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Footballguys Nation! My name is Adam Hutchison. I am a full-time physical therapist and fantasy football lover. I am beyond excited to be here, and I have one job: to help you become the best fantasy football manager you can be. My specialty is injuries. Rehabbing people is what I do all day, every day. Unfortunately, I cannot rehabilitate your favorite fantasy player, but what I can do is help you navigate the waters should they get hurt. I was able to crunch the numbers, and I am stoked to roll out the Footballguys Injury Report.
We all agree - injuries suck. However, how you prepare for them and adjust can save your fantasy football season.
Before you read any further, to avoid any confusion, it is important to lay some ground rules. I am not saying that this is exactly what will happen. I do not have a crystal ball, nor should this report be used as one. Like most things in life, context is important. Every injury is unique. The numbers below are averages of NFL players between 2017 and 2022 (6-year sample). The Footballguys Injury Report contains injury timelines and fantasy performance specifically for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. Altogether, there are over 1,500 injuries that are included in this data set.
Questionable vs. Doubtful
Per the NFL rules, when a player is listed as Questionable (Q), there is uncertainty if that player will play that week, while the Doubtful (D) tag means it is unlikely a player will be available. In short, questionable should mean that a player is truly 50/50 that week, and doubtful implies the chances are slim.
Obviously, teams are not always forthcoming when listing players as questionable or doubtful. Some teams are a little more liberal with these labels. However, I wanted to look at the percentages a player played each week when they were listed as either Questionable or Doubtful on the last injury report of the week. In most cases, being labeled with either at the end of the week should be a true indication of an injury.
Questionable Tag
- 71.5% of players played
- 28.5% of players did not play
Doubtful Tag
- 95.1% of players did not play
- 4.9% of players played
Team Tendencies
For whatever reason, there are some teams whose players are less or more likely to play when listed as Questionable. Here are the top three teams in each category. Granted, these samples are a bit small because I am only looking at quarterbacks and skill position players, but nevertheless, these are the trends.
| Team | Percent of Questionable Players Who Play |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 79.2 |
| Houston Texans | 49.0 |
| New York Jets | 43.5 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11.1 |
| Chicago Bears | 10.5 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 10.4 |
Because I am a curious soul, I wanted to see what team was most likely to have a play actually play even when they are listed as Doubtful. If you remember from above >95% of the time, a player listed as Doubtful did not play. The answer was Tampa Bay again with 40%, but the sample was incredibly small (5). Maybe that can help you during trivia someday.
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Positional Volatility
You have likely heard that running backs are more susceptible to injury and that wide receivers are safer picks. It’s one of the foundational pieces of the Zero RB strategy. It would appear there is some truth to that theory. Here are graphs showing the range of outcomes for QB, RB, WR, and TE to play a full season game merely based on historical comps for fantasy-relevant players, not taking ADP or injury history into consideration. Below these graphs is the probability that each position plays a full season and at least 12 games
| Quarterbacks | Running Backs |
| QB odds to play 17 games: 34.5% | RB odds to play 17 games: 10.3% |
| QB odds to play at least 12 games: 94.6% | RB odds to play at least 12 games: 72.9% |
| Wide Receivers | Tight Ends |
| WR odds to play 17 games: 18.4% | TE odds to play 17 games: 8.4% |
| WR odds to play at least 12 games: 84.5% | TE odds to play at least 12 games: 67.7% |
Fantasy Performance by Position
This is the meat and potatoes of the Footballguys Injury Report. I wanted to dig a little bit deeper and see how different injuries affected a player's fantasy production. For example, high ankle sprains are notoriously bad for running backs, but are all injuries this devastating?
Additionally, I wanted to analyze how different positions might be affected by specific injuries. While a shoulder injury might be minor for a wide receiver, it's likely to negatively impact quarterbacks' production. Before we take a look, here is some background information on the data.
These are the key terms to consider when looking over the tables below:
Re-Injury Rate is the instance where a player sustained an injury, returned from the injury, and later missed time again due to the same injury.
Fantasy production (Fantasy Prod.) was based on how a player performed the first week following the injury compared to their Healthy Average (Fantasy points per game when not injured). It includes instances where a player did or did not miss time.
To gauge how more serious injuries affected performance, an additional section was included that just examined fantasy production when the player missed at least one week with injury: Fantasy Prod. 1WM.
Where appropriate and when the sample size was sufficient, a three-game average post-injury to account for lingering issues. This average is under the header: Fantasy Prod. 3W Avg.
When the sample was not large enough to portray an accurate picture, "NA" was set as a placeholder.
