 6-point road favorite. All of the key Dallas offensive pieces are in play. We saw the Colts defense get run over by the Jaguars last week, and the team seems to have given up on the season. The Colts offensive side is also interesting, because my Matchup Rating has the Indianapolis quarterback and running backs with the best matchups on the slate and the receivers second-best. I’m not sure I trust anyone in this offense, and both Jonathan Taylor and Josh Downs are involved in trade rumors, which further complicates matters. But it’s still a spot to keep an eye on throughout the week. Seth McGowan is potentially interesting if Taylor gets moved this week.

Detroit (28.75) is a 7-point road favorite in Miami, and Jahmyr Gibbs has the highest projection of any player on the slate again. The Lions running backs and tight ends both have good matchups, and the Detroit defense has one of the best defensive matchups of the week. Miami is also interesting. The Dolphins’ 21.75 implied total is 19 percent above their season average, and my Matchup Rating has the Miami receivers with the best matchup on the slate and the quarterback second-best, which is why Malik Willis and Malik Washington show up all over the cash lineups. Plus, this Dolphins offense has been trending in the right direction over the last few weeks.

Kansas City (28.5) is a 9.5-point home favorite over the Jets, and Ken Walker III is the top running back on DraftKings in the sims. Rashee Rice is an interesting tournament play.

Seattle (27.0) is a 12.5-point home favorite over Arizona, the biggest spread on the slate, and Arizona’s 14.5 implied total is the lowest on the slate by a wide margin. With Gardner Minshew II expected to start and Jeremiyah Love on injured reserve, every Arizona skill position has the worst matchup on the slate. Going the other way, the Seattle quarterback has the third-best matchup, the tight ends have the best, and the Seahawks defense has the highest projection at the position. That being said, it’s hard to trust anyone on this Seahawks offense outside of Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

The Rams (26.5) are 5.5-point road favorites in Washington, and Puka Nacua lands in more optimal lineups than any other player on the slate this week. The Rams quarterback and tight ends also have top-four matchups on the slate, though it’s impossible to know which Rams tight end to bet on in any given week.

DraftKings

Quarterbacks

Brock Purdy at $6,800 is the top tournament quarterback on DraftKings at 10.7 percent of optimal lineups and my early favorite for cash games. He has the highest projection at the position at 24.3 points and a solid sub-$7K price tag. San Francisco has the top implied total on the slate coming out of its bye, and Purdy has thrown 15 touchdowns in seven games. The one thing that might give me some slight hesitancy on Purdy would be if Evans and/or Samuel are ruled out.

Malik Willis at $5,100 (8.0 percent) has the best points-per-dollar projection at the position. Miami’s implied total is 19 percent above its season average, and Willis gives you a rushing floor at a low price (225 rushing yards and three touchdowns in seven games). The Lions defense isn’t great when fully healthy and is beat up coming out of the Vikings game.

Patrick Mahomes II at $6,100 (8.4 percent) has the third-best points-per-dollar projection at the position at home against the Jets, and his weapons are fairly priced. He’s a nice tournament option after throwing for 321 yards and three touchdowns last week in Denver.

Running Backs