Footballguys Injury Report: How Injuries Affect Players

Photo: USA Today Sports

Footballguys Nation! My name is Adam Hutchison. I am a full-time physical therapist and fantasy football lover. I am beyond excited to be here, and I have one job: to help you become the best fantasy football manager you can be. My specialty is injuries. Rehabbing people is what I do all day, every day. Unfortunately, I cannot rehabilitate your favorite fantasy player, but what I can do is help you navigate the waters should they get hurt. I was able to crunch the numbers, and I am stoked to roll out the Footballguys Injury Report.

We all agree - injuries suck. However, how you prepare for them and adjust can save your fantasy football season.

Before you read any further, to avoid any confusion, it is important to lay some ground rules. I am not saying that this is exactly what will happen. I do not have a crystal ball, nor should this report be used as one. Like most things in life, context is important. Every injury is unique. The numbers below are averages of NFL players between 2017 and 2022 (6-year sample). The Footballguys Injury Report contains injury timelines and fantasy performance specifically for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. Altogether, there are over 1,500 injuries that are included in this data set.

Questionable vs. Doubtful

Per the NFL rules, when a player is listed as Questionable (Q), there is uncertainty if that player will play that week, while the Doubtful (D) tag means it is unlikely a player will be available. In short, questionable should mean that a player is truly 50/50 that week, and doubtful implies the chances are slim.

Obviously, teams are not always forthcoming when listing players as questionable or doubtful. Some teams are a little more liberal with these labels. However, I wanted to look at the percentages a player played each week when they were listed as either Questionable or Doubtful on the last injury report of the week. In most cases, being labeled with either at the end of the week should be a true indication of an injury.

Questionable Tag

• 71.5% of players played
• 28.5% of players did not play

Doubtful Tag

• 95.1% of players did not play
• 4.9% of players played

Team Tendencies

For whatever reason, there are some teams whose players are less or more likely to play when listed as Questionable. Here are the top three teams in each category. Granted, these samples are a bit small because I am only looking at quarterbacks and skill position players, but nevertheless, these are the trends.

Because I am a curious soul, I wanted to see what team was most likely to have a play actually play even when they are listed as Doubtful. If you remember from above >95% of the time, a player listed as Doubtful did not play. The answer was Tampa Bay again with 40%, but the sample was incredibly small (5). Maybe that can help you during trivia someday.

Positional Volatility

You have likely heard that running backs are more susceptible to injury and that wide receivers are safer picks. It’s one of the foundational pieces of the Zero RB strategy. It would appear there is some truth to that theory. Here are graphs showing the range of outcomes for QB, RB, WR, and TE to play a full season game merely based on historical comps for fantasy-relevant players, not taking ADP or injury history into consideration. Below these graphs is the probability that each position plays a full season and at least 12 games