QUARTERBACKS
| Injury | Avg Weeks Missed | Perc of Players who missed 0 Weeks | Perc of Players who missed 1-2 Weeks | Perc of Players who missed 5+ Weeks | Re-injury Rate | Fantasy Prod. | Fantasy Prod. 1WM | Fantasy Prod. 3WM | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foot Injury | 4.1 | 17.6 | 29.4 | 32.4 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 6.5 | -1.9 | 34 |
| Inversion Ankle Sprain | 2.7 | NA | NA | NA | 0.0 | 17.5 | 6.2 | NA | 10 |
| Knee Injury | 3.8 | 5.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 5.0 | 21.5 | 20.3 | 3.5 | 20 |
| Hamstring Strain | 2.3 | NA | NA | NA | 14.3 | -17.6 | -15.6 | -9.1 | 10 |
| Rib Injury | 2.2 | NA | NA | NA | 0.0 | 33.8 | NA | NA | 10 |
| Shoulder Injury | 3.2 | 9.5 | 47.6 | 33.3 | 14.3 | -8.3 | -8.9 | -4.0 | 21 |
| AC Joint Sprain | 2.5 | NA | NA | NA | 18.2 | -12.2 | -14.2 | -2.8 | 11 |
| Hand/Thumb Injury | 3.6 | 17.6 | 35.2 | 35.2 | 0.0 | -19.8 | -23.1 | -4.9 | 17 |
| Concussion | 1.9 | 22. | 55.5 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 0.5 | 8.0 | 17.1 | 18 |
RUNNING BACKS
| Injury | Avg Weeks Missed | Perc of Players who missed 0 Weeks | Perc of Players who missed 1-2 Weeks | Perc of Players who missed 5+ Weeks | Re-injury Rate | Fantasy Prod. | Fantasy Prod. 1WM | Fantasy Prod. 3WM | Sample Size | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foot Injury | 2.8 | 32.1 | 28.5 | 17.9 | 3.5 | -13.7 | -11.2 | -0.2 | 28 | |
| Turf Toe | 2.1 | NA | NA | NA | 0.0 | -3.8 | -12.6 | NA | 11 | |
| Inversion Ankle Sprain | 1.8 | 38.6 | 31.8 | 6.8 | 14.9 | -13.0 | -20.7 | -16.5 | 44 | |
| High Ankle Sprain | 3.5 | 11.4 | 25.7 | 20.0 | 5.7 | -18.4 | -18.9 | -20.9 | 35 | |
| Calf Strain | 2.6 | NA | NA | NA | 7.1 | -26.4 | -47.8 | -45.0 | 14 | |
| Knee Injury | 3.7 | 29.3 | 27.2 | 25.2 | 9.1 | -21.2 | -22 | -12.2 | 99 | |
| MCL Sprain | 3.8 | NA | NA | NA | 9.1 | -10.0 | -10.0 | -13.0 | 22 | |
| Hamstring Strain | 2.8 | 15.8 | 34.3 | 18.4 | 10.5 | -24.9 | -22.3 | -5.5 | 38 | |
| Quadriceps Strain | 1.8 | 25.0 | 55.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | -25.4 | -30.3 | -8.2 | 20 | |
| Hip Injury | 1.7 | 50.0 | 38.4 | 11.5 | 7.7 | -22.0 | 26.0 | -15.2 | 26 | |
| Groin Strain | 1.7 | NA | NA | NA | 0.0 | -18.4 | NA | NA | 10 | |
| Rib Injury | 2.1 | NA | NA | NA | 15.8 | -20.5 | -33.1 | 3.3 | 19 | |
| Shoulder Injury | 1.6 | 39.4 | 30.3 | 9.1 | 9.1 | -18.1 | -13.1 | -21.8 | 33 | |
| AC joint Sprain | 2.9 | NA | NA | NA | 20.0 | NA | NA | NA | 10 | |
| Concussion | 1.8 | 25.0 | 50.0 | 7.1 | 0.0 | -12.7 | -8.9 | -4.4 | 28 |
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WIDE RECEIVERS
| Injury | Avg Weeks Missed | Perc of Players who missed 0 Weeks | Perc of Players who missed 1-2 Weeks | Perc of Players who missed 5+ Weeks | Re-injury Rate | Fantasy Prod. | Fantasy Prod. 1WM | Fantasy Prod. 3WM | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foot Injury | 4.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 32.7 | 7.7 | -13.7 | -22.3 | -17.4 | 52 |
