The Gut Check No.590: Is Rashid Shaheed the Key to the Saints' Success?

Photo: Ken Blaze, USA Today Sports

Silly FAntasy GMs...

Did you really think this feature would be about Rashid Shaheed having massive fantasy success? C'mon now, Shaheed was a rookie UDFA in 2022 with 28 catches and 2 touchdowns in 11 games. Does that sound like a player who is a vital part of the offensive puzzle in New Orleans?

If you suspend your dogged pursuit of individual performances that drives your fantasy life for a few minutes and embrace the team game of football, you might just discover that Shaheed is that player—even if he doesn't become a fantasy starter.

Don't write off Shaheed, either. He is a compelling late-round value for fantasy GMs this summer. In fact, most of the Saints' offense offers draft-day values across the board at quarterback, wide receiver, tight end, and running back.

That's the true focus of this week's Gut Check: Shaheed's skills make him the component that could take New Orleans to heights it hasn't seen in over a decade.

Why Is Shaheed the Key to the SAints' Success?

Let's begin with the list of talents on the roster that we consider more valuable from a fantasy perspective.

Chris Olave topped 1,000 yards as a rookie and is one of the best young wideouts in the league. Three-time Pro Bowl option Michael Thomas is finally expected to be healthy and on a mission to prove that he's still a 100-catch, 1,300-yard performer.

Derek Carr is absolutely the key to the Saints achieving at least a baseline of offensive success. He has been on a verge of a fantasy breakthrough with over 7.5 yards per attempt and no worse than a 67 percent completion percentage during three of the past four years.

Alvin Kamara, the team's most versatile weapon, is expected to miss a significant amount of starts due to an assault charge that's going to trial. He might be the most dangerous weapon for New Orleans. Jamaal Williams showed last year that he's capable of red-zone excellence in addition to displaying the versatility of an every-down runner.

Don't forget the Saints are three-deep at the position. If necessary, Kendre Miller has the talent to become a lead NFL back if called upon.

Add tight ends Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau to the mix — two players capable of earning fantasy TE1 value — and you have seven options with a reasonable shot to deliver starter production in fantasy leagues. The realistic upside scenario is 3-5 delivering this production.

Shaheed is the key to the Saints' success, but I'm not talking about the minimum criteria for a successful season. I'm talking about the potential for a wildly successful year. Carr hitting on all cylinders and finally delivering as a top-fantasy producer who supports 4-5 strong fantasy starters.

Keep that fantasy-oriented focus on individuals suspended just a little longer. Wildly successful offenses in real football stretch the field in multiple dimensions with their personnel and force opposing defenses into difficult choices.

Do we roll our coverage toward Thomas and leave Olave one-on-one?

Do we double Olave and use a high-low coverage with multiple defenders on Thomas and give up a size or speed mismatch with one of the Saints' tight ends or backs?

Do we play tight man-to-man and blitz Carr?

These and several more in-game choices depend on the game script, down and distance, and the talents of the offensive personnel. In order to create these potential binds for the defense, the offense must possess one component that can exploit mistakes or force the defense to overcompensate in one area of the field.

That component is speed. Although an overrated commodity for most roles on offense, it's vital for a team to have at least one option who can force defenses into these tough decisions.

When an offense has two or more, it accelerates the potential for that unit to deliver above and beyond its baseline expectation.

WHAT SHAHEED BRINGS TO THE OFFENSE

Shaheed is the key to the Saints' offense because as that second speedster in the receiving corps, he's the final component that can transform a competent offense into a dynamic, top-end unit.

Having one speedster on a team can open the field for underneath options. Olave is the Saints' primary option with the speed and route skills to get open anywhere on the field with any pattern. He will command the attention of opposing defenses as the initial read and force coverage to make him the first priority.

Without a second speedster like Shaheed, Olave can run off defenders who otherwise might be in the area to help with Michael Thomas, Juwan Johnson, Foster Moreau, or the running backs executing downfield routes. However, many opposing defenses will live with the strategy of limiting Olave and forcing the Saints to piece together 10-, 12-, and 15-play drives in order to score.

A healthy Thomas and two good tight ends can enhance the chances of converting long drives. Without Shaheed, the Saints have enough options to deliver competent offensive production. With Shaheed, they can make opponents pay for paying too much attention to Olave.

It's no longer as easy for the defense to force protracted drives with Shaheed's field-flipping skills. Shaheed and Olave can also stretch the field vertically and horizontally within the same play, increasing the risk of more coverage breakdowns that benefits their teammates.

Because Olave is an all-around monster in the making as a primary receiver and Thomas is one of the most skilled options within a range of 25 yards, Shaheed doesn't need to be a fully-realized wideout. At a minimum, he can be what he was last year and still help the Saints become an offensive force.

Based on last year's film, Shaheed earned the trust of the team as a vertical threat who earns separation in the vertical game and as an underneath option against off-coverage.