Photo: USA Today Sports

Merriam-Webster defines a "breakout" as "a success or accomplishment, especially in comparison to previous efforts." But for IDP managers, breakouts mean something else.

They mean championships.

Nothing beats drafting a player just before a breakout season—especially if that player is available for a reasonable cost on draft day. Success in fantasy football is all about value. And nothing says value more than getting an IDP for a discount just before he has the best season of his NFL career.

Unfortunately, however, that's not always possible. When the entire IDP community expects a breakout season from a certain player, that drives that player's asking price on draft day that much higher—sometimes to the point that a player goes from a potential league-winning value pick to a risky bet if that player doesn't break out.

For that reason, we're going to establish a pair of ground rules for these breakouts. The first is that any player who has posted a top-24 fantasy season is out—they have already broken out. The second is that any player being drafted among the top 20 at their position is excluded.

It's why you won't see Aidan Hutchinson of the Detroit Lions, Kayvon Thibodeaux of the New York Giants, and Jaelan Phillips of the Miami Dolphins listed here. Hutchinson was a low-end DL2 last year as a rookie, and all three players are being selected among the top 12 at the position this year.

All three could have massive seasons—but they carry lofty asking prices.

So, we're going to look a little farther down the list at players for whom a big 2023 could be in the cards and who carry reasonable price tags in IDP drafts this summer.

DE Rashan Gary, Green Bay Packers

Gary might well appear to be the oddest name on this list—the 25-year-old tore his ACL last November in a loss to the New York Giants. But as Matt Schneidman wrote for the Athletic, Gary is attacking his rehab with maniacal vigor this summer.

"He has been rehabbing extensively on the side at practice and looks like he could get three sacks in a game right now," he said. "I'm exaggerating — I understand non-contact rehab is different than rushing the quarterback in an NFL game — but if there's anyone who can return to elite form after a major injury, it's Rashan Gary. He's a freak, and he just looks angry when he rehabs. He tore his ACL on Nov. 6. The Packers' first game is on Sept. 10. That's more than 10 months, right around the time when we'd expect Gary to return. Don't be surprised if he's playing Week 1 in Chicago."

Trusting any player coming off an ACL tear is admittedly risky. But plenty of managers are doing so with Breece Hall, and the New York Jets running back carries an exponentially higher draft cost. Two years ago, Gary posted 47 total tackles and 9.5 sacks on the way to finishing 29th among defensive linemen in fantasy points. Boost those numbers just a bit with Gary's first 10-sack season, and you have a bargain DL2.

DE George Karlaftis, Kansas City Chiefs

An argument can be made that Karlaftis already broke out. From Week 12 last year, Karlaftis notched at least half a sack in six of seven games and ranked inside the top-25 defensive linemen in fantasy points. Now, the former Purdue standout plans to build on that success in his second professional season.

"Trying to be as complete of a player as possible," Karlaftis said via Jesse Newell of the Kansas City Star. "Not [have] people saying, ‘Oh, he's not good enough in the run,' or, ‘He's not a good enough pass rusher,' or anything like that. Just being a complete player. Just to experience every one of those games and go into the offseason — watching film, taking those mental reps in the offseason, then enhancing your physical just builds you up for a bigger and better season. Anything you can do really to help the team."

Karlaftis admittedly needs to get better against the run to become a true IDP stalwart, but he was solid in that respect in college. With Frank Clark out of town, Karlaftis should see a sizable bump in snaps in 2023. It's not unusual for edge rushers to take a big step forward in their second seasons, and Karlaftis does that the top 15 (or even the top 12) could be within reach.

DE Kwity Paye, Indianapolis Colts

This is rather a repeat conversation with Paye, who was on a lot of "breakout" lists in 2022. And for a time, it appeared that call was going to pay off—Paye had seven tackles and two sacks in the opener and was a top-20 IDP option over the first month of the season. But from there, Paye faded, missing five games on the way to a DL51 finish. Per Joel Erickson of the Indy Star, Paye said that his focus this offseason has been staying on the field in 2023.

"I did a lot of rehab on my ankle because the high ankle sprain just bothered me," Paye said. "Even after I came back, it was still lingering, so I took care of that. In the past, I've had soft-tissue injuries, so just making sure I stay on top of my yoga, my stretching, making sure I stay flexible. I'm just doing everything I can on my part to stay healthy."

That ankle injury not only cost Paye five games but also clearly limited him in others—especially down the stretch. Even then, the former first-round pick out of Michigan still finished inside the top 25 among defensive linemen in fantasy points per game. Last year's disappointment has cooled many IDP drafters on Paye. But he's still the same guy some posited could threaten the top 12 last season. Maybe they were just a year early.