At this point in the season, Close Calls aren't just frustrating. Maddening, even. They can make or break the whole year.
Sure, there are times when there's just nothing fantasy managers can do—no matter how obvious a fantasy start may look, sometimes that player just faceplants. Or gets hurt. It's unavoidable. Inevitable. Like Thanos.
But more often than not, it's the Close Calls that determine whether a week ends in victory or defeat. It's the decision fantasy managers had to make at RB2 because of bye weeks. The WR3 call that was forced by injuries at the position. The "flex" play that just got snatched off the waiver wire.
Fantasy matchups aren't won by the studs. They are won on the fringes. The studs are expected to produce. But choose wisely on the fringes, and it can be the difference between victory and defeat—at a time in the season when the difference between victory and defeat can be the difference between the postseason and packing it in in a few weeks.
To make the right Close Calls, sometimes you have to be prepared to get a little crazy.
Fortunately, if there's one thing this writer knows, it's crazy.
Every week, we're going to look at some of the closest calls. Make the case for both players. And then offer up this analyst's take on which player is the correct play.
For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in Footballguys' Weekly Rankings. If you are trying to decide between Josh Allen and Jordan Love at quarterback, it really doesn't matter who you pick.
But it's still obviously Allen.
Week 10 Close Calls
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland (QB16) vs. Geno Smith, NY Jets (QB18)
The Case for Watson: Watson missed last week's loss to New Orleans with a concussion, but he had been playing well before the injury, tallying two straight starts with 300-plus passing yards. Now Watson will take on his old team, the Houston Texans, and Ray Kuhn of Fantrax HQ sees some payback coming.
"The Texans rank toward the bottom of the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks this season," he said. "We have a quarterback playing at a high level facing a defense that has struggled at pass defense all season. Rookie wide receivers KC Concepcion Jr. and Denzel Boston are now starting to come into their own. With 1,806 yards and seven touchdowns this season, Watson has been surprisingly successful. Now we count on the matchup and his weapons to help that continue."
The Case for Smith: The Jets aren't winning games, but the blame can't be laid at the feet of Smith—if anything, he's played well enough to be brought back as a "bridge" starter in 2027. Smith has had his moments in fantasy as well, and Matt De Lima of The Big Lead expects him to shake off a rough outing against the Chiefs last week and have another at home against the Bills in Week 10.
"Buffalo is a much easier assignment than Kansas City, which allows 13.9 points per game to quarterbacks, third-fewest," he wrote. "The Bills have allowed 15 touchdown passes against four interceptions in seven games, and opposing quarterbacks average 269 passing yards against them. Game script helps too. Buffalo ranks second in expected points added per play on offense, per SumerSports, and the 2-7 Jets will likely be throwing to keep up."
The Verdict: Smith. The Jets should get wide receiver Garrett Wilson back from the concussion protocol this week. The Bills are 29th in the league in pass defense. And there's more than a little "garbage time" potential here if the Bills get staked to a lead Sunday.
OK—when the Bills get staked to a lead Sunday.
Corey Kiner, New England (RB22) vs. Audric Estimé, New Orleans (RB23)
The Case for Kiner: The hits just keep on coming for the New England Patriots backfield—with TreVeyon Henderson already on the shelf with a mystery illness, the Pats watched Rhamondre Stevenson go down with a knee injury in last week's loss to the Green Bay Packers. Per Justin Boone of Yahoo, that could elevate Kiner to the top spot against the Lions this week in Germany.
"Though Kiner hasn't been asked to do much as a pass-catcher, the 2025 UDFA has shown some juice in the run game by topping 50 yards in three of his last five outings in a change-of-pace role," he said. "If Stevenson can't suit up in Week 10, which seems the likely case due to news that he'll probably miss some time, Kiner immediately becomes a high-end fantasy RB3 with the usual touchdown upside that comes with a starter's workload."
The Case for Estime: Estime was surprisingly the lead running back for the Saints in last week's overtime win over the Cleveland Browns, turning 16 touches into 77 yards and a touchdown. It appears that Estime will serve in that same role Sunday against the Panthers, and Steve Schwarz of FFToday wrote that means Estime is a viable second fantasy starter.
"Kendre Miller was waived, and Alvin Kamara has become the No.2 back in New Orleans to Audric Estimé," he said. "His first chance to start results in decent rushing totals (15-72-1) and 14.7 fantasy points. In going up against the Panthers in Week 10, he faces the 28th-ranked run defense, allowing 27.6 fantasy points per game. Estime should get about 70% of that total.
The Verdict: Kiner. This has a lot less to do with Stevenson practicing than it does the matchup—it would be a sizable upset (and quite possibly dumb) if Stevenson plays this week. But even if Kiner gets a lead back's share of the backfield touches, they will come against a Lions run defense allowing less than 95 yards on the ground per game. The Panthers have allowed 133.4.