| Turf Toe | 3.4 | NA | NA | NA | 7.1 | -14.1 | -19.3 | NA | 14 |
| Midfoot/Lisfranc | 7.5 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 10 |
| Inversion Ankle Sprain | 1.9 | 47.2 | 32.1 | 15.1 | 11.3 | -15.9 | -22.2 | -8.1 | 53 |
| High Ankle sprain | 4.9 | 3.7 | 29.6 | 44.4 | 14.8 | -17.7 | -17.8 | 10.0 | 27 |
| Calf Strain | 1.8 | 30.0 | 40.0 | 10.0 | 10 | -25.8 | -12.6 | -6.7 | 20 |
| Knee Injury | 2.2 | 34.8 | 30.4 | 12.0 | 4.3 | -10.5 | -4.8 | -11.0 | 92 |
| MCL sprain | 3.0 | NA | NA | NA | 0.0 | -32.8 | -32.8 | -23.3 | 12 |
| Hamstring Strain | 2.5 | 20.3 | 42.3 | 20.3 | 13.6 | -22.6 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 118 |
| Quadriceps Strain | 2.3 | 35.3 | 29.4 | 17.6 | 8.8 | -14.0 | -24.4 | -2.5 | 34 |
| Hip Injury | 1.5 | 61.9 | 23.8 | 14.3 | 0.0 | -23.9 | -28.0 | -21.0 | 21 |
| Groin Strain | 1.5 | 34.2 | 44.7 | 7.9 | 7.9 | -29.7 | -35.1 | -14.1 | 38 |
| Core/Abdomen Injury | 5.6 | NA | NA | NA | 10.5 | -19.1 | -39.1 | -11.0 | 19 |
| Rib Injury | 1.1 | NA | NA | NA | 0.0 | -21.9 | -2.1 | -9.6 | 19 |
| Back Injury | 1.1 | 29.4 | 58.8 | 11.7 | 0.0 | -30.9 | -24.3 | -20.3 | 17 |
| Shoulder Injury | 3.4 | 37.0 | 25.9 | 24.0 | 7.4 | -15.7 | -10.2 | 13.7 | 54 |
| AC Joint Sprain | 5.2 | NA | NA | NA | 20.0 | -17.6 | -17.6 | -2.3 | 10 |
| Hand/Thumb Injury | 2.2 | NA | NA | NA | 0.0 | -16.9 | -30.9 | -13.0 | 16 |
| Concussion | 1.4 | 24.2 | 62.1 | 6.6 | 4.5 | -29.1 | -34.8 | -5.7 | 66 |
TIGHT ENDS
| Injury | Avg Weeks Missed | Perc of Players who missed 0 Weeks | Perc of Players who missed 1-2 Weeks | Perc of Players who missed 5+ Weeks | Re-injury Rate | Fantasy Prod. | Fantasy Prod. 1WM | Fantasy Prod. 3WM | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foot Injury | 5.9 | 10.5 | 15.7 | 57.9 | 4.0 | -27.4 | -25.4 | -11.8 | 19 |
| Inversion Ankle Sprain | 2.3 | 20.0 | 40.0 | 17.1 | 14.3 | -39.4 | -42.4 | -11.9 | 35 |
| Calf Strain | 1.9 | 27.7 | 33.3 | 5.5 | 0.0 | -25.8 | -12.6 | -6.7 | 18 |
| Knee Injury | 2.0 | 35.8 | 30.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | -10.5 | -4.8 | -11.0 | 67 |
| MCL Sprain | 3.9 | NA | NA | NA | 6.3 | -48.0 | -48.0 | -10.7 | 16 |
| Hip Injury | 2.0 | 46.2 | 26.9 | 3.8 | 0.0 | -21.7 | -22.3 | 3.7 | 26 |
| Hamstring Strain | 3.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 30.0 | 15.0 | -19.5 | -16.6 | 4.7 | 20 |
| Groin Strain | 1.4 | NA | NA | NA | 0.0 | -19.7 | -22.5 | 7.0 | 13 |
| Rib Injury | 1.9 | NA | NA | NA | 0.0 | NA | NA | NA | 14 |
| Back Injury | 2.9 | 35.2 | 35.2 | 23.5 | 11.8 | -36.8 | -28.1 | 7.4 | 17 |
| Shoulder Injury | 1.2 | 33.3 | 55.6 | 5.5 | 5.6 | -3.5 | -3.7 | NA | 18 |
| Concussion | 2.6 | 3.4 | 69.0 | 17.2 | 0.0 | -7.6 | -7.5 | 0.9 | 29 |
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"FBG is the best fantasy football advisory service anywhere."
Nigel Eccles, Co-Founder, FanDuel