IDP Matchups, Living the Stream: Week 18

Photo: Kevin Jairaj, USA Today Sports

There are a number of valid reasons not to play a fantasy championship in Week 18. Teams who have clinched playoff spots could rest starters. Teams with nothing left to play for will rest dinged-up starters who would have played in games that counted. Players may come off the field mid-game on Sunday as circumstances bring the playoff picture into clearer focus. It makes the week something of a crapshoot—and crapshoots aren't good juju in Championship Week.

However, that doesn't stop some fantasy managers from playing in leagues where the title game is in Week 18. And to be fair, the impact usually isn't as profound on the IDP side as on offense. But it happens—there will be prominent defensive players who do not play in Week 18 who absolutely would have if it was Week 8.

I don't judge—I'm in two IDP-only leagues that play the Championship Game in Week 18.

The key to success in those leagues (and I have had a lot) is acknowledging that this isn't Week 17. Or Week 7. It's a week unlike any other. Healthy stars will sit. Backups will win fantasy championships.

And the right matchup play can rule the day.

It's been a pleasure to pen Season 2 of Living the Stream. With any luck, Season 3 will be that much better.

DE DeMarcus Lawrence, Dallas (at Washington)

Micah Parsons gets all the run when folks talk about the edge rushers for the Dallas Cowboys, but the truth is that the team is pretty loaded at the position. And while DeMarcus Lawrence hasn't had the best numbers of his long career in 2023, as Lions head coach Dan Campbell said, sleeping on the 31-year-old isn't a good idea for opponents.

"They've got two of the best ends in the league; one of them is, I think, the best rusher in the league, and that's Parsons," Campbell told reporters. "And the other, (Lawrence), you know you can't sleep on this guy. And I don't think any of us slept on him, but people forget he's a complete defensive end. He plays the run, he's stout, he's explosive, and he can rush the passer. So, you got those two."

Lawrence didn't have a sack against the Lions, but he did tally five tackles, two tackles for loss, a QB hit, and a pass defensed. If the Cowboys win Sunday's game, they win the NFC East and the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The Commanders have allowed over 60 sacks this season, and Washington has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to defensive ends this season.

DE Josh Sweat, Philadelphia (at NY Giants)

After the Eagles logged 70 sacks in 2022, regression was coming. It's like a 15-touchdown season—nearly impossible to repeat. And edge rusher Josh Sweat has been part of that regression—his sacks are down from 11 in 2022 to 6.5 in 2023. But Sweat told reporters that if you look past basic stats, he and the Eagles are just as disruptive as ever.

"It's like the holy grail number," Sweat said. "If you want to question it, you can just turn on the film and see how close I am. We've been battling with pass defense all year, whether that's D-line, whether that's secondary, whatever. The ball's been out fast as s—. I'm winning. I got more pressures this year than I had probably combined in my career, more hits and I'm winning (rushes). It's just not showing up how I want it to. I'm affecting the quarterback. That's all I can say. I am affecting the quarterback more than I ever have in my career, at a higher level than I ever have in my career, won more rushes. The sacks just haven't been hitting, but I've been rushing better than I have in my career."

Two weeks ago against the New York Giants, Sweat had just one solo, and the Eagles logged just one sack. But the Giants have surrendered (and I kid you not) 83 sacks this season—20 more than any other team. The Eagles need this win (and a Dallas loss) to avoid entering the postseason as a slumping Wild Card as opposed to NFC East champions. If that defense doesn't go off Sunday, Philly's season will end a week later.

LB Oren Burks, San Francisco (vs. LA Rams)

This is a Week 18 call in the truest sense—both three-down starting linebackers (Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner) for the 49ers are relatively healthy now. But the Niners also have the NFC's No. 1 seed sewn up, so it's possible the team will rest at least one. As Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury-News wrote, that's because the 49ers linebacker corps considers itself the NFL's, well, gold standard.

"I know, just for our system, we need athletic linebackers that can play in space," defensive assistant Nick Sorensen said, "and they are more convert guys, that have been safeties or secondary players in high school and college, who are coming in and playing linebacker for us. They want to be the best in the world, you know, and that's kind of been the mantra for a while around here with the 'backers."

Burks hasn't started a game this season, but the sixth-year veteran has stepped in at times for both Warner and Greenlaw this year and has been relatively productive doing so. If Burks isn't rostered in your IDP league, he should be—one linebacker sitting opens the door. If Greenlaw and Warner both sit (or play limited snaps), Burks will sail past his season high in tackles (8) for the season.

LB Eric Wilson, Green Bay (vs. Chicago)

Both De'Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker have missed substantial time this season, and when that happened, the team called on Isaiah McDuffie. McDuffie spent more than a little time as the defensive play-caller and has four games with 10-plus tackles.

There's a problem for the fantasy managers who scooped McDuffie off the waiver wire, though—he landed in the league's concussion protocol last week against the Vikings. That could mean significant snaps for journeyman Eric Wilson this week in a must-win game against the Chicago Bears, but defensive coordinator Joe Barry told reporters he's confident Wilson can fill the void if needed.

It just goes back to guys being pros and guys preparing and guys being locked in for every meeting," he said, "every walk-through because you never truly know when your moment is going to come or how it's going to be, and Eric specifically does a phenomenal job with that."

If De'Vondre Campbell (neck) and McDuffie sit, Wilson gets a to-10 IDP matchup with a Bears team looking to play spoiler. Wilson has posted gonzo weeks in the past.

If you have a hole—think Week 18.

S Jordan Battle, Cincinnati (vs. Cleveland)

In this last LTS of 2023, we are focusing the Stream on one defensive back—on one defensive back who will lead the Week 18 crowd to glory. That his last name is Battle is fitting.

Frankly, I expected Battle to be Cincy's starting box safety from the jump—partly because, as he told reporters, he's been playing for what amounts to an NFL defense for most of the past several years.

"I feel like playing at Alabama prepared me well for this level," Battle said. "There's a high level of expectation, attention to detail, and constant communication in that program. So, when I transitioned to the NFL, I already had a good understanding of how crucial communication and play recognition are."

The Bengals face a Browns team this week that has zero to play for—they are the No. 5 seed in the AFC, win or lose. The Bengals have nothing to play for—they were eliminated from the playoffs last week. But Battle's a rookie who has started part of a season and needs all the reps he can get.

Don't be surprised if Battle leads the Bengals in tackles in a slopfest.

If Battle isn't available, consider New York Giants safety Jason Pinnock in a plus matchup with the Eagles.

Okay. So, the Stream dribbled a little.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter at @IDPSharks